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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products.The company operates through three segments: Zig-Zag Products, Stoker's Products, and NewGen Products.The Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products under the Zig-Zag brand.


The Stoker's Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker's, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands.The NewGen Products segment markets and distributes cannabidiol isolate, liquid vapor products, and other products without tobacco and/or nicotine to individual consumers through VaporFi B2C online platform, as well as non-traditional retail through VaporBeast.It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, and drug stores.


The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc.and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc.in November 2015.


Turning Point Brands, Inc.was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

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1.b. Last Insights on TPB

Turning Point Brands' recent performance was driven by the successful launch of Alp nicotine pouches in December, which accelerated momentum in the company's business. The introduction of smoke-free products aligns with health trends and regulatory shifts, positioning the company for growth. Additionally, the company's restructuring efforts, including distancing itself from the CDS segment, are expected to improve profitability.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Turning Point Brands' 2025 Q4 Earnings: A Strong Finish to the Year

Turning Point Brands reported a robust 29% increase in revenue to $121 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, with Modern Oral net revenue reaching $41.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $30 million, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst growth. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.95, beating estimates of $0.87. The company's revenue growth was driven by the strong performance of its Modern Oral segment, which is a key area of focus for the company.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q4 2025 revenue rose 29% to $121 million, driven by Modern Oral’s $41.3 million net revenue.
  • EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $30 million, with 2026 guidance of $24-27 million for Q1.
  • Modern Oral Guidance:: 2026 gross revenue projected at $220-240 million, net revenue at $180-190 million, reflecting strong market positioning.
  • Segment Performance:: Stoker’s segment surged 70% to $81 million, now accounting for 67% of consolidated net sales.
  • CapEx & Distribution:: $4-5 million in 2026 CapEx (excluding Modern Oral) to expand production and bricks-and-mortar distribution for FRE and ALP.

Segment Performance

The Stoker's segment now accounts for 67% of consolidated net sales, with net sales increasing 70% to $81 million. In contrast, the Zig-Zag segment net sales were down 13% to $40 million. The company's focus on its Modern Oral segment is paying off, with net revenue reaching $41.3 million.

Guidance and Outlook

Turning Point Brands is initiating 2026 Modern Oral gross revenue guidance at $220-240 million and net revenue guidance at $180-190 million. The company expects first quarter 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA to be between $24-27 million. Management is optimistic about the company's growth prospects, citing the potential for the nicotine pouch space to feature 5-6 widely distributed brands.

Investment and Growth Strategy

The company is investing in sales and marketing to support the growth of its white nicotine pouch brands, FRE and ALP. Graham Purdy, a key executive, notes that there are still many opportunities for growth, including expanding distribution in larger national chains and increasing shelf space in existing retail locations. The company expects to spend $4-5 million on CapEx in 2026, excluding projects related to its Modern Oral business.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 30.08 and an EV/EBITDA of 16.01, the company's valuation multiples suggest that investors are pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.3%, which may not be enough to justify the current valuation. However, with a strong track record of execution and a clear growth strategy, Turning Point Brands may be able to continue to deliver on its promises.

3. NewsRoom

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ArrowMark Colorado Holdings LLC Has $66.71 Million Stock Position in Turning Point Brands, Inc. $TPB

Mar -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Why Turning Point Brands Stock Collapsed This Week

Mar -06

Source: fool.com

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3 Dividend Stocks to Buy in March and Hold for the Long Term

Mar -05

Source: fool.com

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Apis Capital Triples Down on Turning Point Brands, Adds Another $10 Million in Stock

Mar -05

Source: fool.com

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Turning Point Brands: 2 Minor Reasons For Major Sell-Off

Mar -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Turning Point Brands Stock Has Surged 53%, but One Fund Just Sold $12.5 Million in Shares

Mar -03

Source: fool.com

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Turning Point Brands (NYSE:TPB) Shares Gap Down After Earnings Miss

Mar -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Why Turning Point Brands Stock Is Plummeting Today

Mar -02

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.75%)

6. Segments

Zig-Zag Products

Expected Growth: 2%

Zig-Zag Products' 2% growth is driven by increasing demand for rolling papers and cones, particularly among younger generations and cannabis users. Strong brand recognition, innovative products, and strategic partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on e-commerce and expanding distribution channels enhance its market reach, further fueling growth.

Stoker's Products

Expected Growth: 3%

Stoker's Products, a subsidiary of Turning Point Brands, Inc., exhibits 3% growth driven by increasing demand for alternative smoking products, expanding distribution channels, and strategic marketing efforts. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, such as the introduction of new flavors and products, contributes to its growth momentum.

Creative Distribution Solutions

Expected Growth: 4%

Creative Distribution Solutions from Turning Point Brands, Inc. achieves 4% growth driven by increasing demand for e-vapor products, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, product diversification, and efficient logistics management contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Zig-Zag Rolling Papers

A brand of rolling papers and accessories, offering a range of products for rolling and smoking tobacco and other herbs.

Stoker's MST

A brand of moist snuff tobacco products, offering a range of flavors and nicotine levels.

Beech-Nut E-Liquids

A brand of e-liquids and vaping products, offering a range of flavors and nicotine levels.

NewGen Products

A brand of alternative nicotine products, including e-liquids, vaping devices, and heat-not-burn products.

8. Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Turning Point Brands, Inc. operates in the Other Tobacco Products industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are some alternatives to traditional tobacco products, such as e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn products, they are not yet widely adopted and are subject to varying regulations.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Turning Point Brands, Inc. has a diverse customer base, including retailers, wholesalers, and distributors. However, the company's customers are not highly concentrated, and the switching costs are relatively low, giving customers some bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Turning Point Brands, Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its tobacco and other raw materials. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, the suppliers also have some leverage due to the specialized nature of the products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The tobacco industry has significant barriers to entry, including high regulatory hurdles, significant capital requirements, and established distribution networks. These barriers make it difficult for new entrants to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The tobacco industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Turning Point Brands, Inc. faces intense competition from established players, as well as from new entrants and alternative products.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.91%
Debt Cost 6.33%
Equity Weight 29.09%
Equity Cost 6.41%
WACC 6.35%
Leverage 243.77%

11. Quality Control: Turning Point Brands, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Momentum: 7.0

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A-Score: 6.7/10

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Value: 7.9

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Quality: 6.0

Yield: 5.0

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Turning Point Brands

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

84.94$

Current Price

84.94$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows