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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a hospitality company, develops, owns, operates, manages, and licenses restaurants and lounges worldwide.It operates through STK, Kona Grill, and ONE Hospitality segments.The company also provides turn-key food and beverage services for hospitality venues, including hotels, casinos, and other locations.


Its hospitality food and beverage solutions include developing, managing, and operating restaurants, bars, rooftops, pools, banqueting, catering, private dining rooms, room service, and mini bars; and offers hospitality advisory and consulting services.The company operates restaurants primarily under the STK and Kona Grill brands.As of December 31, 2021, it owned, operated, managed, or licensed 60 venues, including 23 STKs and 24 Kona Grills in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, as well as 13 F&B venues in seven hotels and casinos in the United States and Europe.


The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on STKS

The ONE Group Hospitality's recent performance was negatively impacted by a decline in same-store sales, partly offset by the company's acquisition-driven growth. The Q4 2024 earnings release revealed a 4.5% decrease in same-store sales, primarily due to lower sales at its company-owned restaurants. Additionally, the company's operating margin compression, driven by higher labor and food costs, further weighed on its performance. The opening of a new Benihana location in San Mateo, while a positive development, did not sufficiently offset these headwinds.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. The ONE Group Hospitality's Q3 Earnings: A Closer Look

The ONE Group Hospitality reported total consolidated GAAP revenues of $180.2 million for the third quarter, a decrease of 7.1% from the same quarter last year. Company-owned restaurant net revenue decreased 6.9%, primarily due to a 5.9% reduction in consolidated comparable sales and the closure of underperforming restaurants. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. was $10.6 million, a decrease of 28.9% from the prior year. The company's EPS came out at -$0.66, missing estimates of -$0.19. The decline in revenues and margin was largely attributed to the challenging market conditions and the lack of pricing increases in certain segments.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Loyalty Program Growth:: Friends with Benefits reached 6.5M members, driving high repeat engagement.
  • Benihana Redesign Success:: San Mateo location became top-performing in 60-year history, adding 2-3 Techniaki tables per site.
  • Franchise Expansion:: 5-7 new venues planned for 2025, including Benihana Express locations with asset-light strategy.
  • Financial Performance:: Q3 GAAP revenue declined 7.1% to $180.2M, with adjusted EBITDA at $10.6M (-28.9% YoY).
  • Benihana Express Economics:: $500K–$600K build-out cost, $1M–$1.5M revenue, 15–20% store margins post-royalties.

Operational Highlights

Emanuel Hilario discussed the company's strategic initiatives to adapt to the current market pressures, including the expansion of the Kona Grill's premium holiday menu and the introduction of broader culinary options. The Friends with Benefits loyalty program gained momentum, with over 6.5 million members, and new members showing high repeat participation. The company is also focusing on digital enhancements to compete effectively with national chains.

Franchising and Expansion

The company is making significant progress in its franchising efforts, with the opening of a second Benihana Express location in Miami and plans for additional openings. The Express format offers the full menu without Techniaki tables, generating strong franchise interest while enabling asset-light expansion. The estimated build-out cost for the Benihana Express concept is $500,000 to $600,000, with revenue projections around $1 million to $1.5 million.

Valuation and Outlook

The company's valuation metrics indicate a mixed picture, with a P/S Ratio of 0.07 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.46. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.8%. The company's ROE is -11.98%, and the Net Debt / EBITDA is 3.76. Given the current valuation and growth prospects, investors will be watching the company's ability to execute its strategic initiatives and improve its financial performance.

Guidance and Future Plans

The company updated its financial targets for fiscal year 2025, with total GAAP revenues of between $820 million and $825 million, reflecting consolidated comparable sales of negative 3% to negative 2%. Managed franchise and license fee revenues are expected to be between $14 million and $15 million. The company is optimistic about holiday bookings, particularly in the month of November and early December, with about 15% of its business in the fourth quarter coming from group event business.

3. NewsRoom

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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The ONE Group Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -06

Source: businesswire.com

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. to Host Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast at 4:30 PM ET on November 6, 2025

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ:STKS) Receives Consensus Recommendation of “Hold” from Analysts

Oct -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. Appoints Nicole Thaung as Chief Financial Officer

Sep -08

Source: businesswire.com

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One Group (STKS) Q2 Revenue Rises 20%

Aug -06

Source: fool.com

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The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.11%)

6. Segments

STK

Expected Growth: 10.27%

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s STK segment growth of 10.27% is driven by increasing brand recognition, expansion into new markets, and a focus on experiential dining. Additionally, the company's emphasis on digital marketing and loyalty programs has contributed to higher sales and customer retention.

Kona Grill

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Kona Grill's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing brand recognition, strategic menu innovation, and effective marketing campaigns. Additionally, the company's focus on experiential dining, enhanced customer experience, and expansion into new markets have contributed to its growth momentum.

ONE Hospitality

Expected Growth: 10.47%

ONE Hospitality's 10.47% growth driven by increasing demand for upscale dining experiences, strategic expansion into new markets, and successful implementation of digital marketing strategies, resulting in higher brand recognition and customer loyalty.

Corporate Segment

Expected Growth: 10.27%

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s Corporate Segment growth of 10.27% is driven by increasing demand for upscale dining experiences, strategic expansion of restaurants, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on digital marketing and loyalty programs has contributed to higher sales and customer retention.

7. Detailed Products

STK Restaurants

Upscale casual dining restaurants offering a unique blend of steakhouse quality and chic lounge vibe

Kona Grill

Casual dining restaurants serving high-quality American favorites with a Hawaiian twist

Bones Chophouse

Upscale steakhouse offering premium cuts of meat, fresh seafood, and fine wines

Kona Grill Bars

Trendy bars offering creative cocktails, craft beers, and light bites

Catering and Events

Customized catering and event services for private and corporate events

8. The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is medium. While there are some substitutes available, they are not a significant threat to the company's business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is low. The company's unique dining experiences and high-end hospitality services give it a competitive advantage, reducing the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is medium. While the company relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, it has a diversified supply chain and is not heavily dependent on any single supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is high. The company operates in a highly competitive industry, and new entrants can easily enter the market, posing a significant threat to its business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is high. The company operates in a highly competitive industry, and there is intense competition among existing players, which can lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 53.32%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 46.68%
Equity Cost 15.97%
WACC 9.56%
Leverage 114.24%

11. Quality Control: The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Potbelly

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Red Robin

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Portillo's

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ONE Group Hospitality

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Good Times Restaurants

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kura Sushi USA

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.99$

Current Price

1.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows