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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lotus Bakeries NV provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally.The company offers biscuits and cakes, including caramelized cookies, gingerbreads, cake specialties, waffles, and pepparkakor biscuits.It also provides energy bars, protein flapjacks, protein nut bars, healthy snacks, butter specialties, ice creams, and caramelized cookies spreads.


The company sells its products under the Lotus Biscoff, Nakd, Trek, BEAR, Kiddylicious, Lotus, Dinosaurus, Peijnenburg, Snelle Jelle, Annas, Lotus Suzy, and Urban Fruit brands.The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Lembeke, Belgium.Lotus Bakeries NV is a subsidiary of Stichting Administratiekantoor van Aandelen Lotus Bakeries.

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1.b. Last Insights on LOTB

Lotus Bakeries NV's recent performance was negatively impacted by capacity constraints and cost pressures, despite a 16% revenue increase in FY 2024. The company's strategic investments and expansion efforts, such as the licensing tie-up with Mondelez, have created new opportunities, but also increased operational complexity. The partnership with Froneri for ice cream production and distribution may lead to further capacity constraints and logistical challenges. Additionally, the introduction of new products combining Biscoff biscuits with Mondelez's chocolate brands may require significant marketing and distribution efforts, potentially straining resources.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lotus Bakeries' Strong FY25 Results Driven by Double-Digit Growth

Lotus Bakeries reported a strong set of results for FY25, with revenues increasing by 10% to EUR 1.35 billion, driven by continued strong volume growth in both Lotus Biscoff and Lotus Natural Foods. The company's underlying EBITDA margin expanded to over 20%, with underlying EBITDA growing by 12% compared to the prior year. The net profit increased by 13%, and the strong reduction of net financial debt led to a historic low multiple of 0.25x underlying EBITDA. The actual EPS was not disclosed, but it beat estimates by a significant margin, with a ratio of actual to estimates at 105.93.

Publication Date: Feb -10

📋 Highlights
  • Double-Digit Sales Growth:: Reported sales reached EUR 1.35 billion, reflecting a 10% increase, driven by strong volume growth in Lotus Biscoff and Natural Foods, with constant currency growth outpacing this due to currency headwinds.
  • Profitability Expansion:: Underlying EBITDA exceeded 20%, up 12%, while net profit rose 13%, and net financial debt fell to a historic low of 0.25x underlying EBITDA.
  • Strategic CapEx Investments:: EUR 120 million allocated for capital expenditures, primarily for the Thailand plant, which launched ahead of schedule, with EUR 250 million planned for 2026-2027 to expand capacity.
  • Strategic Pillar Performance:: Lotus Biscoff grew 13%, while Lotus Natural Foods surged 17%, maintaining a 11% compound annual growth rate over 20 years.
  • Future Growth Drivers:: Strong EBITDA margin guidance (~20% in 2026), Mondelez partnership expansion, and EUR 0.5 billion investment in M&A for healthy snacks and natural foods, alongside a EUR 14/share dividend increase.

Segment Performance

Lotus Biscoff achieved a growth of 13% in FY25, while Lotus Natural Foods was the fastest-growing strategic pillar with a growth of 17%. The company's partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly and contributed positively to the results. The successful start-up of the new plant in Thailand, which began production ahead of schedule and within budget, also supported the growth.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects to continue delivering strong growth in FY26, with capacity in place to support the growth of Biscoff. The EBITDA margin is expected to be in line with FY25, with the Thailand plant fully consolidated into the results from January 1. The Mondelez partnership is expected to have a positive impact on EBITDA, and the company is confident about its growth prospects, particularly in India.

Valuation and Dividend

The company's valuation metrics indicate a premium rating, with a P/E Ratio of 50.6 and an EV/EBITDA of 33.49. The Dividend Yield is 0.71%, and the company has proposed an increase in the dividend payout. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is low at 0.72, indicating a strong balance sheet. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 11.0% for the next year, which is slightly lower than the historical growth rate. As Jan Boone mentioned, "We are a growth company, delivering a compounded annual growth rate of 11% over the last 20 years."

3. NewsRoom

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Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTBY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic ...

Feb -07

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The Maker of Biscoff Cookies Bets on a Global Expansion

Jan -02

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LVMH: Share transactions disclosure

Sep -09

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The BANK of Greenland issued and early redemption of Senior Non-Preferred capital

Sep -09

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Cointreau Launches First-Ever Ready-To-Serve Range – Introducing Cointreau Citrus Spritz

Sep -09

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What Does the Steep 20% Drop Mean for Rémy Cointreau’s 2025 Outlook?

Sep -09

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Société Foncière Lyonnaise (ENXTPA:FLY): Assessing Valuation After a Year of Solid Share Price Gains

Sep -09

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Minor Hotels Europe & Americas (BME:NHH): Exploring Valuation After Steady Share Performance

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.00%)

6. Segments

Biscuits

Expected Growth: 12%

Lotus Bakeries' 12% growth in biscuits is driven by increasing demand for premium and healthier options, expansion in emerging markets, and successful product innovations. The company's focus on organic and vegan products, as well as strategic partnerships, have also contributed to its growth. Additionally, Lotus Bakeries' strong brand recognition and efficient supply chain management have enabled the company to capitalize on market trends and maintain its competitive edge.

7. Detailed Products

Biscoff Cookies

A type of speculoos cookie traditionally baked for St. Nicholas' Eve in Belgium and the Netherlands

Lotus Biscuits

A range of sweet and savory biscuits made with high-quality ingredients

Wafels

Thin, crispy wafels made with natural ingredients and no artificial additives

Cake and Pastry

A variety of sweet and savory cakes and pastries, including croissants, muffins, and quiches

Ice Cream Cones and Wafers

Crispy wafers and cones made from natural ingredients, perfect for holding your favorite ice cream

Biscuit and Cake Decoration

A range of decorations and toppings for biscuits and cakes, including sprinkles, candies, and more

8. Lotus Bakeries NV's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lotus Bakeries NV is moderate, as consumers have some alternatives to baked goods, such as snacks or confectionery products. However, the company's strong brand recognition and product differentiation mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is relatively low, as Lotus Bakeries NV operates in a competitive market with many players, making it difficult for individual customers to exert significant pressure on prices or product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate, as Lotus Bakeries NV relies on a diverse range of suppliers for ingredients and raw materials. While some suppliers may have some bargaining power, the company's scale and diversification mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is relatively low, as the baked goods industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, complex supply chains, and established brand recognition.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the baked goods industry is high, with many established players competing for market share. Lotus Bakeries NV must continually innovate and differentiate its products to maintain its competitive position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 30.68%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 69.32%
Equity Cost 5.49%
WACC 5.02%
Leverage 44.27%

11. Quality Control: Lotus Bakeries NV passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10300.0$

Current Price

10300$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows