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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida.It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial.The Residential segment plans and develops residential communities of various sizes for homebuilders or retail consumers.


It primarily sells developed homesites and parcels of entitled or undeveloped land.The Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets.This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services.


The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets.This segment also plans, develops, entitles, manages, and sells commercial land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products.The company owns 170,000 acres of land in Northwest Florida.


The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.

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1.b. Last Insights on JOE

The St. Joe Company's recent performance was driven by strong quarterly results, with a 14% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.16 per share. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted its solid financial position. Additionally, the release of the Watersound Lifestyle magazine showcased the company's community amenities and conservation efforts. A growing focus on coastal conservation and renovated clubhouses, such as the Shark's Tooth Clubhouse, may contribute to increased investor confidence. The company's dividend increase signals a positive outlook.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. St. Joe Company's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

The St. Joe Company reported a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue growing 63% to a significant figure, driven primarily by a 94% increase in residential real estate revenue to $36.8 million. The average homesite base price rose to $150,000, resulting in a gross margin of 53%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.09, beating estimates of $0.05. The company's recurring revenue also demonstrated substantial growth, with leasing revenue increasing 7% to $16.7 million and hospitality revenue rising 9% to $60.6 million, both reaching record levels.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Net Income Growth:: Revenue surged 63% to $109.1M (residential $36.8M up 94%), net income jumped 130% to $29.5M.
  • Recurring Revenue Records:: Leasing revenue hit $16.7M (+7%), hospitality revenue soared to $60.6M (+9%), both all-time highs.
  • Capital Allocation Strategy:: $20.4M in capex, $8.7M share buybacks, $8.1M dividends, and $28.4M project debt reduction; shares below $58M for first time in 30 years.
  • Asset Monetization Success:: Sold Watercrest senior living for $41M, generating $19.4M gross profit as part of value-creation strategy.
  • WindMark Expansion:: Transitioned to builder program, now with 800+ developed lots, 200 under development, and 50%+ lot price increases in College Station.

Residential Real Estate and Pipeline Growth

The company's residential real estate segment saw significant growth, driven by higher average homesite prices and increased sales. The pipeline for residential units is expanding, with 1,992 units under contract and over 24,000 entitled units in various stages of planning, engineering, permitting, or development. Jorge Gonzalez, President, CEO, and Chairman, highlighted that the company's diverse portfolio allows for different communities to behave differently in various economic conditions, supporting the increase in average home site sale price.

Capital Allocation Strategy

The company executed a multifaceted capital allocation strategy, investing $20.4 million in capital expenditures, repurchasing shares worth $8.7 million, paying $8.1 million in cash dividends, and reducing project debt by $28.4 million. The share repurchase rate was 1% on an annual basis, bringing the outstanding share balance below $58 million for the first time in nearly 30 years. Marek Bakun, Chief Financial Officer, noted that the company's cash balance has grown, enabling accelerated share repurchases and increased dividends.

Valuation and Future Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 31.39 and an EV/EBITDA of 19.71, the market seems to have priced in significant growth expectations. The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 103.36%, indicating efficient use of capital. As the company continues to grow its recurring revenue and expand its residential pipeline, it is well-positioned for future growth. The market's anticipation of continued growth is reflected in its valuation metrics, suggesting that the company's strategy is being positively received by investors.

Hospitality and Leasing Segments

The hospitality and leasing segments have seen substantial growth, with revenue reaching all-time highs. The company is evaluating opportunities to monetize assets within these segments, which could further enhance its financial performance. The growth in these recurring revenue streams is expected to continue, driven by developments such as WaterSound Town Center and West Bay.

3. NewsRoom

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St. Joe (NYSE:JOE) & Great Portland Estates (OTCMKTS:GPEAF) Critical Survey

Nov -18

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bruce Berkowitz's Strategic Moves: A Closer Look at The St. Joe Co's -2.43% Impact

Nov -14

Source: gurufocus.com

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The St. Joe Company Earns Great Place to Work Certification™ for the Second Year in a Row Recognizing Outstanding Workplace Culture

Nov -12

Source: businesswire.com

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Watersound® Town Center Announces New Tenants as Growth Accelerates and Construction Continues on Leasable Space

Nov -06

Source: businesswire.com

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The St. Joe Company (JOE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The St. Joe Company Reports Third Quarter and First Nine Months of 2025 Results and Increases Quarterly Dividend by 14% to $0.16 Per Share

Oct -29

Source: businesswire.com

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The St. Joe Company Releases the Latest Issue of “Watersound Lifestyle®,” the Watersound Club® Member Magazine

Sep -11

Source: businesswire.com

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The St. Joe Company (JOE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jul -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.90%)

6. Segments

Residential

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for housing in Northwest Florida, driven by retirees and families seeking a relaxed lifestyle, and limited supply of housing options in desirable communities, will fuel growth in the residential segment of The St. Joe Company.

Hospitality

Expected Growth: 5.5%

The hospitality segment is poised for growth driven by increasing demand for luxury accommodations and exceptional dining experiences. The company's focus on developing high-end hotels, resorts, and restaurants will attract high-spending tourists, leading to increased revenue and market share.

Commercial

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The St. Joe Company's vision for a thriving Northwest Florida, driven by residential and commercial developments, outdoor recreation, and economic growth opportunities, is expected to fuel growth in the region.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The 'Other' segment's growth is driven by increasing demand for timber and rural land, fueled by government initiatives promoting sustainable forestry and rural development. Additionally, the growing trend of eco-tourism and outdoor recreation is expected to boost rural land sales.

7. Detailed Products

Residential Real Estate

The St. Joe Company develops and sells residential properties, including single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums, in Northwest Florida.

Commercial Real Estate

The company develops and leases commercial properties, including office buildings, retail centers, and industrial parks, in Northwest Florida.

Resort and Club Operations

The St. Joe Company operates resorts, golf courses, and private clubs, offering amenities such as golf, tennis, and dining to members and guests.

Timberland and Rural Land Sales

The company sells timberland and rural land to investors, developers, and individuals in Northwest Florida.

Agriculture and Forestry

The St. Joe Company engages in agriculture and forestry operations, including timber harvesting and cattle ranching, on its land holdings in Northwest Florida.

8. The St. Joe Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The St. Joe Company is medium due to the availability of alternative real estate investment options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The St. Joe Company is low due to the company's diversified portfolio of properties and limited dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The St. Joe Company is medium due to the company's reliance on a few key suppliers for materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The St. Joe Company is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the real estate industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The St. Joe Company is high due to the competitive nature of the real estate industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.09%
Debt Cost 6.54%
Equity Weight 51.91%
Equity Cost 10.43%
WACC 8.56%
Leverage 92.66%

11. Quality Control: The St. Joe Company passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Starwood Property Trust

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.7

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National Health Investors

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Broadstone Net Lease

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Arbor Realty Trust

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.3

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AGNC Investment

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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St. Joe

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 1.4

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

60.26$

Current Price

60.26$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows