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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer products in the United States.The company offers ammonia products for agricultural and industrial customers; and urea and ammonium nitrate products to agricultural customers, as well as retailers and distributors.CVR GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company.


CVR Partners, LP was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on UAN

CVR Partners' recent performance has been driven by strong financial results, with Q3 2025 net income surging to $43 million, or $4.08 per common unit, and EBITDA reaching $71 million on net sales of $164 million. The company's unique production capabilities and strong demand in the mineral nitrogen fertilizer market have contributed to its growth prospects. A "Buy" rating has been justified by a DCF analysis indicating a fair value of $125.57 per share, representing a significant upside. Additionally, the company declared a higher-than-expected Q3 distribution of $4.02.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CVR Partners' Q3 Earnings: Strong Performance Amidst Favorable Market Conditions

CVR Partners reported net sales of $164 million, net income of $43 million, and EBITDA of $71 million for the third quarter. The company's consolidated ammonia plant utilization was 95%, resulting in combined ammonia production of 208,000 gross tons and UAN production of 337,000 tons. Notably, UAN and ammonia prices increased 52% and 33%, respectively, from the prior year period, driving revenue growth. Direct operating expenses were $58 million, and capital spending was $13 million. The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $206 million.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Net income of $43M and EBITDA of $71M on $164M in net sales, with a $4.02/unit distribution.
  • High Production Efficiency:: 95% ammonia plant utilization, producing 208K tons of ammonia and 337K tons of UAN.
  • Price Surge and Cost Control:: UAN and ammonia prices rose 52% and 33% YoY, while direct operating expenses remained at $58M.
  • Liquidity and Capital Discipline:: $206M liquidity and $13M capital spending, with Q4 capex guidance of $30–35M.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was strong, with high ammonia plant utilization and increased production volumes. The Coffeyville facility is currently undergoing a planned turnaround, which is expected to resume full production in a few weeks. CVR Partners continues to work on projects to improve reliability and production rates, including a project to allow the Coffeyville plant to utilize natural gas and additional hydrogen from the adjacent Coffeyville refinery as alternative feedstocks.

Outlook and Guidance

For the fourth quarter, CVR Partners estimates ammonia utilization to be between 80% and 85%, direct operating expenses to be between $58 million and $63 million, and total capital spending to be between $30 million and $35 million. The company is optimistic about the remainder of the year and into 2026, citing tight domestic and global inventories of nitrogen fertilizer, which have been supportive of higher prices. As per the management, the tight inventories are expected to continue supporting higher prices.

Valuation and Metrics

CVR Partners' current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/E Ratio' of 7.85, 'P/B Ratio' of 3.14, 'P/S Ratio' of 1.63, and 'EV/EBITDA' of 5.21. The 'Dividend Yield (%)' is 12.61%, indicating a relatively attractive yield for income investors. The 'ROIC (%)' is 19.72%, and 'ROE (%)' is 41.38%, suggesting strong profitability. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio is 1.52, indicating a manageable debt burden.

Earnings Surprise

The actual EPS came out at '-1.7' relative to estimates at '-0.33', indicating a negative surprise. Analysts' estimates for next year's revenue growth are not available. The stock's current valuation multiples suggest that the market is pricing in a certain level of earnings growth and profitability. However, the negative EPS surprise may impact investor sentiment.

3. NewsRoom

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Dividend Power Dogs: 12 Ideal Safer November Stars

Nov -16

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Undercovered Dozen: Okta, Arbor Realty Trust, CVR Partners And More

Nov -07

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CVR Partners: Still Not Too Late For Likely Double Digit Yields

Nov -01

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CVR Partners, LP Common Units (UAN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

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CVR Partners Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Oct -29

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CVR Partners to Release Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Results

Oct -16

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CVR Partners: Higher Prices And Expanded Production Will Improve The EPS Forecast

Oct -02

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Dividend Power Dogs: 12 Ideal 'Safer' September Stars

Sep -18

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.50%)

6. Segments

Urea Ammonium Nitrate

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for crop nutrition and plant growth, increasing adoption of precision agriculture, and rising need for sustainable farming practices drive the growth of the UAN market.

Ammonia

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for ammonia-based fertilizers in agriculture, increasing adoption in industrial applications, and rising natural gas production drive the market growth.

Freight

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The freight segment of CVR Partners, LP is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for fertilizer and ammonia, expansion of production capacity, and rising transportation costs.

Urea Products

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for fertilizers in agriculture, increasing adoption of precision farming, and rising industrial applications drive the growth of CVR Partners' Urea Products segment.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The 'Other' segment of CVR Partners, LP is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizers, expansion of the nitrogen fertilizer plant, and diversification of revenue streams through miscellaneous income.

7. Detailed Products

Nitrogen Fertilizers

CVR Partners, LP produces nitrogen fertilizers, including ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN) for agricultural and industrial applications.

Sulfuric Acid

CVR Partners, LP produces sulfuric acid, a strong acid used in various industrial processes.

Ammonia

CVR Partners, LP produces anhydrous ammonia, a key ingredient in the production of nitrogen fertilizers.

UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate)

CVR Partners, LP produces UAN, a liquid fertilizer used in agriculture.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

CVR Partners, LP produces AN, a nitrogen-based fertilizer used in agriculture.

8. CVR Partners, LP's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CVR Partners, LP is moderate due to the availability of alternative products and services in the energy industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CVR Partners, LP is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CVR Partners, LP is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the energy industry.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CVR Partners, LP is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the energy industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CVR Partners, LP is high due to the competitive nature of the energy industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 64.51%
Debt Cost 5.24%
Equity Weight 35.49%
Equity Cost 10.53%
WACC 7.12%
Leverage 181.75%

11. Quality Control: CVR Partners, LP passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Westlake Chemical Partners

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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CVR Partners

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Oil-Dri

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Friedman Industries

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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US Lime & Minerals

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Intrepid Potash

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

93.76$

Current Price

93.76$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows