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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America.The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services.As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers.


The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc.and changed its name to Saia, Inc.in July 2006.


Saia, Inc.was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on SAIA

Breaking News: Saia Inc reported LTL shipment and tonnage data for the first two months of the fourth quarter. In October, LTL shipments per workday declined 3.4% and LTL tonnage per workday declined 3.3% compared to October 2024. In November, LTL shipments per workday increased 2.6% and LTL tonnage per workday increased 1.8% compared to November 2024. LTL weight per shipment was 1353 pounds in October and 1346 pounds in November. Analysts at various firms have recommended a buy on the stock citing opportunities in cyclical value including LTL trucking.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Saia's Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Saia's third-quarter revenue was relatively flat compared to the prior year, decreasing 0.3% to $839.6 million. The company's operating ratio was 85.9%, and adjusting for one-time real estate transactions, the adjusted operating ratio was 87.6%, an increase of 250 basis points compared to the operating ratio of 85.1% in the third quarter last year. Earnings per share (EPS) came out at $2.81, beating analyst estimates of $2.52.

Publication Date: Nov -01

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Stability:: Q3 revenue held steady at $839.6 million (down 0.3% YoY), with revenue per shipment rising 0.3% to $294.35 (excluding fuel surcharge).
  • Operating Ratio Pressure:: Adjusted operating ratio climbed 250 bps to 87.6% (vs. 85.1% in Q3 2024), driven by cost inflation and pricing challenges despite network optimization efforts.
  • Cargo Claims Record:: Achieved a 0.54% cargo claims ratio for the fourth consecutive quarter, a company record and industry benchmark.
  • Ramping Market Progress:: 39 new terminals opened since 2022 improved operating ratio by >100 bps to sub-95 OR, demonstrating integration success.
  • Pricing Discipline:: Implemented 5.9% General Rate Increase (GRI) effective October 1, targeting 25% of revenue, to offset inflation and align with service investments.

Revenue and Volume Trends

Revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 0.3% to $294.35, while fuel surcharge revenue increased by 2.1% and was 15.2% of total revenue. Shipments per workday decreased 1.9%, while weight per shipment and length of haul increased slightly. Tonnage per workday for the quarter decreased 1.5% to approximately 24,700 tons. As Matthew Batteh noted, "In October so far, shipments are down around 3.5%, tonnage down about 4%."

Operational Performance

Saia's cargo claims ratio was 0.54%, a notable company record, and the contractual renewal rate for the quarter was 5.1%. The company continued to benefit from its accelerated network optimization efforts, which improved efficiency across its national footprint. Fritz Holzgrefe mentioned that the company is "getting closer to our customers, improving service levels, and providing solutions that meet customers' needs."

Outlook and Valuation

Analysts estimate revenue growth of 5.4% for next year. With a P/E Ratio of 27.58 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.5, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability. The company's ROE is 11.78%, and ROIC is 9.12%, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital. However, the Free Cash Flow Yield is -1.45%, which may be a concern for investors.

Guidance and Challenges

The company expects Q4 to be challenging, with an operating ratio expected to be down 300 to 400 basis points. Fritz Holzgrefe mentioned that the environment is "inflationary, making pricing discipline critical for Saia." The company is focusing on getting pricing right and pushing contractual renewals to increase pricing. However, there are challenges to consider, such as mix shifts in the business and seasonality.

3. NewsRoom

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5 Transport Stocks Are Spiking After Slumps. Analysts Debate Their Future.

Dec -03

Source:

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The Next 3 Years Could Make Or Break Portfolios - Here's My Plan

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Saia Provides Fourth Quarter LTL Operating Data

Dec -02

Source: globenewswire.com

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Madison Small Cap Fund Q3 2025 Portfolio Activity

Nov -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Invesco Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2025 Portfolio Positioning

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Saia, Inc. $SAIA Shares Sold by Bank of Montreal Can

Nov -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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2 Truck Stocks to Keep an Eye on Despite Industry Headwinds

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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Saia: Strategic Operations, Well-Positioned Fundamentals, And Reasonable Valuation Justify A Buy

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.00%)

6. Segments

Less-than-truckload Services

Expected Growth: 9%

Saia's 9% growth in Less-than-truckload (LTL) services is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic network expansion, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's focus on customer service, investments in technology, and a strong sales force contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Less Than Truckload (LTL) Freight

Saia's LTL freight service provides reliable and efficient transportation of palletized goods weighing between 100 and 20,000 pounds.

Truckload (TL) Freight

Saia's TL freight service offers dedicated truckload transportation for large shipments, providing exclusive use of a trailer for a single customer's goods.

Dedicated Logistics

Saia's dedicated logistics service provides customized transportation solutions, including dedicated trucks, drivers, and equipment, tailored to meet specific business needs.

Warehousing and Distribution

Saia's warehousing and distribution services provide secure, climate-controlled storage facilities and efficient order fulfillment and shipping operations.

Supply Chain Solutions

Saia's supply chain solutions provide end-to-end logistics management, including transportation, warehousing, and distribution, to optimize supply chain efficiency.

8. Saia, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Saia, Inc. operates in the less-than-truckload (LTL) industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative modes of transportation, such as truckload and parcel services, they are not always suitable substitutes for LTL services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Saia, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's focus on customer service and on-time delivery helps to build strong relationships with customers, reducing their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Saia, Inc. relies on a network of independent contractors and owner-operators to provide capacity, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and reputation help to mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The LTL industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and complex logistics networks. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Saia, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The LTL industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Saia, Inc. faces intense competition from rivals such as FedEx Freight, XPO Logistics, and ArcBest Corporation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 6.67%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 93.33%
Equity Cost 12.47%
WACC 11.90%
Leverage 7.14%

11. Quality Control: Saia, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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MDU Resources

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Griffon

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Schneider National

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.0

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Werner Enterprises

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Saia

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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RXO

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

330.91$

Current Price

330.91$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows