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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company.It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others.The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states.


In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business.Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry.HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on DINO

HF Sinclair's recent performance has been driven by strong refining margins, particularly in the Mid-Con and West Coast regions. The company's Q2 2025 earnings beat estimates, with net income attributable to HF Sinclair stockholders of $208 million, or $1.10 per diluted share. A series of debt management activities, including a $500 million Senior Notes offering and a cash tender offer, have also contributed to the company's positive momentum. Additionally, the company's upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release and conference webcast, scheduled for October 30, 2025, are anticipated to provide further insights into its financial performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. HF Sinclair's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

HF Sinclair reported a strong third quarter, with adjusted net income of $459 million or $2.44 per diluted share, significantly beating analyst estimates of $1.94. The company's revenue growth was driven by sequential improvements in refining throughput and capture, as well as continued reductions in operating costs. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $870 million, up from $316 million in the same period last year. The company's Refining segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $661 million, driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins in both the West and Mid-Con regions.

Publication Date: Nov -02

📋 Highlights
  • Record Low Operating Expenses:: Achieved $7.12 per throughput barrel, surpassing the $7.25 target, driving efficiency gains.
  • Shareholder Returns:: Returned $254M in Q3 ($166M share buybacks, $94M dividends) and over $4.5B since 2022 acquisition.
  • Refining Margin Boost:: SREs provided $115M lower COGS and $56M higher RINs revenue, boosting gross margins in Q3.
  • Marketing EBITDA Record:: Generated $29M EBITDA with $0.11/gallon adjusted gross margin, reflecting strong retail performance.
  • Adjusted Net Income Surge:: $459M (vs. $96M in Q3 2024) at $2.44/share, excluding special items, driven by refining margin expansion.

Operational Highlights

The company achieved a record low operating expense of $7.12 per throughput barrel and delivered its second-highest quarter of throughput on record. The Marketing segment also performed well, with record EBITDA of $29 million and an adjusted gross margin of $0.11 per gallon. As Timothy Go noted, "We're pleased with the progress we've made on capture, despite headwinds on roll and crude diffs."

Refining Margin Capture and Outlook

The company's refining margin capture is expected to improve in Q4, driven by a better roll and a good make and mix of distillate components over gasoline. As Steven Ledbetter explained, "The roll, which is impactful for us, seems to be in a better position, and we have a good make and mix of distillate components over gasoline." The company's near-term outlook for refining margins is positive, driven by the current market environment.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a P/E Ratio of 24.46 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.27, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield of 3.88% is also attractive, indicating a commitment to returning cash to shareholders. As the company continues to optimize its assets and return excess cash to shareholders, its valuation metrics will be closely watched by investors.

Growth Initiatives and Capital Allocation

The company is investing in growth initiatives, including a multiphase expansion of its midstream refined products footprint across PADD 4 and PADD 5. The company is also evaluating inorganic opportunities and organic growth projects, with a focus on returning excess cash to shareholders. As Timothy Go noted, "We think there are opportunities to do some inorganic bolt-ons to accelerate our strategy."

3. NewsRoom

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HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Given Consensus Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Are Oils-Energy Stocks Lagging HF Sinclair (DINO) This Year?

Nov -28

Source: zacks.com

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HF Sinclair Corporation $DINO Shares Purchased by Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc.

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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EPD or DINO: Which Energy Stock Boasts Better Prospects?

Nov -25

Source: zacks.com

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Distillate Deficit: How DINO is Positioned to Profit From Strong Margins

Nov -24

Source: zacks.com

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Creative Planning Raises Position in HF Sinclair Corporation $DINO

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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HF Sinclair: Peak Cycle Might Be Here, But Shareholder Distributions Likely To Continue

Nov -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Mason Hawkins' Strategic Moves: Rayonier Inc. Takes Center Stage with 6.09% Portfolio Share

Nov -14

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.20%)

6. Segments

Refining

Expected Growth: 3.83%

HF Sinclair Corporation's refining segment growth of 3.83% is driven by increased demand for refined products, improved refining margins, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and investments in growth projects have contributed to the segment's growth.

Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.83%

HF Sinclair Corporation's 4.83% growth in Marketing is driven by increasing demand for refined products, strategic acquisitions, and investments in renewable energy. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and effective supply chain management have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, HF Sinclair's diversified revenue streams and strong brand presence have enabled the company to capitalize on market opportunities and drive growth.

Lubricants & Specialties

Expected Growth: 4.65%

HF Sinclair Corporation's Lubricants & Specialties segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand for high-performance lubricants in the automotive and industrial sectors, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into new markets and product lines, as well as its focus on operational efficiency and cost savings.

Renewables

Expected Growth: 10.5%

HF Sinclair Corporation's 10.5% growth in Renewables is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, government incentives, and declining production costs. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in wind and solar energy, as well as its partnerships with leading technology providers, have enabled it to capitalize on the growing trend towards renewable energy sources.

Midstream

Expected Growth: 4.7%

HF Sinclair Corporation's Midstream segment growth of 4.7% is driven by increased volumes from its logistics and storage assets, strategic acquisitions, and expansion projects. Additionally, favorable crude oil differentials, strong demand for refined products, and a low-cost operating structure contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

HF Sinclair Corporation refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and asphalt.

Renewable Diesel

HF Sinclair Corporation produces renewable diesel, a low-carbon alternative to traditional diesel fuel, from renewable feedstocks.

Lubricants

HF Sinclair Corporation manufactures a range of lubricants, including motor oils, gear oils, and hydraulic fluids.

Asphalt

HF Sinclair Corporation produces asphalt, a petroleum-based product used in road construction and maintenance.

Petroleum Coke

HF Sinclair Corporation produces petroleum coke, a byproduct of the refining process, used as fuel or in industrial applications.

Sulfur

HF Sinclair Corporation produces sulfur, a byproduct of the refining process, used in the production of fertilizers and other chemicals.

8. HF Sinclair Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

HF Sinclair Corporation operates in the energy industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative energy sources, they are not yet widely adopted, and the company's products remain in high demand.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

HF Sinclair Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand presence and limited alternatives in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

HF Sinclair Corporation's suppliers have some bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them for raw materials. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the energy industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. HF Sinclair Corporation faces intense rivalry from its competitors, which can lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.34%
Debt Cost 7.75%
Equity Weight 76.66%
Equity Cost 10.46%
WACC 9.83%
Leverage 30.44%

11. Quality Control: HF Sinclair Corporation passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Alliance Resource Partners

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.7

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Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

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HF Sinclair

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Sunoco

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

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PBF Energy

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Valvoline

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

50.07$

Current Price

50.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows