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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

VolitionRx Limited, a multi-national epigenetics company, engages in the development of blood tests to help diagnose a range of cancers and other diseases worldwide.It sells Nu.Q that detect cancer; Nu.Q Nets, monitoring the immune system; Nu.Q Vet cancer screening test for veterinary applications; Nu.Q Capture capturing and concentrating samples for more accurate diagnosis; and Nu.Q Discover, a solution to profiling nucleosomes.The company operates Nucleosomics a technology platform for blood test.


VolitionRx Limited is based in Austin, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on VNRX

VolitionRx Limited's recent performance was negatively impacted by a registered direct offering of up to $2.3 million, which may dilute existing shareholders' ownership. The company's financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024 were announced, but the details of the earnings call transcript suggest a cautious tone. Additionally, the company's Nu.Q Cancer Diagnostics Test, while showing promise, may face intense competition in the liquid biopsy industry.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. VolitionRx's Q3 2025 Earnings: Progress in Commercializing Nu.Q Platform

VolitionRx Limited reported a 32% year-over-year increase in revenue to $0.6 million for the third quarter of 2025. Operating expenses decreased by 10% year-over-year, primarily due to lower personnel costs and research and development expenses. The net loss was down 8% for the quarter and 20% for the first three quarters compared to the prior year. The actual EPS came out at '-0.04', in line with estimates. The company's net cash used in operating activities was $3.6 million, down 33% from the same period last year.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth & Cost Reduction: Q3 revenue rose 32% YoY to $0.6M; operating expenses fell 10% YoY, net cash used in operations dropped 33% to $3.6M.
  • Strategic Partnerships: Signed agreements with Werfen (APS testing) and Hologic (Nu.Q Discover service), with Hologic already contributing first-quarter revenue.
  • APS Market Potential: Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) represents $85M annual TAM, with Werfen validating the product for exclusive commercialization rights.
  • Capture-Seq Breakthrough: New liquid biopsy method achieved 100% sensitivity/specificity in early trials, with active licensing discussions ongoing.
  • Long-Term TAM Vision: Targeting $25B annual TAM in oncology and NETosis, leveraging veterinary market success with i10 validation (Fuji partnership).

Commercial Progress and Partnerships

The company made significant progress in commercializing its Nu.Q platform in the human diagnostic market, announcing two major agreements: a research license and exclusive commercial option rights agreement with Werfen for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) testing, and a co-marketing and service agreement with Hologic for the Nu.Q Discover service. The APS diagnosis and monitoring market represents a total addressable market of approximately $85 million annually. Werfen has not contributed to revenue yet but is in the process of validating the product, while Hologic has made its first sale, which will contribute to revenue this quarter.

Capture-Seq Project and Licensing Opportunities

The company's Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Jake Micallef, provided an update on the Capture-Seq project, a new liquid biopsy method that targets a previously ignored class of cancer-derived DNA, showing 100% sensitivity and specificity in detecting cancer in a small number of patients. The company is in active discussions with third parties regarding licensing opportunities, aiming to achieve cash neutrality by securing significant licensing agreements in the human space.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 208.8%. With a P/S Ratio of 23.71, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -2.28, indicating that the company's valuation is highly dependent on its future growth prospects. As the company progresses with its commercialization plan, with potential deals and licensing arrangements in the pipeline, it is expected to deliver on its growth prospects, potentially justifying the current valuation.

Future Outlook

The company expects growth across all pillars, with the partnerships with Werfen and Hologic expected to shape the top-line revenue trend in 2026. Volition is in active discussions with additional partners, and while it's hard to predict the timing of deals, the company expects to close more in 2026. As the company continues to progress on its commercialization plan, it is expected to deliver significant news in the coming months.

3. NewsRoom

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VolitionRx Limited Announces Inclusion of its Nu.Q® NETs Assay as Innovative Biomarker in France's Real-World Evaluation of Early Detection of Sepsis

Dec -04

Source: prnewswire.com

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VolitionRx Limited Announces the First Sale of the Nu.Q® Cancer Assays for Clinical Certification in Preparation for Routine Clinical Use

Nov -25

Source: prnewswire.com

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VolitionRx Limited (VNRX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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VolitionRx Limited Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Business Update

Nov -13

Source: prnewswire.com

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VolitionRx Limited Schedules Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Business Update

Nov -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Volition Donates Nu.Q® Vet Cancer Tests to HOPE Animal-Assisted Crisis Response Dogs

Oct -17

Source: prnewswire.com

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VolitionRx Limited Announces Pricing of $6.0 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock and Common Stock Warrants

Oct -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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VolitionRx Limited Announces Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock and Common Stock Warrants

Oct -09

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.30%)

6. Segments

Blood Tests

Expected Growth: 11.3%

VolitionRx's 11.3% growth in Blood Tests is driven by increasing adoption of liquid biopsy tests for cancer diagnosis, rising demand for non-invasive diagnostic tools, and expanding partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for companion diagnostic development.

Service

Expected Growth: 10.93%

VolitionRx's 10.93% growth is driven by increasing demand for its Nu.Q cancer tests, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's focus on early cancer detection and prevention, coupled with its proprietary Nucleosomics technology, has led to increased adoption in the healthcare industry. Additionally, VolitionRx's cost-effective and non-invasive testing solutions have resonated with patients and healthcare providers, contributing to its rapid growth.

Royalty

Expected Growth: 10.47%

The 10.47% growth in royalty from VolitionRx Limited is driven by increasing adoption of its Nu.Q cancer diagnostics, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for non-invasive cancer testing. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations have contributed to the growth, as well as the company's focus on research and development to improve its product offerings.

7. Detailed Products

Nu.Q Vet Cancer Screening Test

A blood-based cancer screening test for dogs, designed to detect cancer in its early stages, allowing for timely intervention and treatment.

Nu.Q Human Cancer Screening Test

A non-invasive, blood-based test for the early detection of multiple cancers in humans, including colorectal, lung, breast, and pancreatic cancer.

Nu.Q NETs Test

A blood-based test for the diagnosis and monitoring of Neuroendocrine Tumors (NETs), a rare type of cancer.

Nu.Q Colorectal Cancer Screening Test

A non-invasive, blood-based test for the early detection of colorectal cancer, allowing for timely intervention and treatment.

8. VolitionRx Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

VolitionRx Limited has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative cancer diagnostic tests.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

VolitionRx Limited has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

VolitionRx Limited has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

VolitionRx Limited has a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for cancer diagnostic tests and the relatively low barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

VolitionRx Limited operates in a highly competitive industry with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight -186.58%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 286.58%
Equity Cost 10.21%
WACC 21.91%
Leverage -65.11%

11. Quality Control: VolitionRx Limited passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Aclaris Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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VolitionRx

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Personalis

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 0.7

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Inotiv

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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T2 Biosystems

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bionano Genomics

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.3$

Current Price

0.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows