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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Personalis, Inc.operates as a cancer genomics company worldwide.The company provides sequencing and data analysis services to support the development of cancer therapies and large-scale genetic research programs.


It offers NeXT Platform, which provides data analysis for tumor and its immune microenvironment, from a single limited tissue or plasma sample; ImmunoID Next for tumor profiling from tissue; NeXT Liquid Biopsy for tumor profiling from plasma; NeXT Personal, a liquid biopsy offering for personalized tumor tracking for patients; NeXT Dx Test, a genomic cancer profiling test enabling composite biomarkers for cancer treatment; and NeXT SHERPA and NeXT NEOPS for neoantigen prediction capabilities.The company also provides ACE platform for clinical and therapeutic applications such as neoantigen prediction, biomarker identification, and novel drug target selection.It serves biopharmaceutical customers, universities, non-profits, and government entities.


The company has partnership with Mayo Clinic; MapKure, LLC; SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc.; and Moores Cancer Center.Personalis, Inc.was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on PSNL

The recent 3 months performance of Personalis, Inc. was negatively impacted by the company's struggles with profitability, despite its strong financial position and promising products like NeXT Personal and ImmunoID NeXT. The company's test reimbursement issues have affected its gross margins, and profitability is projected to be years away, possibly until 2029. Additionally, the company's partnerships with Tempus AI and Merck provide capital and credibility, but have not yet translated into significant revenue growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Personalis Delivers Strong Q3 Revenue, Driven by Clinical Test Growth

Personalis reported revenue of $14.5 million in Q3, exceeding the high end of their estimate. The company's clinical test volume grew 26% sequentially and 364% year-over-year to 4,388 tests. However, total company revenue declined 44% compared to the same period last year, driven by the expected decline in revenue from Natera and the VA MVP. Biopharma revenue was $13.2 million, a 16% decrease from the prior year. The company's EPS loss was $0.24, beating estimates of $0.28. Personalis finished the quarter with a strong balance sheet, holding $150.5 million in cash and short-term investments.

Publication Date: Nov -20

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Test Growth:: Q3 revenue reached $14.5M, with 4,388 clinical tests (+26% QoQ, +364% YoY).<br>
  • Full-Year Guidance:: Revised 2025 revenue to $68–73M, with a net loss of ~$85M expected for the year.<br>
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Ended Q3 with $150.5M in cash and short-term investments, no debt except minor equipment loans.<br>
  • MolDX Coverage Progress:: Three dossiers under review, aiming for two approvals by year-end to unlock Medicare coverage.<br>
  • Biopharma Account Potential:: Current large pharma accounts (~$5M) poised to grow as clinical trial demand for MRD testing expands.<br>

Clinical Test Volume Growth Drives Revenue

The company's clinical test volume growth was a highlight in Q3, with 4,388 tests delivered, representing a 26% sequential increase and 364% year-over-year growth. According to Christopher Hall, the company is "carefully managing investment, building demand, and managing the investment ahead of reimbursement." This growth is expected to continue, with the market for these types of tests projected to mature into a $20-plus billion opportunity.

Biopharma Revenue and Pipeline

Biopharma revenue was $13.2 million in Q3, a 16% decrease from the prior year. However, the company is optimistic about its biopharma pipeline, with a "rapidly growing pipeline and funnel for MRD, and orders for MRD projects continuing to grow." The company is working with top biopharma companies, where it's spending large amounts on clinical trials, and is focused on penetrating these accounts further.

Guidance and Outlook

Personalis revised its full-year revenue guidance to $68 million to $73 million and expects a net loss of approximately $85 million. The company expects to end the year with more than $130 million in cash on its balance sheet. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 20.3%. With a current P/S Ratio of 13.4, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations.

Valuation and Metrics

The company's valuation metrics indicate a high-growth expectation, with a P/S Ratio of 13.4 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of -10.54. The ROE and ROIC are -38.25% and -39.15%, respectively, indicating significant losses. However, with a strong balance sheet and growing clinical test volume, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for its services.

3. NewsRoom

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Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Purchases Shares of 68,679 Personalis, Inc. $PSNL

Nov -21

Source: defenseworld.net

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Personalis to Participate in the Piper Sandler 37th Annual Healthcare Conference

Nov -18

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis Announces Medicare Coverage for Ultrasensitive MRD Test in Breast Cancer

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis, Inc. (PSNL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Personalis (PSNL) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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Personalis Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -04

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Oct -21

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis (PSNL) Moves 20.5% Higher: Will This Strength Last?

Oct -17

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.75%)

6. Segments

Pharma Tests and Services

Expected Growth: 10.8%

Personalis, Inc.'s Pharma Tests and Services segment growth of 10.8% is driven by increasing adoption of precision medicine, growing demand for biomarker discovery, and expansion of its sequencing-based testing services. Additionally, strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and increasing investment in research and development are contributing to the segment's growth.

Enterprise

Expected Growth: 10.43%

Personalis, Inc.'s 10.43% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its precision medicine platform, expansion into new therapeutic areas, and strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, growing demand for personalized cancer therapies and increasing investment in genomics research contribute to the company's rapid growth.

Population Sequencing

Expected Growth: 11.67%

Personalis, Inc.'s 11.67% growth in Population Sequencing is driven by increasing adoption of precision medicine, growing demand for genetic testing, and advancements in sequencing technologies. Additionally, partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and government agencies, as well as expanding applications in cancer research and rare disease diagnosis, contribute to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 14.07%

Personalis, Inc.'s 14.07% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its neoantigen-based cancer vaccines, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for personalized medicine. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in R&D, and a strong intellectual property portfolio contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Neonatal and Pediatric Whole Genome Sequencing

Comprehensive genomic testing for newborns and children to identify genetic disorders and inform personalized care

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT)

Prenatal screening for chromosomal abnormalities and genetic disorders using cell-free DNA from maternal blood

Hereditary Cancer Testing

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer risk, including BRCA1, BRCA2, and other genes associated with increased cancer risk

Pharmacogenomics Testing

Genetic testing to predict response to medications and inform personalized treatment plans

Whole Exome Sequencing

Comprehensive genetic testing for rare genetic disorders and undiagnosed diseases

Genomic Data Interpretation and Reporting

Expert interpretation and reporting of genomic data to inform clinical decision-making

8. Personalis, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Personalis, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative genetic testing and analysis services. However, the company's proprietary technology and expertise in neoantigen-based cancer vaccines provide a competitive advantage.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Personalis, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to its strong relationships with pharmaceutical and biotech companies, which rely on its services for cancer vaccine development.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Personalis, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to its dependence on a few key suppliers for genetic sequencing and other services. However, the company's strong relationships with these suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Personalis, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for genetic testing and analysis services, which attracts new companies to the market. However, the company's proprietary technology and expertise provide a barrier to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Personalis, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary technology and expertise in neoantigen-based cancer vaccines.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 7.60%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 92.40%
Equity Cost 13.46%
WACC 12.74%
Leverage 8.22%

11. Quality Control: Personalis, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Aclaris Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

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VolitionRx

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Personalis

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 0.7

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Inotiv

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 0.3

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T2 Biosystems

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Bionano Genomics

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.19$

Current Price

10.19$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows