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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sienna Senior Living Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides senior living and long-term care (LTC) services in Canada.It operates through Retirement and LTC segments.The company offers a range of seniors' living options, including independent supportive and assisted living, memory care, and long-term care services, as well as specialized services comprising dementia care, continence management, skin and wound care, palliation, and end of life care; and provides management services.


As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated a total of 70 seniors' living residences comprising 27 retirement residences, 35 LTC residences, and eight seniors' living residences.The company was formerly known as Leisureworld Senior Care Corporation and changed its name to Sienna Senior Living Inc.in May 2015.


Sienna Senior Living Inc.was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Markham, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on SIA

Recent news surrounding Sienna Senior Living Inc. suggests that the company has been focused on its dividend payments, announcing a January dividend of $0.078 per common share, payable on February 14, 2025. This follows a November dividend announcement, indicating a consistent approach to shareholder returns. However, the company's recent earnings releases have been overshadowed by a change in the timing of its third-quarter conference call and the announcement of its fourth-quarter results release date.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sienna Senior Living's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Sienna Senior Living Inc. reported revenue of $278.4 million in Q4 2025, representing a 14.2% year-over-year increase, driven by occupancy and rental rate growth, as well as increased care revenue. The company's same-property NOI increased by 10.1% to $47.4 million, with a 15.4% increase in the Retirement segment and a 5.6% increase in Long-Term Care. However, the actual EPS came out at $0.07, missing estimates of $0.25. Analysts had estimated revenue growth of 2.8% for the next year.

Publication Date: Mar -05

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q4 2025 proportionate revenue rose 14.2% to $278.4M, driven by occupancy (95%), rental rates, and care revenue increases.
  • NOI Expansion:: Same-property NOI grew 10.1% to $47.4M, with retirement segment up 15.4% and LTC up 5.6%.
  • Capital Access:: Issued nearly $700M in equity/debt, adding $800M+ in assets, while maintaining $500M liquidity and $1.5B unencumbered assets.
  • Optimization Portfolio:: Achieved 790 bps occupancy increase YoY and 22.1% NOI growth in Q4, with 24% margins.
  • Development Yield:: Glen Rouge redevelopment ($250M cost) targets 7.5–8% yield, reflecting strong Ontario market fundamentals.

Financial Performance and Guidance

The company's financial performance was strong, with a robust pipeline and opportunities in both long-term care and retirement lines of business. Sienna maintained a strong financial position and balance sheet, ending the year with over $500 million in liquidity and $1.5 billion of unencumbered assets. The company expects to continue its growth momentum in 2026, with same-property NOI growth in excess of 10% in the Retirement segment and in the low single digits in Long-Term Care.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced into Sienna Senior Living's stock, we can look at its valuation metrics. The company has a P/E Ratio of 49.98, P/B Ratio of 3.09, and EV/EBITDA of 23.02. The Dividend Yield is 4.01%, while the Free Cash Flow Yield is -1.85%. The ROE is 6.93%, and the ROIC is 4.16%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 8.3. These metrics indicate that the company's stock may be priced for high growth expectations, but the actual EPS miss and revenue growth estimate may impact the stock's performance.

Operational Highlights

Nitin Jain mentioned that the company's 10% growth rate is a combination of rent growth, occupancy increase, and other factors. They're currently at 95% occupancy, which is uncharted territory, and some homes are already at 100% occupancy. The company's optimization portfolio saw occupancy increase by 790 basis points year-over-year in Q4 and NOI grew by 22.1%. The lease-up of the Hygate property in Waterloo is tracking ahead of expectations, and the company is seeing strong demand for the property.

Industry Trends

The company is seeing economic trends that may lead to an increase in supply in the future, particularly in retirement homes. Demographic changes are happening, with baby boomers entering senior living, and obsolete retirement homes needing to be replaced. The cost of building and buying these facilities has also skyrocketed, making it challenging for new entrants. As a result, only sophisticated senior living providers can afford to enter this complex market, leading to more discipline in the industry.

3. NewsRoom

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Sienna Senior Living Inc. (TSE:SIA) Given Consensus Rating of “Buy” by Analysts

Mar -26

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Sienna Senior Living (TSE:SIA) Stock Price Passes Above Fifty Day Moving Average – Time to Sell?

Mar -20

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Sienna Announces March Dividend

Mar -13

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Sienna Senior Living Inc. (TSE:SIA) Receives Average Rating of “Buy” from Analysts

Mar -01

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Sienna Senior Living (TSE:SIA) Reaches New 1-Year High Following Analyst Upgrade

Feb -24

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Brokerages Set Sienna Senior Living Inc. (TSE:SIA) PT at C$22.67

Feb -07

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Sienna Announces Completion of $250 Million Offering of 3.524% Series F Senior Unsecured Debentures

Dec -18

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Sienna Announces November Dividend

Nov -14

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.52%)

6. Segments

Long-term Care

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s Long-term Care segment growth of 4.5% is driven by increasing demand for senior care services, aging population, and government funding for healthcare. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions, expansion of existing facilities, and focus on high-acuity care are contributing to its growth.

Retirement

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s 4.8% growth driven by increasing demand for senior living services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on providing high-quality care and amenities, as well as its efforts to improve operational efficiency, have contributed to its growth.

Adjustments for Joint Venture

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s 3.2% growth in Adjustments for Joint Venture is driven by increasing demand for senior living services, strategic partnerships, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on expanding its portfolio of high-quality senior living communities and investing in technology to enhance operational efficiency have contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Long-Term Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers long-term care services for seniors who require ongoing medical and personal care. This includes 24/7 nursing care, medication management, and assistance with daily living activities.

Memory Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. provides memory care services specifically designed for seniors living with Alzheimer's disease or other forms of dementia. This includes specialized programming, activities, and care tailored to meet the unique needs of individuals with memory impairments.

Assisted Living

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers assisted living services for seniors who require assistance with daily living activities such as bathing, dressing, and medication management. This includes support with daily tasks, meals, and social activities.

Independent Living

Sienna Senior Living Inc. provides independent living services for active seniors who want to maintain their independence while having access to amenities and services. This includes private suites, meals, and social activities.

Respite Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers respite care services for seniors who require temporary care and support. This includes short-term stays, meals, and social activities.

8. Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Sienna Senior Living Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as seniors have limited alternatives for senior living services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Residents and their families have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of senior living services offered by Sienna Senior Living Inc.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Suppliers of food, medical equipment, and other essential services have moderate bargaining power, as Sienna Senior Living Inc. relies on them for quality services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital investments required to establish a senior living facility.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The senior living industry is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors, including Sienna Senior Living Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 72.92%
Debt Cost 5.74%
Equity Weight 27.08%
Equity Cost 9.69%
WACC 6.81%
Leverage 269.32%

11. Quality Control: Sienna Senior Living Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Extendicare

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Sienna Senior Living

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
NHC

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Addus HomeCare

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cryo-Cell International

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
ASHS

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

22.7$

Current Price

22.7$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows