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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

AGNC Investment Corp.operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States.The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.


It funds its investments primarily through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements.The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders.The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp.


and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp.in September 2016.AGNC Investment Corp.


was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

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1.b. Last Insights on AGNCN

AGNC Investment Corp.'s recent performance was driven by its Q4 2024 earnings release, which beat expectations. The company's earnings call highlighted its strong portfolio performance, with Director, President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Federico stating that AGNC's "investment portfolio performed well in the quarter, with solid credit quality and minimal losses." Additionally, the company's preferred shares offer high single-digit yields, making them attractive to investors. The recent weakness in interest rates, with rates declining to six-week lows, has also benefited AGNC, as it reduces the company's cost of funds and increases the attractiveness of its preferred shares. Furthermore, the rotation into high-yielding preferred shares, such as AGNCP, has been driven by recent outperformance and reduced Fed rate cut expectations.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. AGNC Investment Corp. Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

AGNC Investment Corp.'s fourth quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted an exceptional year for shareholders, with comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share and an economic return on tangible common equity of 11.6%. The actual EPS came out at $0.872, significantly higher than the estimated $0.3706. The company's tangible net book value per common share increased by $0.60 in Q4 and $0.47 for the full year. The net spread and dollar roll income was $0.35 per common share in Q4, driven by lower funding costs and increased stability in funding markets.

Publication Date: Feb -08

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Economic Returns:: AGNC delivered 11.6% economic return in Q4 2025 and 22.7% for the full year, with total stock return of 34.8% including dividends.
  • High Comprehensive Income:: Q4 comprehensive income was $0.89 per common share, with tangible net book value per share rising $0.60 in Q4 and $0.47 annually.
  • Liquidity and Leverage Position:: Q4 leverage stood at 7.2x tangible equity, supported by $7.6 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS.
  • Portfolio Yield and CPR Trends:: Net spread and dollar roll income reached $0.35 per share in Q4, with average projected CPR rising to 9.6% due to lower mortgage rates.
  • Spread Environment and Dividend Coverage:: Current mortgage spreads are in a new range (120-160 bps over swaps), with dividend coverage showing 13-15% returns exceeding dividend yield.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was impressive, with a total stock return in 2025 of 34.8% with dividends reinvested. The full-year economic return was 22.7%. The company's leverage has come down consistent with spread tightening, ending Q4 with leverage of 7.2x tangible equity and a strong liquidity position of $7.6 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS.

Valuation Metrics

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 1.01 and a Dividend Yield of 12.59%, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The ROE stands at 15.1%, indicating a decent return on equity. These metrics suggest that the company's stock is fairly valued, with the dividend yield being particularly attractive to income-seeking investors.

Outlook and Positioning

Looking ahead, AGNC expects lower funding costs and increased stability in funding markets to provide a moderate tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income. The company's mortgage portfolio is positioned to benefit from the current environment, with 48% of its portfolio in 5.5 and above coupons. The company is focused on selecting pools with attractive characteristics to mitigate prepayment risk and operates with a positive duration gap, currently around 0.5 years, which provides protection in a falling interest rate environment.

MBS Market Outlook

The company's outlook for Agency MBS in 2026 is positive based on current information. The decline in interest rate volatility has been a key driver of the outperformance of the asset class. The GSEs' demand for mortgages is significant, and the company's outlook for the MBS market is constructive, with a lower spread environment but still attractive returns. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.7%, indicating a relatively stable outlook.

3. NewsRoom

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From Silicon To Steel: The Value Trade Returns

Feb -08

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Key Themes To Watch This REIT Earnings Season

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The Polar Pivot

Jan -25

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Powell Under Pressure

Jan -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNCN) Sees Large Growth in Short Interest

Jan -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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REITs: A Long, Difficult Decade

Jan -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNCN) Sees Significant Decrease in Short Interest

Dec -30

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.10%)

6. Segments

Real Estate Investment Trust

Expected Growth: 8.1%

AGNC Investment Corp's growth is driven by increasing demand for mortgage-backed securities, low interest rates, and a steady income stream from its investments in agency residential mortgage-backed securities.

7. Detailed Products

Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

AGNC Investment Corp. invests in agency MBS, which are securities backed by residential mortgages and guaranteed by government-sponsored entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS)

AGNC Investment Corp. invests in non-agency RMBS, which are securities backed by residential mortgages but not guaranteed by government-sponsored entities.

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)

AGNC Investment Corp. invests in CMBS, which are securities backed by commercial mortgages on properties such as office buildings, apartments, and shopping centers.

Residential Mortgage Investments

AGNC Investment Corp. invests in residential mortgage investments, including whole loans and mortgage servicing rights.

Credit Investments

AGNC Investment Corp. invests in credit investments, including corporate debt, asset-backed securities, and other credit-related instruments.

8. AGNC Investment Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for AGNC Investment Corp. is medium, as there are alternative investment options available to investors, but AGNC's diversified portfolio and strong management team help to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for AGNC Investment Corp. is low, as investors have limited negotiating power due to the company's strong brand and diversified portfolio.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for AGNC Investment Corp. is medium, as the company relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its investment portfolio, but has some negotiating power due to its size and scale.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for AGNC Investment Corp. is low, as the company has a strong brand and established presence in the market, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for AGNC Investment Corp. is high, as the company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, and must continually innovate and adapt to stay ahead.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 88.15%
Debt Cost 11.17%
Equity Weight 11.85%
Equity Cost 11.17%
WACC 11.17%
Leverage 743.61%

11. Quality Control: AGNC Investment Corp. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Starwood Property Trust

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Annaly Capital Management

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Rithm Capital

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Arbor Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AGNC Investment

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.76$

Current Price

25.76$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows