Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an agricultural biotechnology and an e-commerce platform in the People's Republic of China.The company engages in crop seed breeding and genetic improvement activities.It develops, produces, and distributes hybrid crop seeds, as well as develops hybrid seed technology.

The company also operates an e-commerce platform, which provides range of products, including agricultural seed products that comprise corn, rice, and vegetable seeds; other agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and agricultural chemicals; foods; household products; and other consumer products to farmers through online and mobile ordering.It has a collaboration agreement with Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the National Maize Improvement Center, China Agricultural University, and Zhejiang University.Origin Agritech Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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1.b. Last Insights on SEED

Origin Agritech's recent performance was negatively impacted by a lack of significant updates on its business operations and technology advancements. The company's Q4 2024 earnings call transcript revealed a cautious tone, with management focusing on cost control and operational efficiency rather than aggressive growth initiatives. Additionally, the absence of any notable partnerships or collaborations in the recent news cycle suggests a slower pace of business development. Furthermore, the company's recent earnings release did not provide any significant surprises, with revenue growth coming in at 24.6% year-over-year, but with no clear indication of future growth drivers.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	1.42
Change Percentage	0.96%
Open	1.44
Previous Close	1.41
Market Cap ( Millions)	10
Volume	3430
Year High	2.7
Year Low	0.74
M A 50	1.49
M A 200	1.36

FCF Yield	-32.90%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	19.94%
Debt / Equity	-69.74%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-31.08%
Price To Book	-2.32
Price Earnings Ratio	-11.64
Price To FCF	-3.04
Price To sales	0.74
EV / EBITDA	-1.43

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Origin Agritech's Pioneering Hi3 Gene Editing Technology Awarded as Top 10 Major Progress in Chinese Agricultural Science for 2025, as Company Advances Commercialization

Dec -02

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Strengthens Gene Editing Platform through Patent License Agreement with Shunfeng BioTech

Nov -10

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Obtains New Licenses for Crop Seed Production and GMO Business Operations

Oct -24

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Executes Northeast China Market Re-Entry with Product Showcase and Technology Seminar

Oct -15

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Announces Investment Agreements, Including Investment from Origin CEO Weibin Yan

Sep -30

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Announces Appointment of Two New Independent Directors and Board Restructuring

Sep -12

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Commences Full-Scale Seed Processing Operations at Xinjiang Production Base

Aug -25

Source: prnewswire.com

Origin Agritech Hosts Industry Summit in Zhengzhou, Strengthens Distribution Network with Over 700 Partners

Aug -15

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Hybrid Crop Seed Development, Production and Distribution

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Growing demand for high-yielding and disease-resistant seeds, increasing adoption of hybrid seeds, and government initiatives to enhance food security drive the growth of the hybrid crop seed market.

7. Detailed Products

Genetically Modified (GM) Corn Seeds

Origin Agritech Limited offers genetically modified corn seeds that are resistant to pests and diseases, resulting in higher yields and improved crop quality.

Hybrid Rice Seeds

The company provides high-yielding hybrid rice seeds that are resistant to diseases and pests, suitable for various climate conditions.

Corn Seeds Coating Technology

Origin Agritech Limited offers a seed coating technology that enhances seed germination, growth, and resistance to pests and diseases.

Agricultural Biotechnology Research and Development

The company provides research and development services for agricultural biotechnology, including genetic engineering, gene editing, and marker-assisted breeding.

Crop Protection Products

Origin Agritech Limited offers a range of crop protection products, including pesticides, fungicides, and herbicides, to help farmers manage pests and diseases.

8. Origin Agritech Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Origin Agritech Limited is moderate due to the presence of alternative agricultural products and services in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Origin Agritech Limited is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Origin Agritech Limited is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but the company's large scale of operations gives it some bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Origin Agritech Limited is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the agricultural industry and the attractiveness of the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Origin Agritech Limited is high due to the presence of several established players in the market and the high stakes of competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	-0.42%
Debt Cost	10.55%
Equity Weight	100.42%
Equity Cost	10.55%
WACC	10.55%
Leverage	-0.42%

11. Quality Control: Origin Agritech Limited passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

CVR Partners

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

China Green Agriculture

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Origin Agritech

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Huadi International

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Gulf Resources

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Grupa Azoty

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 1.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

15.54%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

10.55%

Origin Agritech Limited - VGG678282051

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on SEED

1.c. Company Highlights

More Volatile

Fairly Valued

Average Growth

Stable Momentum

Cheaper

Average Yield

Medium Volatility

Average Quality

Weak Momentum

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Hybrid Crop Seed Development, Production and Distribution

Expected Growth: 8.5%

7. Detailed Products

Genetically Modified (GM) Corn Seeds

Hybrid Rice Seeds

Corn Seeds Coating Technology

Agricultural Biotechnology Research and Development

Crop Protection Products

8. Origin Agritech Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Origin Agritech Limited passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.42$

Current Price

1.42$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA