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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

RXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States.The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last mile, and freight forwarding.The company is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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1.b. Last Insights on RXO

Breaking News: RXO Inc recently presented at the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference and UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference. There is no recent earnings release available. Edgestream Partners LP bought 356918 shares of RXO in the second quarter valued at approximately 5611000. Analysts at UBS and Goldman Sachs have shown interest in the company by hosting conferences. Edgestream Partners LP now owns approximately 022 percent of RXO. No buy hold or sell recommendation has been made by analysts based on the provided data.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. RXO's Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

The company's third-quarter financial performance was marked by a slight miss on expectations, with revenues coming in at $1.4 billion, slightly below outlook. Gross margin was 16.5%, and adjusted EBITDA was $32 million, impacted by increased cost of transportation, demand weakness, and continued headwinds in the automotive sector. Earnings per share (EPS) was $0.01, compared to analyst estimates of $0.03. The company's brokerage gross margin was at the low end of its outlook, with gross profit per load moderating due to softer demand and tighter capacity.

Publication Date: Nov -11

📋 Highlights
  • Brokerage volume growth:: Overall +1% YoY, driven by 43% YoY less-than-truckload (LTL) volume growth, while truckload volume declined 11% YoY but rose 1% sequentially.
  • EBITDA performance:: Q3 EBITDA of $32M, below expectations, with Q4 guidance narrowed to $20M–$30M due to volume weakness in last mile and market tightening.
  • Cost optimization:: Achieved $155M in annualized expense savings over 3 years, with $30M in additional savings announced, reducing brokerage cost per load by over 20% since the spin.
  • Free cash flow conversion:: 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion in Q3, maintaining confidence in 40%–60% conversion across market cycles despite demand headwinds.
  • Market structural changes:: Capacity exits from regulatory enforcement (e.g., non-domiciled CDL restrictions) are structural, expected to tighten supply and improve margins when demand recovers.

Operational Performance

Despite the challenges, RXO's overall brokerage volume grew 1% year-over-year, driven by a 43% increase in less-than-truckload volume. Truckload volume declined 11% year-over-year but increased 1% sequentially. Last mile stops grew 12% year-over-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The company's technology offerings continue to drive improvements across key pillars, including volume, margin, productivity, and service.

Guidance and Outlook

RXO expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $20 million and $30 million, with the biggest driver being volume weakness in its last mile business, counter to typical seasonality. The company anticipates a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all its lines of business in the fourth quarter. For 2026, RXO continues to expect CapEx to be between $45 million and $55 million, down materially year-over-year.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 0.42 and an EV/EBITDA of 49.74, RXO's valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in a significant recovery in the company's financial performance. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.4%. The company's ROE is -5.43%, and ROIC is -2940.91%, indicating significant challenges in generating returns on equity and invested capital.

Management's Perspective

Drew Wilkerson, RXO's management, noted that the recent supply exits are likely to be sustainable and will result in a major structural change to the industry, driven by enforcement of non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency. This, he believes, will create a much sharper inflection as the market recovers, ultimately benefiting the company. As Jamie Harris stated, the company has a strong balance sheet and is well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions.

3. NewsRoom

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RXO, Inc. (RXO) Presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -03

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356,918 Shares in Rxo Inc $RXO Bought by Edgestream Partners L.P.

Dec -03

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RXO, Inc. (RXO) Presents at UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference Transcript

Dec -03

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Comparing RXO (NYSE:RXO) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (NYSE:ASR)

Dec -02

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AXQ Capital LP Purchases New Holdings in Rxo Inc $RXO

Nov -25

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RXO Announces Participation at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Nov -17

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RXO, Inc. (RXO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -09

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Johnson Fistel Continues Investigation on Behalf of RXO, Inc. (RXO) Shareholders Who Have Incurred Losses

Nov -06

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.36%)

6. Segments

Truck Brokerage

Expected Growth: 5%

RXO's truck brokerage growth is driven by increasing demand for flexible logistics solutions, strategic carrier partnerships, and investments in digital brokerage technology. Additionally, the company's focus on providing real-time visibility, data-driven insights, and exceptional customer service has enabled it to capitalize on market opportunities and drive growth.

Last Mile

Expected Growth: 7%

RXO's Last Mile segment growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, rising consumer expectations for fast and flexible delivery, and strategic partnerships with retailers and manufacturers. Additionally, investments in technology and operational efficiency have enabled RXO to scale and expand its last-mile capabilities, contributing to its 7% growth.

Managed Transportation

Expected Growth: 5%

RXO's Managed Transportation growth is driven by increasing demand for supply chain visibility, rising adoption of digital brokerage platforms, and growing need for cost savings and efficiency in logistics. Additionally, RXO's expertise in freight management, strategic partnerships, and investments in technology and data analytics are key contributors to its 5% growth.

Freight Forwarding

Expected Growth: 4%

RXO's freight forwarding growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic carrier partnerships, and investments in digital brokerage platforms. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings, and customized logistics solutions for shippers also contribute to its growth. Furthermore, RXO's expansion into new markets and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions have also fueled its growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 3%

RXO's 3% growth is driven by increasing demand for logistics services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and strong operational execution have contributed to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Truck Brokerage

RXO's truck brokerage service connects shippers with a network of qualified carriers, providing flexible and reliable transportation solutions.

Managed Transportation

RXO's managed transportation service provides customized logistics solutions, including freight audit and payment, to help shippers optimize their transportation networks.

Dedicated Capacity

RXO's dedicated capacity service provides shippers with a dedicated fleet of trucks and drivers, ensuring consistent and reliable transportation solutions.

Warehousing and Distribution

RXO's warehousing and distribution service provides shippers with secure and efficient storage and distribution solutions.

Last Mile Delivery

RXO's last mile delivery service provides shippers with fast and flexible delivery solutions, ensuring timely and efficient delivery to customers.

8. RXO, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

RXO, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

RXO, Inc. has a large customer base, but the bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of alternative service providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

RXO, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of suppliers. The company's strong relationships with suppliers also mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the industry, RXO, Inc. faces a moderate threat from new entrants due to the potential for disruption from new technologies and business models.

Intensity Of Rivalry

RXO, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, and the intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established players and the potential for new entrants.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.44%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 51.56%
Equity Cost 9.53%
WACC 6.82%
Leverage 93.94%

11. Quality Control: RXO, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Schneider National

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Exponent

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 1.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Werner Enterprises

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Casella Waste Systems

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Saia

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
RXO

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

14.43$

Current Price

14.43$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows