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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc.operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally.It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands.


The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products.It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels.The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli.


This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce.The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels.It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains.


The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers.The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements.It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors.


Post Holdings, Inc.was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

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1.b. Last Insights on POST

Post Holdings' recent performance faced challenges due to mixed segment performance despite year-over-year sales growth driven by acquisitions. The company's fourth-quarter results showed an 11.8% increase in sales, but operating profit was $168.4 million, down from previous periods. Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC reduced its holdings by 70.6%, selling 7,931 shares. However, the company announced a new $500 million buyback plan, indicating confidence in its financial flexibility. Fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $1,500-$1,540 million.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Post Holdings Delivers Strong Q4 2025 Results Amidst Mixed Business Trends

Post Holdings reported consolidated net sales of $2.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $425 million for Q4 2025, representing a 12% increase in sales driven primarily by the acquisition of Eighth Avenue. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.09, beating estimates of $1.87. Excluding the acquisition, net sales declined due to lower pet food and cereal volumes, partially offset by avian influenza-driven pricing and egg volume growth. The company generated $301 million in operating cash flow and $150 million in free cash flow during the quarter.

Publication Date: Nov -23

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 2025 Performance:: Consolidated net sales rose 12% to $2.2 billion, driven by the Eighth Avenue acquisition, while adjusted EBITDA reached $425 million.
  • Cash Flow Generation:: Generated $301 million in operating cash flow and $150 million in free cash flow, reflecting strong liquidity and financial flexibility.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Adjusted EBITDA projected at $1.5–1.54 billion (1–4% growth), with margins stabilizing at 16% during slower periods and high teens during peak seasons.
  • Share Repurchases:: Repurchased 2.6 million shares in Q4, totaling 6.4 million shares for FY 2025, signaling confidence in capital allocation and stock value.
  • Foodservice Momentum:: Anticipated sustained growth in value-added products and customer stickiness from avian flu-driven pricing, supporting volume expansion in 2026.

Financial Performance and Guidance

For FY 2026, Post Holdings expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.54 billion, reflecting a 1% to 4% growth rate from a normalized FY 2025. The company's guidance is based on expected volume growth in foodservice, cost reduction initiatives, and profitable brand investments. CEO Rob Vitale noted that the company is well-positioned to navigate continued uncertainty, with foodservice expected to drive volume growth and retail businesses generating considerable cash flow.

Business Segment Performance

The company's pet business is expected to see a volume decline in the first half of 2026 due to lapping private label losses but is anticipated to return to flat to slight growth in the second half with the launch of Nutrish. In the foodservice business, Post Holdings expects sustained momentum driven by demand for value-added products, citing a multi-year trend of customers moving up the value chain due to labor dynamics and efficiency gains.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 16.03 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 10.74, the market appears to have priced in moderate growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.5%. The company's focus on innovation across its portfolio, including premium products, and its efforts to refinance debt and consider strategic M&A opportunities, are expected to drive future growth. The Free Cash Flow Yield of 8.01% suggests that the company is generating significant cash, which could be used for shareholder returns or further investments.

Private Label Trends and Competitive Landscape

Post Holdings is observing varied performance across categories in private label trends, with gains in pet categories but softer performance in cereal. The company believes that private label trends are price-gap dependent, with consumers becoming more sensitive to price promotions. The company is responding with targeted investments in brand innovation, including line extensions in various retail categories.

3. NewsRoom

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Post Holdings, Inc. $POST Shares Sold by Fisher Asset Management LLC

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Seneca Foods (NASDAQ:SENEA) and Post (NYSE:POST) Head-To-Head Analysis

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Market Today: Deal Talks, Retail Wins, AI Chips, and Crypto Volatility

Dec -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Post Holdings Announces Redemption of $1,235.0 Million 5.50% Senior Notes Due December 2029

Dec -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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Post Holdings Completes Sale of Pasta Business

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

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Post Holdings Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

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Post Holdings Announces Commencement of Senior Notes Offering

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

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Post Holdings, Inc. $POST Holdings Trimmed by Clarkston Capital Partners LLC

Nov -28

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.74%)

6. Segments

Post Consumer Brands

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Post Consumer Brands' 4.0% growth is driven by increasing demand for convenient and healthy breakfast options, successful product innovation, and strategic acquisitions. The segment benefits from a strong brand portfolio, including Honey Bunches of Oats and Grape-Nuts, and a growing presence in the e-commerce channel.

Foodservice

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Post Holdings' Foodservice segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing demand for convenient and portable food options, expansion in food-away-from-home channels, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, customer partnerships, and operational efficiencies contribute to its growth momentum.

Refrigerated Retail

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Refrigerated Retail from Post Holdings, Inc. achieved 3.8% growth driven by increasing demand for convenient and healthy food options, successful product innovation, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the segment benefited from a strong brand portfolio, effective supply chain management, and a growing online presence, contributing to its robust growth.

Weetabix

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Weetabix's 3.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for healthy breakfast options, successful product innovation, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, Post Holdings' strategic investments in e-commerce and digital marketing have enhanced brand visibility, contributing to the segment's growth.

Eliminations and Corporate

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Post Holdings' Eliminations and Corporate segment growth of 2.5% is driven by synergies from recent acquisitions, cost savings initiatives, and strategic investments in operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's focus on reducing overhead costs and optimizing its organizational structure also contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Ready-to-Eat Cereal

Post Holdings offers a wide range of ready-to-eat cereals under various brands, including Grape-Nuts, Shredded Wheat, and Raisin Bran.

Refrigerated Retail

Post Holdings provides a variety of refrigerated retail products, including eggs, side dishes, and sandwiches, under brands like Michael Foods and Bob Evans.

Nut Butter and Snacking

The company offers a range of nut butters, including peanut butter and almond butter, under brands like Peter Pan and Justin's.

Private Brands

Post Holdings provides private label products to retailers, including cereals, snacks, and other food items.

Active Nutrition

The company offers active nutrition products, including protein powders and bars, under brands like Dymatize and PowerBar.

Foodservice

Post Holdings provides foodservice products, including eggs, potatoes, and other ingredients, to restaurants, schools, and other institutions.

8. Post Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Post Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative breakfast cereals and snacks. However, the company's strong brand portfolio and product offerings mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration of customers. Additionally, the company's products are widely distributed, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the presence of a few large suppliers of raw materials such as corn, wheat, and sugar. However, the company's scale of operations and long-term contracts with suppliers mitigate this threat to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the high barriers to entry in the breakfast cereal and snack food industry. The company's strong brand portfolio, established distribution networks, and significant capital requirements to enter the market make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the presence of several established players in the breakfast cereal and snack food industry. The company faces intense competition from companies such as General Mills, Kellogg, and PepsiCo, which leads to high marketing and advertising expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 61.12%
Debt Cost 6.09%
Equity Weight 38.88%
Equity Cost 6.95%
WACC 6.42%
Leverage 157.21%

11. Quality Control: Post Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

96.0$

Current Price

96$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows