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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Maple Leaf Foods Inc.produces food products in the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and internationally.It produces various food products, including prepared meats, ready-to-cook and ready-to-serve meals, snacks kits, fresh pork and poultry, and plant protein products.


The company offers its products under various brands, including Maple Leaf, Schneiders, Greenfield Natural Meat Co., Swift, Prime, Maple Leaf Natural Selections, Mina, Big Stick, Cappola, Deli Express, Field Roast Grain Meat Co., Holiday, Hygrade, Larsen, Lightlife, Lunch Mate, Main Street Deli, Maple Leaf Foodservice, Mitchell's, Olympic Craft Meats, Parma, Shopsy's, Sunrise, and Swift.Maple Leaf Foods Inc.is based in Mississauga, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on MFI

The recent 3-month performance of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. was driven by a 16% share price growth, as reported on April 9, 2025. This growth can be attributed to the company's robust 29% increase in adjusted EBITDA, as unveiled on February 26, 2025, during its Q4 2024 earnings call. Additionally, National Bank of Canada raised Maple Leaf Foods' price target to $27.00 from $26.00 on February 26, 2025, following the company's strong financial performance. Furthermore, the company's organizational changes, announced on January 30, 2025, aimed at sharpening its competitive edge, are expected to contribute to its future growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Maple Leaf Foods' Strong Q3 2025 Results Driven by Robust Sales Growth and Margin Expansion

Maple Leaf Foods delivered a strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with total company sales growth of 8% and adjusted EBITDA increasing 22% to $171 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 140 basis points to 12.6%. The company's EPS came in at $0.21, below analyst estimates of $0.2573. The strong top and bottom-line performance was driven by robust profitable growth in both the CPG business and pork operations, with CFO David Smales noting that the company's leverage ratio remains well within an investment-grade range, with a total company net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2x.

Publication Date: Nov -12

📋 Highlights
  • Spin-Off Completion & Strategic Shift: Successfully spun off pork operations into Canada Packers, transforming into a protein-focused, brand-led CPG company with 8% sales growth and 22% adjusted EBITDA increase ($171M) in Q3 2025.
  • Margin Expansion & Cost Management: Achieved 140-basis-point adjusted EBITDA margin improvement (12.6%) and 110-basis-point margin expansion in continuing operations, despite 70%+ pork trim price hikes.
  • Brand Innovation & Growth: Launched two new brands (Mighty Protein, Musafir) and over 50 new products in 2025, driving CPG growth and targeting 8% annual revenue growth, outpacing broader CPG markets.
  • Debt Reduction & Financial Strength: Repaid $389M in debt post-spin-off, maintaining a 2x net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio (investment-grade range) and prioritizing disciplined capital allocation and dividend growth.
  • Margin Recovery Actions: Initiated pass-through price increases (full impact in Q1 2026) and a second wave of SG&A cuts to counter sustained raw material inflation and restore margin momentum.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company's continuing operations delivered solid results, with 8% sales growth and 110 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 11.1%. The company experienced short-term margin pressure due to rapid and sustained increases in raw material markets, but initiated pass-through price increases in the CPG business, which will fully materialize in Q1 2026. The company also announced a second wave of SG&A reductions to streamline operations and enhance cost discipline.

Valuation and Growth Expectations

With a current P/E Ratio of 16.48 and EV/EBITDA of 7.0, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for Maple Leaf Foods. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.1%, which is lower than the company's historical growth rate. The company's goal is to sustain mid-single-digit growth levels, driven by its U.S. growth platform, leadership in sustainable meats, and core brands. The dividend yield stands at 3.52%, providing a relatively stable return for investors.

Operational Highlights and Future Outlook

The company launched two new brands, Mighty Protein and Musafir, which demonstrate the strength of its innovation engine and momentum behind its CPG growth strategy. The company remains focused on delivering strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, generating healthy free cash flow, and using it to strengthen the balance sheet. With a bold vision to be the most sustainable protein company on earth, Maple Leaf Foods is well-positioned to take on the future, leading in protein, one of the most attractive segments of the global food market.

Challenges and Opportunities

The company faces margin pressures due to raw material input costs, but is taking steps to restore margins, including price increases effective in Q1. The company's pricing changes will take effect in February, and it expects to see the benefits of these changes in Q1. The company is also evaluating its pricing mechanisms, physical hedges, and derivative hedges to minimize volatility in its margins.

3. NewsRoom

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Maple Leaf Foods Joins Team Canada as Official Protein Partner

Dec -03

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Maple Leaf Foods Launches Mighty Protein Meat Sticks to Power Canadians on the Go

Nov -13

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Maple Leaf Foods Inc (MLFNF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Spin-Off and Robust ...

Nov -07

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Maple Leaf Foods (TSX:MFI) Profit Margin Soars, Challenging Bearish Growth Narratives

Nov -06

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Canada Packers Q3 Earnings, Sales Rise; Declares First Dividend

Nov -05

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Maple Leaf Foods Q3 Total Company Earnings and Sales Rise; Lowers Quarterly Dividend to $0.19

Nov -05

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Canada Packers Inc. Reports 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results and Declares First Dividend

Nov -05

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Maple Leaf Foods Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.93%)

6. Segments

Meat Protein

Expected Growth: 5%

Meat Protein from Maple Leaf Foods Inc. growth driven by increasing demand for plant-based protein, expanding distribution channels, and strategic acquisitions. Rising consumer awareness of health and sustainability benefits, coupled with innovative product offerings, contribute to the 5% growth rate.

Plant Protein

Expected Growth: 3%

Strong demand for plant-based protein, driven by increasing consumer adoption of flexitarian and vegan lifestyles, coupled with Maple Leaf Foods' strategic investments in product innovation, manufacturing capacity expansion, and marketing initiatives, have contributed to the 3% growth of the Plant Protein segment.

Non-Allocated

Expected Growth: 2%

Maple Leaf Foods Inc.'s Non-Allocated segment growth is driven by increasing demand for plant-based protein products, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, operational efficiency, and cost savings initiatives contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Meat Snacks

A variety of convenient, protein-rich snacks made from high-quality meats

Fresh Pork

Fresh, high-quality pork products sourced from Canadian farms

Bacon and Ham

Cured and smoked meats made with traditional recipes and high-quality ingredients

Sausages

Artisanal sausages made with premium meats and unique flavor profiles

Chicken and Turkey

Fresh and frozen poultry products sourced from Canadian farms

Plant-Based Proteins

Innovative, plant-based protein products made with high-quality ingredients

Value-Added Meats

Convenient, pre-seasoned, and pre-marinated meats for easy meal prep

8. Maple Leaf Foods Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as consumers have various alternatives to meat products, such as plant-based options and other protein sources.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. relies on a network of suppliers for raw materials, but the company's scale and diversification mitigate the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The meat processing industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and established distribution networks, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The meat processing industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry and puts pressure on Maple Leaf Foods Inc. to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 58.45%
Debt Cost 6.20%
Equity Weight 41.55%
Equity Cost 6.20%
WACC 6.20%
Leverage 140.69%

11. Quality Control: Maple Leaf Foods Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Maple Leaf Foods

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

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Jamieson Wellness

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Bridgford Foods

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.7

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B&G Foods

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Laird Superfood

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bon Natural Life

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.3$

Current Price

25.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows