Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally.The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements.It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names.


The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels.It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com.The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company's recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q4 earnings miss, with quarterly earnings of $0.46 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.5 per share a year ago. The company's Atkins brand sales declines and margin compression posed short-term headwinds. Despite this, Quest and OWYN brands are growing rapidly, offsetting Atkins' weakness. The company also faced gross margin pressure from tariffs and commodity prices.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Simply Good Foods' Fiscal Year 2025 Results: A Mixed Bag

The Simply Good Foods Company reported a mixed fiscal year 2025, with 9% net sales growth, including 3% organic growth, and 3% adjusted EBITDA growth. On a pro forma basis, net sales increased over 4% with adjusted EBITDA up approximately 6%. The company's fourth quarter reported net sales of $369 million declined 1.8% versus last year, while organic net sales grew 3.5%, driven by Quest's 15.9% growth. Gross profit declined 13.3% on a reported basis, with gross margin at 34.3%, a decline of 450 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA was $66.2 million, down 14.5% from the year-ago period. The actual EPS came out at $0.46, slightly lower than estimates of $0.48.

Publication Date: Oct -26

📋 Highlights
  • Net Sales & Organic Growth:: FY2025 reported 9% net sales growth (3% organic), with pro forma net sales up over 4% and adjusted EBITDA rising ~6%.
  • Quest Performance:: Quest, contributing ~66% of net sales, achieved 12% full-year consumption growth (11% in Q4) despite Q4 net sales decline of 1.8%.
  • OWYN Growth:: OWYN grew consumption 14% in Q4 and 34% full-year, with household penetration rising 100 bps to 4.2%.
  • Cash Return to Shareholders:: Repurchased $50M in stock (2% of shares) and paid off $150M in debt, leveraging $180M in operating cash flow.
  • Margin Outlook:: Gross margins expected to improve by 100–150 bps in H2 FY2026–2027 due to cocoa price deflation and productivity initiatives.

Segment Performance

Quest, which represents almost 2/3 of net sales, delivered 11% year-over-year consumption growth in Q4 and 12% growth for the full year. OWYN grew consumption 14% in Q4 and 34% for the full year, with household penetration up 100 basis points to 4.2%. Atkins, however, faced challenges, with consumption declining 12% in Q4 and 10% for the full year, mainly due to distribution cuts. The company is proactively managing Atkins' space and assortment to prioritize growth for Quest and OWYN.

Outlook and Guidance

For fiscal year 2026, the company expects net sales growth to be in the range of negative 2% to positive 2%, with growth from Quest and OWYN offset by Atkins. Gross margins are expected to decline in the range of 100 to 150 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA year-over-year is expected to be in the range of negative 4% to positive 1%. The company generated $178 million in cash flow from operations and repurchased nearly 1.6 million shares, or almost 2% of its outstanding common stock.

Valuation and Metrics

Simply Good Foods' current valuation metrics are as follows: P/E Ratio at 19.64, P/B Ratio at 1.13, P/S Ratio at 1.4, EV/EBITDA at 11.96, and ROE at 5.72%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.7%. The company's focus on long-term growth and creating meaningful value for shareholders through investments in capacity, share buybacks, and M&A is reflected in its valuation. With a strong track record of executing and built capabilities to drive growth, the company's priorities for excess cash remain focused on buybacks, investing in capital, and potential M&A opportunities.

Margin Expectations

The company expects gross margins to improve in the second half of fiscal 2026 and into 2027, driven by cocoa price coverage and productivity actions. Pricing and productivity efforts will also contribute to margin improvements, with pricing already building in Q1 and Q2, and productivity kicking in fully in the second half. The company sees potential for further gross margin relief in Q4 and into FY '27, especially if cocoa prices continue to fall.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Boston Partners Cuts Stock Position in The Simply Good Foods Company $SMPL

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Should Investors Sell Simply Good Foods After McCollum Christoferson Liquidated its Position in the Stock?

Nov -21

Source: fool.com

Card image cap

Add SMPL To Your Portfolio Today?

Nov -13

Source: forbes.com

Card image cap

Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Buys Shares of 19,387 The Simply Good Foods Company $SMPL

Nov -06

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D Increases Stake in The Simply Good Foods Company $SMPL

Nov -03

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Simply Good Foods Is Experiencing Temporary Headwinds

Oct -29

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Simply Good Foods Is Simply Too Cheap

Oct -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.64%)

6. Segments

Quest

Expected Growth: 6.5%

Quest's 6.5% growth is driven by increasing demand for healthy and convenient food options, strategic partnerships with major retailers, and successful product innovation. Additionally, the company's focus on e-commerce and digital marketing has expanded its customer base, while cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency.

Atkins

Expected Growth: 6.8%

Atkins' 6.8% growth is driven by increasing demand for low-carb and keto diets, strategic product innovation, and expanding distribution channels. The brand's strong online presence and influencer partnerships also contribute to its growth. Additionally, The Simply Good Foods Company's focus on acquisitions and partnerships has enhanced Atkins' market reach and product offerings.

7. Detailed Products

Quest Nutrition Products

Quest Nutrition is a leading brand of protein powders, bars, and other nutritional supplements

Atkins Nutritionals Products

Atkins is a well-known brand of low-carb and keto-friendly food products, including snacks, meals, and treats

Simply GoodFats Products

Simply GoodFats is a brand of healthy fats and snacks, including nut butters, seed butters, and other healthy snack options

8. The Simply Good Foods Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The Simply Good Foods Company is medium because while there are some substitutes available, they are not a significant threat to the company's market share.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The Simply Good Foods Company is low because the company's products are niche and have a loyal customer base, giving customers limited bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The Simply Good Foods Company is medium because while the company relies on a few key suppliers, it also has some flexibility to switch suppliers if needed.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The Simply Good Foods Company is high because the healthy food industry is growing rapidly and attracting new entrants, increasing competition.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The Simply Good Foods Company is high because the healthy food industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 15.55%
Debt Cost 7.19%
Equity Weight 84.45%
Equity Cost 7.19%
WACC 7.19%
Leverage 18.42%

11. Quality Control: The Simply Good Foods Company passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lancaster Colony

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Hormel Foods

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
J&J Snack Foods

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
McCormick

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Simply Good Foods

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
BellRing Brands

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.93$

Current Price

18.93$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows