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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches.It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores.


Altria Group, Inc.was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

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1.b. Last Insights on MO

Altria Group, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by disappointing Q3 performance in the oral nicotine segment, particularly with its on! pouches. The company's core cigarette business faces retail share pressure from downtrading, despite maintaining profitability and margin expansion. Additionally, Altria's Q3 earnings report revealed a solid quarter with adjusted EPS up 5%, but the stock dropped 7% in reaction. Weakness in the oral nicotine segment raises concerns. (Source: Altria: A Solid Third Quarter - With A Catch, October 30)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Altria Group's 2025 Earnings Report: A Year of Momentum

Altria Group's financial performance in 2025 was marked by strong income growth and margin expansion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share growing by 4.4% to $5.42. The company's core tobacco businesses delivered solid financial results, with the smokeable products segment generating over $11 billion in adjusted operating cash income (OCI) for the full year, and expanding adjusted OCI margins by 1.8 percentage points to 63.4%. The actual EPS came out at $1.3 relative to estimates at $1.32, a slight miss. Revenue growth is expected to be modest at 0.3% next year.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Financial Performance: Adjusted diluted EPS grew 4.4%, with $8 billion returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.
  • E-Vapor Market Dynamics: Category grew 30% in 2025 (vs. 50% in 2024), but illicit products dominated 70% of the market, signaling regulatory pressures.
  • Oral Nicotine Pouches Growth: Helix’s ON PLUS gained 10.4 share points in Q4, capturing 57% of the oral category, with consumer feedback highlighting product differentiation.
  • 2026 EPS Guidance: Expected range of $5.56–$5.72 (2.5%–5.5% growth from $5.42 base), driven by import/export activity and cost normalization.
  • Core Tobacco Margins: Smokeable products delivered $11 billion in adjusted OCI with 1.8% margin expansion, though domestic cigarette volumes fell 10% due to cross-category shifts.

Segment Performance

The oral tobacco products segment saw adjusted OCI margins contract by five percentage points to 64.5% for the fourth quarter, due to strategic investments behind ON! and ON! PLUS. However, total oral category growth was driven by the success of nicotine pouches, with ON! PLUS being a premium differentiated product that commands a competitive advantage in the marketplace. As Sal Mancuso noted, the investments in manufacturing for import-export are the primary driver of the higher controllable costs, which were 14.5% in the fourth quarter.

Smoke-Free Portfolio Progress

The e-vapor category grew approximately 30% in 2025, with illicit products representing approximately 70% of the category. However, early signs suggest that enforcement efforts are beginning to impact the illicit marketplace. The company is making progress in its smoke-free portfolio, with Helix successfully delivering against its plans and contributing profitable growth to the oral tobacco product segment.

Valuation and Outlook

Altria Group's valuation metrics indicate a relatively stable picture, with a P/E Ratio of 14.96, P/S Ratio of 4.98, and EV/EBITDA of 11.71. The company's dividend yield is attractive at 6.71%. For 2026, the company expects to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth in a range of 2.5% to 5.5%, with growth weighted to the second half of the year. The company's guidance suggests a progressive increase in cigarette import and export activity over the course of the year.

Investment Thesis

Altria Group's investment thesis remains intact, with the company making moderate upfront investments to participate in the duty drawback and set up its manufacturing center in Richmond for international production. The company's strategy is to maximize profitability over the long term while making investments in growth categories. With a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders, Altria Group's dividend yield and valuation metrics make it an attractive investment opportunity.

3. NewsRoom

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Is Altria Becoming More Than an Income Stock?

Feb -01

Source: marketbeat.com

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5 'Safer' Dividend Buys In Barron's 23 Better January Bets Than T-Bill

Jan -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The Smartest Dividend Stock to Buy With $10,000 Right Now

Jan -30

Source: fool.com

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Altria or Philip Morris: Which Stock Looks Stronger in Today's Market?

Jan -30

Source: zacks.com

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Is Altria Stock A Value Play Or A Yield Trap At $60?

Jan -30

Source: forbes.com

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Altria: Enjoy The Last Puff -- Strong Sell

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Altria 2025 Earnings: Moving Beyond Smoking? Don't Hold Your Breath

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Why Altria Stock Dropped Today

Jan -29

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.17%)

6. Segments

Smokeable Products

Expected Growth: 3.5%

The 3.5% growth in Smokeable Products from Altria Group, Inc. is driven by pricing power, market share gains, and a stable demand for traditional tobacco products. The segment's growth is also supported by the company's efforts to innovate and expand its product portfolio, including the launch of new products and flavors.

Oral Tobacco Products

Expected Growth: 1.0%

The oral tobacco products segment of Altria Group, Inc. is driven by steady demand for smokeless products, stable pricing, and effective cost management. The 1.0 growth rate reflects a mature market with slow but steady increases in shipment volumes and market share gains, offset by declining traditional tobacco use.

ALL other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The fundamental drivers for Altria Group, Inc.'s growth include a 2.0% increase in revenue, driven by pricing power, reduced discounting, and increased market share. Other growth drivers include innovative products, such as IQOS, and steady performance from its core tobacco brands, including Marlboro. The company also benefits from a strong dividend yield and efficient cost management.

7. Detailed Products

Marlboro Cigarettes

Marlboro is a leading international cigarette brand with a wide range of products, including Marlboro Red, Marlboro Gold, and Marlboro Menthol.

Skoal Smokeless Tobacco

Skoal is a popular brand of smokeless tobacco products, including moist snuff and pouches.

Black & Mild Cigars

Black & Mild is a brand of machine-made cigars that are known for their smooth flavor and affordability.

Nu Mark E-Cigarettes

Nu Mark is a brand of e-cigarettes and vaping products that are designed to provide a smoking alternative.

Ste. Michelle Wine

Ste. Michelle is a leading producer of wine in the United States, with a portfolio of brands that include Columbia Crest, Chateau Ste. Michelle, and 14 Hands.

8. Altria Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The tobacco industry faces a growing threat from substitutes, particularly e-cigarettes and vaping products. However, Altria Group, Inc. has a strong presence in the market and has been adapting to the changing landscape by investing in alternative products, such as IQOS.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers in the tobacco industry is relatively low. Tobacco products are addictive, and customers tend to be loyal to specific brands. Additionally, Altria Group, Inc. has a strong portfolio of brands, including Marlboro, which is one of the most recognized and trusted brands in the industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers in the tobacco industry is relatively low. Altria Group, Inc. has a large and diversified supply chain, and the company has significant negotiating power with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the tobacco industry is high, particularly with the rise of e-cigarettes and vaping products. New companies have entered the market, and existing companies have expanded their product offerings, increasing competition for Altria Group, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the tobacco industry is high, with several large players competing for market share. Altria Group, Inc. competes with other major tobacco companies, such as Reynolds American and British American Tobacco, as well as newer entrants in the e-cigarette and vaping market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 109.86%
Debt Cost 5.47%
Equity Weight -9.86%
Equity Cost 7.58%
WACC 5.26%
Leverage -1113.76%

11. Quality Control: Altria Group, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Altria

A-Score: 7.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Imperial Brands

A-Score: 7.5/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Universal

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Philip Morris

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BAT

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Scandinavian Tobacco Group

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

62.23$

Current Price

62.23$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows