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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

TCG BDC, Inc.is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities.It specializes in directly investing.


It specializes in middle market.It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector.The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom.


It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

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1.b. Last Insights on CGBD

Carlyle Secured Lending's recent performance was driven by its Q4 2024 earnings beat and revenue growth, with net investment income remaining above its base dividend. The company's strong portfolio growth, driven by fourth quarter net investment activity, and solid financial results for the full year ended December 31, 2024, contributed to its positive performance. Additionally, Carlyle Secured Lending's high dividend yield of 10.3% and reduced non-accrual rate make it an attractive option for investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Carlyle Secured Lending's Earnings Report: A Resilient Portfolio Amidst a Challenging Environment

Carlyle Secured Lending reported a net investment income of $0.37 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.38 after adjusting for asset acquisition accounting for the third quarter of 2025. Total investment income was $67 million, in line with the prior quarter, driven by a stable average portfolio size and modest changes in total portfolio yields. The company's net asset value stood at $16.36 per share as of September 30, 2025, compared to $16.43 per share as of June 30, 2025. The actual EPS of $0.38 was slightly lower than the estimated $0.39.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • Net Investment Income & Dividend:: Q3 GAAP NII of $0.37/share, $0.38 adjusted; $0.40/share dividend declared (12%+ yield at current price).
  • NAV Decline:: Share price dipped to $16.36/share (Sept 30) from $16.43/share (June 30).
  • Investment Activity:: $260M deployed in Q3, net $117M post-repayments; $48M sold to MNCF joint venture.
  • Income & Expenses:: $67M investment income (stable QoQ); $40M expenses ($+$1M vs. prior quarter due to floating-rate swap transition).
  • Outlook & Strategy:: Anticipate earnings trough next 2Qs; JVs target 300–500 bps ROA boost, pipeline LTV at 38–42% in high-quality sectors.

Portfolio Performance and Positioning

The company's portfolio remains resilient, with a focus on sourcing transactions with significant equity cushions, conservative leverage profiles, and attractive spreads relative to market levels. The pipeline of new originations is active, with a stable high-quality portfolio, mainly in software, technology, healthcare, and financial services, with an average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 38-42%. As Justin Plouffe mentioned, "our strategy has always been defensive, diversified first lien and then opportunistic on things like second liens."

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a dividend yield of 14.42%, Carlyle Secured Lending offers an attractive return to its shareholders. The company's P/B Ratio stands at 0.72, indicating that the stock may be undervalued. Analysts estimate a revenue growth of 2.3% for the next year. Considering the current valuation multiples, it appears that the market has priced in a relatively stable outlook for the company.

Outlook and Joint Ventures

The company's outlook is supported by its joint ventures, which are expected to increase the return on assets by 300 to 500 basis points in the long term. Thomas Hennigan mentioned that the joint ventures will take time to scale up and won't have a near-term impact on earnings. The company anticipates a trough in earnings in the next couple of quarters before building back up in the second half of 2026 into 2027.

3. NewsRoom

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Reviewing Carlyle Secured Lending (NASDAQ:CGBD) and WhiteHorse Finance (NASDAQ:WHF)

Nov -18

Source: defenseworld.net

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Dividend Power Dogs: 12 Ideal Safer November Stars

Nov -16

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Announces Intent to Redeem All Outstanding 8.20% Notes Due 2028

Oct -31

Source: globenewswire.com

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Dividend Power Dogs: 13 Ideal Safer October Stars

Oct -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Schedules Earnings Release and Quarterly Earnings Call to Discuss its Financial Results for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2025

Oct -15

Source: globenewswire.com

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Schedules Earnings Release and Quarterly Earnings Call to Discuss its Financial Results for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2025

Oct -15

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Investment and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Growing demand for middle-market lending, increasing need for alternative financing options, and Carlyle's expertise in senior-secured loans drive growth, with a forecast CAGR of 8.5%.

7. Detailed Products

Real Estate Loans

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. offers real estate loans for various property types, including commercial, residential, and construction projects.

Business Loans

The company provides business loans for small to medium-sized businesses, offering flexible repayment terms and competitive interest rates.

Invoice Financing

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. offers invoice financing solutions, allowing businesses to receive immediate payment on outstanding invoices.

Equipment Financing

The company provides equipment financing options for businesses, enabling them to acquire new equipment and technology.

Factoring

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. offers factoring services, allowing businesses to sell their accounts receivable in exchange for immediate payment.

8. Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing secured loans to small and medium-sized businesses. While there are some substitutes available, such as traditional banks and online lenders, the company's specialized services and expertise in secured lending mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s customers are typically small and medium-sized businesses that rely on the company's specialized lending services. As a result, customers have limited bargaining power, and the company has more control over the lending terms and conditions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a leading provider of secured lending services, and its suppliers are primarily small and medium-sized businesses that rely on the company's services. As a result, suppliers have limited bargaining power, and the company has more control over the lending terms and conditions.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are some barriers to entry in the secured lending market, such as regulatory requirements and the need for specialized expertise, new entrants can still pose a threat to Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. However, the company's established reputation and expertise in secured lending mitigate this threat to some extent.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The secured lending market is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. faces intense competition from other lenders, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 51.73%
Debt Cost 7.51%
Equity Weight 48.27%
Equity Cost 11.97%
WACC 9.66%
Leverage 107.19%

11. Quality Control: Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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General American Investors Company

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Sixth Street Specialty Lending

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Crescent Capital BDC

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Carlyle Secured Lending

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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CION Investment

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Oxford Square Capital

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.97$

Current Price

12.97$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows