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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida.It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial.The Residential segment plans and develops residential communities of various sizes for homebuilders or retail consumers.


It primarily sells developed homesites and parcels of entitled or undeveloped land.The Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets.This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services.


The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets.This segment also plans, develops, entitles, manages, and sells commercial land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products.The company owns 170,000 acres of land in Northwest Florida.


The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.

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1.b. Last Insights on JOE

The St. Joe Company's recent performance has been positively influenced by several factors. The company announced a new builder relationship with PulteGroup, a national homebuilder, for homesites in two gated communities near Watersound West Bay Center. Additionally, St. Joe broke ground on a Watersound Real Estate sales center at Watersound West Bay Center. The company also reported its Q4 2025 earnings and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share. Institutional investors, such as Victory Capital Management and Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Co, have increased their stakes in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. The St. Joe Company's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

The St. Joe Company's fourth-quarter 2025 financial performance was impressive, with revenue increasing by 24% and net income by 58%. For the full year, revenue was $513.2 million, up 27%, and net income was $115.6 million, up 56%, with earnings per share at $2. The company's diversified real estate operating model has led to 56% recurring revenue. The actual EPS for the quarter was $0.09, beating estimates of $0.05. The company's gross margins across different segments also showed improvement, with Homesite gross margins increasing to 51% from 47% and Leasing gross margins to 57% from 54%.

Publication Date: Mar -03

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Net Income Growth:: Q4 2025 revenue rose 24% to $132.1M, net income up 58% to $36.5M; full-year revenue $513.2M (+27%), net income $115.6M (+56%), EPS $2.00.
  • Margin Improvements:: Homesite margins increased to 51% (vs. 47%), Leasing to 57% (vs. 54%), while Hospitality dipped to 31% (vs. 32%).
  • Capital Allocation:: $18.5M invested in capex, $15.1M in share repurchases (798K shares at $50.10 avg. price), $9.2M in dividends, and $8M for debt reduction.
  • Development Pipeline:: 23,900 homesites under development, with 10 approved DSAPs and plans to break ground on 2 new DSAPs in 2026.
  • Share Repurchase Impact:: $653.6M spent to buy back 34.9M shares since 2015, reflecting management's confidence in undervalued stock (NAV likely higher than current price).

Segmental Performance

The company's segmental performance was largely positive, with the Homesite and Leasing segments showing significant improvements in gross margins. The Hospitality segment, however, saw a slight decrease in gross margins to 31% from 32%. The company's pipeline remains strong, with 10 detailed specific area plans (DSAPs) approved and 23,900 homesites in various stages of development.

Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase

The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with 798,622 shares bought in 2025 at an average price of $50.10. Management views buybacks as a prudent allocation of capital, even with the recent stock price increase. Since 2015, the company has used $653.6 million to repurchase 34.9 million shares.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 36.25, P/B Ratio of 5.4, and ROIC of 97.35%, the company's valuation metrics indicate a strong performance. The stock's current price may be justified by its growth prospects, but investors should be cautious about the premium priced in. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.2%, which may not be sufficient to justify the current valuation.

Growth Prospects and Strategy

Management expressed optimism about future growth, referencing their strategy to enhance the value of their land assets and grow multiple revenue streams. The company is planning and permitting new neighborhoods, including a potential high-end retail custom homesite product in Origins West. The company's NAV is likely higher than the current stock price, and future stock appreciation depends on the company's ability to continue growing EPS and return on investment capital.

Operational Efficiency and New Projects

The company is exploring AI to improve operational efficiency and is working on new projects, including a new apartment complex near the FSU Health campus and a surf park concept in Pier Park East. The non-stop flight from New York has been performing well, and the brokerage business is growing, with a positive reception from the agent community.

3. NewsRoom

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SG Americas Securities LLC Grows Stake in St. Joe Company (The) $JOE

Apr -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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St. Joe (NYSE:JOE) Stock Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average – Time to Sell?

Mar -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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IHG Hotels & Resorts Recognizes Hotel Indigo Panama City Marina With Coveted “Torchbearer Award”

Mar -12

Source: businesswire.com

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Victory Capital Management Inc. Raises Stock Position in St. Joe Company (The) $JOE

Mar -10

Source: defenseworld.net

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Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Co Takes Position in St. Joe Company (The) $JOE

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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The St. Joe Company Announces New Builder Relationship With National Home Builder PulteGroup

Mar -05

Source: businesswire.com

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The St. Joe Company (JOE) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The St. Joe Company Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and Declares a Quarterly Dividend of $0.16 Per Share

Feb -25

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.90%)

6. Segments

Residential

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for housing in Northwest Florida, driven by retirees and families seeking a relaxed lifestyle, and limited supply of housing options in desirable communities, will fuel growth in the residential segment of The St. Joe Company.

Hospitality

Expected Growth: 5.5%

The hospitality segment is poised for growth driven by increasing demand for luxury accommodations and exceptional dining experiences. The company's focus on developing high-end hotels, resorts, and restaurants will attract high-spending tourists, leading to increased revenue and market share.

Commercial

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The St. Joe Company's vision for a thriving Northwest Florida, driven by residential and commercial developments, outdoor recreation, and economic growth opportunities, is expected to fuel growth in the region.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The 'Other' segment's growth is driven by increasing demand for timber and rural land, fueled by government initiatives promoting sustainable forestry and rural development. Additionally, the growing trend of eco-tourism and outdoor recreation is expected to boost rural land sales.

7. Detailed Products

Residential Real Estate

The St. Joe Company develops and sells residential properties, including single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums, in Northwest Florida.

Commercial Real Estate

The company develops and leases commercial properties, including office buildings, retail centers, and industrial parks, in Northwest Florida.

Resort and Club Operations

The St. Joe Company operates resorts, golf courses, and private clubs, offering amenities such as golf, tennis, and dining to members and guests.

Timberland and Rural Land Sales

The company sells timberland and rural land to investors, developers, and individuals in Northwest Florida.

Agriculture and Forestry

The St. Joe Company engages in agriculture and forestry operations, including timber harvesting and cattle ranching, on its land holdings in Northwest Florida.

8. The St. Joe Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The St. Joe Company is medium due to the availability of alternative real estate investment options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The St. Joe Company is low due to the company's diversified portfolio of properties and limited dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The St. Joe Company is medium due to the company's reliance on a few key suppliers for materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The St. Joe Company is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the real estate industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The St. Joe Company is high due to the competitive nature of the real estate industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.09%
Debt Cost 6.54%
Equity Weight 51.91%
Equity Cost 10.43%
WACC 8.56%
Leverage 92.66%

11. Quality Control: The St. Joe Company passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Starwood Property Trust

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Broadstone Net Lease

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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National Health Investors

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Arbor Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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AGNC Investment

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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St. Joe

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

66.98$

Current Price

66.98$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows