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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NuVista Energy Ltd., an oil and natural gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.It primarily focuses on the condensate rich Montney formation in the Wapiti area of the Alberta Deep Basin.The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on NVA

NuVista Energy's recent performance was driven by strong operational results, with production reaching 67,680 Boe/d in Q3 2025. The company's agreement to be acquired by Ovintiv Inc. for $2.7 billion, or $18.00 per share, has also garnered attention. Analysts view the acquisition as a strategic move, with Wells Fargo raising Ovintiv's price target to $42, citing the superior Montney assets acquired from NuVista. Citi remains bullish on Ovintiv, citing the Montney expansion and NuVista acquisition as supportive of future growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

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NuVista Energy (TSX:NVA): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains

Nov -26

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Wells Fargo Raises Ovintiv (OVV) PT to $42, Cites Superior Montney Assets from NuVista Energy Acquisition

Nov -25

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Montney Expansion and NuVista Energy Acquisition to Support Ovintiv (OVV) Future Growth; Citi Remains Bullish

Nov -24

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U.S. oil companies, energy investors 'looking at Canada again' amid flurry of deals

Nov -20

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NuVista Energy Ltd. Announces Third Quarter Financial and Operating Results

Nov -11

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NuVista Energy (TSX:NVA): Assessing Value After Strong Shareholder Returns and Price Gains

Nov -10

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Ovintiv (OVV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

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Vinson & Elkins Advises NuVista Energy on Acquisition by Ovintiv Inc.

Nov -05

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.98%)

6. Segments

Condensate

Expected Growth: 8%

NuVista Energy Ltd.'s condensate growth is driven by increasing demand from refineries, strong operational efficiency, and strategic asset acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost, high-margin production and its proximity to key markets contribute to its 8% growth rate.

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 12%

NuVista Energy Ltd.'s 12% growth in Natural Gas is driven by increased production from its Pipestone Montney play, improved well performance, and optimized drilling and completion techniques. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiencies has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, favorable market conditions, including strong demand and higher prices, have also supported the segment's expansion.

Royalties

Expected Growth: 6%

The 6% growth in royalties from NuVista Energy Ltd. is driven by increasing oil and natural gas production, improved commodity prices, and a favorable operating environment. Additionally, NuVista's focus on cost reduction and efficiency initiatives has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the company's strategic acquisitions and divestitures have also enhanced its royalty revenue stream.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 9%

NuVista Energy Ltd.'s 9% growth in Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increased production from its Wapiti Montney play, improved well performance, and optimized drilling and completion techniques. Additionally, the company's strategic hedging program and strong marketing agreements have contributed to higher realized prices, further boosting growth.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

NuVista Energy Ltd. produces high-quality crude oil from its oil-rich assets in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

Natural Gas

NuVista Energy Ltd. extracts natural gas from its assets in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, providing a clean-burning fuel source.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

NuVista Energy Ltd. produces NGLs, including ethane, propane, and butane, as a byproduct of natural gas processing.

Condensate

NuVista Energy Ltd. produces condensate, a light, sweet crude oil, from its assets in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

8. NuVista Energy Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for NuVista Energy Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for NuVista Energy Ltd. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for NuVista Energy Ltd. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for NuVista Energy Ltd. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the energy industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for NuVista Energy Ltd. is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the energy industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.07%
Debt Cost 16.57%
Equity Weight 91.93%
Equity Cost 18.06%
WACC 17.94%
Leverage 8.77%

11. Quality Control: NuVista Energy Ltd. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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NuVista Energy

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.7

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A-Score: 4.7/10

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.77$

Current Price

18.77$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows