Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc.operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally.It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands.


The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products.It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels.The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli.


This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce.The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels.It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains.


The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers.The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements.It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors.


Post Holdings, Inc.was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on POST

Post Holdings' recent performance faces challenges from increased debt costs and potential regulatory threats. The company's $600 million senior notes offering, priced at 100.75% of principal amount, may raise concerns about its debt management. Despite a 10% sales growth in Q1 2026, driven by Foodservice strength, rising debt costs and cyclicality may impact its growth. Additionally, a rating upgrade to Strong Buy is based on robust free cash flow and aggressive buybacks, which have repurchased ~20% of shares in 16 months. (Source: Post Holdings: Valuation Disconnect With Double-Digit Buybacks Accelerating)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Post Holdings Beats Earnings Expectations

Post Holdings reported a strong quarterly earnings performance, with actual EPS coming in at $2.13, significantly beating analyst estimates of $1.66. Revenue growth was modest, with analysts estimating a 0.2% increase for the next year. The company's financial performance was marked by improvements in its pet business, driven by brands such as Nutrish and Gravy Train. The company's gross margin was not explicitly stated, but the successful closure of two cereal facilities is expected to yield cost savings in the third and fourth quarters.

Publication Date: Feb -17

📋 Highlights
  • Portfolio Balance & M&A Strategy: Post Holdings maintains a "pretty well balanced" portfolio aligned with U.S. dietary guidelines, prioritizing nutrient and price considerations in M&A decisions.
  • Pet Food Segment Shifts: Dog food trends softened due to urbanization and urban lifestyles, while the cat segment gained traction, with pet business poised for sequential improvement via Nutrish and Gravy Train.
  • Operational Efficiency: Closure of two cereal facilities expected to yield cost savings in Q3 and Q4, with a strategic approach to future facility actions.
  • Stable Business Model: Historical volatility absent in Post's model, supported by stabilization in pet volumes and potential for further recovery throughout the year.
  • Facility Rationalization Impact: Facility closures already completed, with anticipated P&L benefits materializing in the second half of the fiscal year.

Operational Highlights

The company's pet business has shown signs of sequential improvement, driven by trends in the cat segment and improvements in Nutrish and Gravy Train, as noted by Nicolas Catoggio. The dog category has been softer due to urbanization trends favoring the cat segment. Robert Vitale discussed the company's portfolio in relation to U.S. dietary guidelines, stating it's "pretty well balanced" and considers both nutrient and price in M&A decisions.

Valuation Metrics

Post Holdings is currently trading at a P/E Ratio of 18.12, P/B Ratio of 1.67, and EV/EBITDA of 9.52. The company's ROE stands at 8.49%, while ROIC is at 5.51%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 5.25, indicating a moderate level of leverage. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 9.47%, the company appears to be generating significant cash flows relative to its market value.

Outlook and Expectations

The company expects continued sequential improvement in its pet business and is being selective in its future actions. With some stabilization seen in pet volumes, there is room for recovery throughout the year. The company's model has historically shown minimal volatility, and the expected cost savings from the closure of cereal facilities should support the bottom line in the coming quarters.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Post Holdings Pet Segment Volumes Dip: Recovery Signs Emerging?

Mar -17

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Can Post Holdings Sustain Growth on Foodservice Strength?

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Post Holdings Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering

Mar -04

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Post Holdings Announces Commencement of Senior Notes Offering

Mar -04

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Post Holdings: Valuation Disconnect With Double-Digit Buybacks Accelerating (Rating Upgrade)

Mar -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Diamond Hill Mid Cap Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Review

Mar -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Post Holdings Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Grow About 10% Y/Y

Feb -06

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.74%)

6. Segments

Post Consumer Brands

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Post Consumer Brands' 4.0% growth is driven by increasing demand for convenient and healthy breakfast options, successful product innovation, and strategic acquisitions. The segment benefits from a strong brand portfolio, including Honey Bunches of Oats and Grape-Nuts, and a growing presence in the e-commerce channel.

Foodservice

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Post Holdings' Foodservice segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing demand for convenient and portable food options, expansion in food-away-from-home channels, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, customer partnerships, and operational efficiencies contribute to its growth momentum.

Refrigerated Retail

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Refrigerated Retail from Post Holdings, Inc. achieved 3.8% growth driven by increasing demand for convenient and healthy food options, successful product innovation, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the segment benefited from a strong brand portfolio, effective supply chain management, and a growing online presence, contributing to its robust growth.

Weetabix

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Weetabix's 3.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for healthy breakfast options, successful product innovation, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, Post Holdings' strategic investments in e-commerce and digital marketing have enhanced brand visibility, contributing to the segment's growth.

Eliminations and Corporate

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Post Holdings' Eliminations and Corporate segment growth of 2.5% is driven by synergies from recent acquisitions, cost savings initiatives, and strategic investments in operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's focus on reducing overhead costs and optimizing its organizational structure also contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Ready-to-Eat Cereal

Post Holdings offers a wide range of ready-to-eat cereals under various brands, including Grape-Nuts, Shredded Wheat, and Raisin Bran.

Refrigerated Retail

Post Holdings provides a variety of refrigerated retail products, including eggs, side dishes, and sandwiches, under brands like Michael Foods and Bob Evans.

Nut Butter and Snacking

The company offers a range of nut butters, including peanut butter and almond butter, under brands like Peter Pan and Justin's.

Private Brands

Post Holdings provides private label products to retailers, including cereals, snacks, and other food items.

Active Nutrition

The company offers active nutrition products, including protein powders and bars, under brands like Dymatize and PowerBar.

Foodservice

Post Holdings provides foodservice products, including eggs, potatoes, and other ingredients, to restaurants, schools, and other institutions.

8. Post Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Post Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative breakfast cereals and snacks. However, the company's strong brand portfolio and product offerings mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration of customers. Additionally, the company's products are widely distributed, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the presence of a few large suppliers of raw materials such as corn, wheat, and sugar. However, the company's scale of operations and long-term contracts with suppliers mitigate this threat to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the high barriers to entry in the breakfast cereal and snack food industry. The company's strong brand portfolio, established distribution networks, and significant capital requirements to enter the market make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Post Holdings, Inc. due to the presence of several established players in the breakfast cereal and snack food industry. The company faces intense competition from companies such as General Mills, Kellogg, and PepsiCo, which leads to high marketing and advertising expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 61.12%
Debt Cost 6.09%
Equity Weight 38.88%
Equity Cost 6.95%
WACC 6.42%
Leverage 157.21%

11. Quality Control: Post Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Conagra Brands

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Pilgrim's Pride

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Flowers Foods

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Campbell Soup

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Post Holdings

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Central Garden & Pet

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

96.72$

Current Price

96.72$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows