Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company.It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others.The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states.


In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business.Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry.HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on DINO

Breaking News: HF Sinclair Corporation reported Q4 earnings of $1.2 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share. This compares to a loss of $1.02 per share a year ago. The company also announced an investigation into possible violations of federal securities laws by Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP, The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz, and Block & Leviton. HF Sinclair shareholders who lost money are urged to contact these law firms. HF Sinclair Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript is available. Analysts recommend hold.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. HF Sinclair Corporation Delivers Solid Full-Year 2025 Results

HF Sinclair Corporation reported adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000 for full-year 2025, with the fourth quarter contributing $564,000,000. The company's refining business experienced seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter, but its midstream, lubricants, and marketing segments contributed positively. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.44, beating estimates of $1.94. Revenue growth for next year is estimated at 1.9%, indicating a stable outlook.

Publication Date: Feb -19

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA:: $2.3 billion, with Q4 at $564 million despite seasonal refining weakness.
  • Shareholder Returns:: $230 million returned in Q4 via dividends and buybacks; $724 million total in 2025, reducing shares by 64 million since 2022.
  • RINs Waivers Impact:: EPA-granted waivers boosted adjusted refining gross margin by $313 million.
  • Marketing Segment Growth:: 37% EBITDA increase to $103 million in 2025, with 117 new branded retail sites added.
  • Midstream Record Performance:: $459 million annual adjusted EBITDA, targeting FID on a $125M growth capital pipeline project in 2026.

Segment Performance

The refining segment saw a decrease in operating costs by $87,000,000 year over year, with operating expense per throughput barrel at $7.67. The marketing segment delivered a record annual EBITDA of $103,000,000, a 37% increase over the prior record, driven by a net gain of 117 branded sites. The lubricants and specialties segment reported annual EBITDA of $261,000,000, despite lower sales volumes and the turnaround at the Mississauga facility.

Strategic Initiatives

The company formed Green Trail Fuels LLC, a joint venture with U-Pop Holdings, to expand its branded marketing footprint in the Rockies and Southwest. This joint venture is expected to be accretive to the corporation, with attractive multiples and access to rack-to-retail economics. The company is also progressing with its westward expansion pipeline project, which will be accretive to the entire value chain.

Outlook and Valuation

For 2026, HF Sinclair expects to spend approximately $650,000,000 in sustaining capital and $125,000,000 in growth capital investments. The company's refining segment is expected to run between 585,000-615,000 barrels per day of crude oil. With a P/E Ratio of 16.28 and an EV/EBITDA of 6.63, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield stands at 3.88%, indicating a relatively attractive return for investors. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 6.23%, and its net debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.04, indicating a manageable debt burden.

Management's Confidence

Management remains confident in the company's outlook, citing a constructive margin environment due to a short global supply-demand balance and tightness in the U.S. market. The company's efforts to optimize its feedstock strategy and improve catalyst efficiency are expected to drive future growth. As Steven C. Ledbetter mentioned, "we see this as a new avenue to really accelerate the growth and unlock the full potential of our brand." With a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders, HF Sinclair is well-positioned for continued success.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

HF Sinclair ALERT: Securities Fraud Investigation by Block & Leviton Could Allow DINO Shareholders to Recover Losses

Feb -20

Source: newsfilecorp.com

Card image cap

Here Are Thursday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Analog Devices, Chewy, Credo Technology, eBay, Fiverr, Shopify, Verizon, and More

Feb -19

Source: 247wallst.com

Card image cap

Why HF Sinclair Stock Swooned on Wednesday

Feb -19

Source: fool.com

Card image cap

Securities Fraud Investigation Into HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged to Contact Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm

Feb -18

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

Securities Fraud Investigation Into HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz

Feb -18

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Shareholders Who Lost Money – Contact Law Offices of Howard G. Smith About Securities Fraud Investigation

Feb -18

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

HF Sinclair: Management Turmoil Creates An Overhang

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.20%)

6. Segments

Refining

Expected Growth: 3.83%

HF Sinclair Corporation's refining segment growth of 3.83% is driven by increased demand for refined products, improved refining margins, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and investments in growth projects have contributed to the segment's growth.

Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.83%

HF Sinclair Corporation's 4.83% growth in Marketing is driven by increasing demand for refined products, strategic acquisitions, and investments in renewable energy. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and effective supply chain management have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, HF Sinclair's diversified revenue streams and strong brand presence have enabled the company to capitalize on market opportunities and drive growth.

Lubricants & Specialties

Expected Growth: 4.65%

HF Sinclair Corporation's Lubricants & Specialties segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand for high-performance lubricants in the automotive and industrial sectors, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into new markets and product lines, as well as its focus on operational efficiency and cost savings.

Renewables

Expected Growth: 10.5%

HF Sinclair Corporation's 10.5% growth in Renewables is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, government incentives, and declining production costs. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in wind and solar energy, as well as its partnerships with leading technology providers, have enabled it to capitalize on the growing trend towards renewable energy sources.

Midstream

Expected Growth: 4.7%

HF Sinclair Corporation's Midstream segment growth of 4.7% is driven by increased volumes from its logistics and storage assets, strategic acquisitions, and expansion projects. Additionally, favorable crude oil differentials, strong demand for refined products, and a low-cost operating structure contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Refined Products

HF Sinclair Corporation refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and asphalt.

Renewable Diesel

HF Sinclair Corporation produces renewable diesel, a low-carbon alternative to traditional diesel fuel, from renewable feedstocks.

Lubricants

HF Sinclair Corporation manufactures a range of lubricants, including motor oils, gear oils, and hydraulic fluids.

Asphalt

HF Sinclair Corporation produces asphalt, a petroleum-based product used in road construction and maintenance.

Petroleum Coke

HF Sinclair Corporation produces petroleum coke, a byproduct of the refining process, used as fuel or in industrial applications.

Sulfur

HF Sinclair Corporation produces sulfur, a byproduct of the refining process, used in the production of fertilizers and other chemicals.

8. HF Sinclair Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

HF Sinclair Corporation operates in the energy industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative energy sources, they are not yet widely adopted, and the company's products remain in high demand.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

HF Sinclair Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand presence and limited alternatives in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

HF Sinclair Corporation's suppliers have some bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them for raw materials. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the energy industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. HF Sinclair Corporation faces intense rivalry from its competitors, which can lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.34%
Debt Cost 7.75%
Equity Weight 76.66%
Equity Cost 10.46%
WACC 9.83%
Leverage 30.44%

11. Quality Control: HF Sinclair Corporation passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Alliance Resource Partners

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
HF Sinclair

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Sunoco

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
PBF Energy

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Valvoline

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

49.59$

Current Price

49.59$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows