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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America.The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services.As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers.


The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc.and changed its name to Saia, Inc.in July 2006.


Saia, Inc.was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on SAIA

Saia, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by network expansion, with the company opening profitable terminals that boosted market share. However, profitability remains under pressure due to flat revenue and rising costs, which eroded the operating ratio to 91.9%. The company's Q4 earnings missed estimates, with diluted earnings per share of $1.77, down from $2.84 in Q4 2024. Analysts have a consensus "Hold" rating on the stock, with 13 holding and 10 recommending a buy. Wilson Asset Management International PTY Ltd. recently purchased a new stake in Saia, Inc.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Saia's Q4 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Saia, Inc.'s fourth-quarter revenue reached a record $790 million, up 0.1% year-over-year, despite a 0.5% decline in shipments per day and a 1.5% decrease in tonnage per day. However, the company's operating ratio deteriorated to 91.9% from 87.1% a year ago, primarily due to increased self-insurance costs. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.77, missing analyst estimates of $1.9.

Publication Date: Feb -18

📋 Highlights
  • Record Capital Investment:: Over $2,000,000,000 invested in expanding the nationwide network, enabling market share gains and new customer acquisitions.
  • Operating Ratio Deterioration:: Q4 operating ratio surged to 91.9% (vs. 87.1% in 2024) due to $14.5M net operating expense from real estate gain/impairment and self-insurance costs.
  • Revenue Resilience:: Q4 revenue hit $790,000,000, a record quarterly high, despite 0.5% shipment decline and 1.5% tonnage drop, driven by 6.1% fuel surcharge growth.
  • Cost Efficiency Gains:: 10% fewer lost time injuries and 21% lower preventable accidents in 2025, reflecting safety and training investments.
  • Terminal Profitability Challenges:: New terminals (39) currently drag OR with mid-to-upper 90s ratios, but expected to reach legacy profitability within 3 years.

Operational Performance

The company's core operations performed as expected, with revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge decreasing by 0.5% to $297.57. Fuel surcharge revenue increased by 6.1% and was 15% of total revenue compared to 14.1% a year ago. The company's nationwide network has now been fully operational for one year, and it has strengthened relationships with existing customers while bringing high-quality service to many new customers, contributing to a record level of market share gain.

Margin Pressures

The company's operating expenses increased by 5.6% in the quarter, driven by higher self-insurance costs. Matthew J. Batteh, CFO, mentioned that the company experienced unexpected adverse developments on a few cases arising from accidents that occurred in prior years. The company's tax rate for the fourth quarter was 22%, and the diluted EPS was $1.77, down from $2.84 in the fourth quarter a year ago.

Outlook and Valuation

Looking ahead, Saia expects a positive backdrop, which could lead to tonnage growth and create an opportunity for the company. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.1%. With a current P/E Ratio of 40.73 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.38, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE is 10.3%, and ROIC is 8.21%, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital.

Investment Considerations

The company's excess capacity in its network, around 20-25%, and its significant investments in technology and new terminals are expected to drive future growth. However, the company's self-insurance and accident expense was an unexpected adverse development. With a manageable leverage and expected solid free cash flow, the company may consider additional shareholder returns, such as a buyback or dividend.

3. NewsRoom

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Channing Capital Management LLC Invests $8.48 Million in Saia, Inc. $SAIA

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) EVP Sells $1,046,518.44 in Stock

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Saia: Network Growth Impresses Me, Profitability Does Not

Feb -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Saia (SAIA) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Feb -10

Source: zacks.com

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Saia (SAIA) Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates

Feb -10

Source: zacks.com

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Saia Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Feb -10

Source: globenewswire.com

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5,138 Shares in Saia, Inc. $SAIA Bought by Wilson Asset Management International PTY Ltd.

Feb -09

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.00%)

6. Segments

Less-than-truckload Services

Expected Growth: 9%

Saia's 9% growth in Less-than-truckload (LTL) services is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic network expansion, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's focus on customer service, investments in technology, and a strong sales force contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Less Than Truckload (LTL) Freight

Saia's LTL freight service provides reliable and efficient transportation of palletized goods weighing between 100 and 20,000 pounds.

Truckload (TL) Freight

Saia's TL freight service offers dedicated truckload transportation for large shipments, providing exclusive use of a trailer for a single customer's goods.

Dedicated Logistics

Saia's dedicated logistics service provides customized transportation solutions, including dedicated trucks, drivers, and equipment, tailored to meet specific business needs.

Warehousing and Distribution

Saia's warehousing and distribution services provide secure, climate-controlled storage facilities and efficient order fulfillment and shipping operations.

Supply Chain Solutions

Saia's supply chain solutions provide end-to-end logistics management, including transportation, warehousing, and distribution, to optimize supply chain efficiency.

8. Saia, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Saia, Inc. operates in the less-than-truckload (LTL) industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative modes of transportation, such as truckload and parcel services, they are not always suitable substitutes for LTL services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Saia, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's focus on customer service and on-time delivery helps to build strong relationships with customers, reducing their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Saia, Inc. relies on a network of independent contractors and owner-operators to provide capacity, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and reputation help to mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The LTL industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and complex logistics networks. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Saia, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The LTL industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Saia, Inc. faces intense competition from rivals such as FedEx Freight, XPO Logistics, and ArcBest Corporation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 6.67%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 93.33%
Equity Cost 12.47%
WACC 11.90%
Leverage 7.14%

11. Quality Control: Saia, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
MDU Resources

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Griffon

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Schneider National

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Werner Enterprises

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Saia

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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RXO

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

411.63$

Current Price

411.63$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows