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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sienna Senior Living Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides senior living and long-term care (LTC) services in Canada.It operates through Retirement and LTC segments.The company offers a range of seniors' living options, including independent supportive and assisted living, memory care, and long-term care services, as well as specialized services comprising dementia care, continence management, skin and wound care, palliation, and end of life care; and provides management services.


As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated a total of 70 seniors' living residences comprising 27 retirement residences, 35 LTC residences, and eight seniors' living residences.The company was formerly known as Leisureworld Senior Care Corporation and changed its name to Sienna Senior Living Inc.in May 2015.


Sienna Senior Living Inc.was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Markham, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on SIA

Recent news surrounding Sienna Senior Living Inc. suggests that the company has been focused on its dividend payments, announcing a January dividend of $0.078 per common share, payable on February 14, 2025. This follows a November dividend announcement, indicating a consistent approach to shareholder returns. However, the company's recent earnings releases have been overshadowed by a change in the timing of its third-quarter conference call and the announcement of its fourth-quarter results release date.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sienna Senior Living's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Sienna Senior Living reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 16.4% year-over-year to $261.7 million, driven by occupancy and rental rate growth, as well as increased care revenue. Same-property NOI increased by 9.7% to $46.4 million, with the Retirement segment seeing a 13.2% increase and the Long-Term Care segment seeing a 6.7% increase. However, the company's EPS came in at $0.07, significantly lower than the estimated $0.25. The AFFO payout ratio improved to 78.7% in Q3 2025, compared to 91.3% in Q3 2024, highlighting Sienna's strong operating results and successful deployment of capital.

Publication Date: Nov -20

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Same-Property NOI Growth: Retirement segment saw 13.2% increase, Long-Term Care rose 6.7%, driven by occupancy and rental growth.
  • Occupancy Surge: Average same-property occupancy hit 94.1% in Q3 (up 230 bps YoY), reaching 94.7% in October amid optimization efforts.
  • Revenue & NOI Expansion: Revenue jumped 16.4% to $261.7M; same-property NOI rose 9.7% to $46.4M, with redevelopments boosting 40%+ NOI in 5 properties.
  • Improved AFFO Payout Ratio: Declined to 78.7% in Q3 2025 from 91.3% in Q3 2024, reflecting better capital deployment and operational efficiency.
  • Redevelopment Pipeline Impact: Projects expected to add $4.7M annually to AFFO (3% AFFO/share increase) once operational, with $800M+ in 2025 acquisitions and developments.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was strong, with average same-property occupancy up 230 basis points year-over-year, reaching 94.1% in the third quarter, and increasing to 94.7% in October. The optimization efforts in five properties resulted in a 970 basis point increase in occupancy year-over-year, supporting NOI growth of over 40%. Sienna's long-term care operations also performed well, with fully occupied homes, growing wait lists, and higher revenue from private accommodations contributing to the strength of the results.

Growth Prospects and Guidance

Sienna expects same-property NOI to increase by 13% to 14% year-over-year in the Retirement segment and by 4% to 5% in the Long-Term Care segment. The company expects rental growth to be in the range of 4% to 5%, with opportunities to drive margins and NOI growth through various levers. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 55.79 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 22.71, the market appears to be pricing in significant growth expectations for Sienna Senior Living. The company's ROE is 6.15%, and the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 8.55, indicating a relatively high level of debt. However, the Dividend Yield is 4.58%, providing a relatively attractive return for income investors.

Acquisition Strategy and Pipeline

Sienna has been active on the acquisition front, signing purchase agreements for two properties in Ontario. The company's ability to structure deals and its operational expertise will be key factors in its acquisition strategy. The pipeline remains strong, with opportunities in development and acquisitions, and the company's appetite for acquisitions is not constrained by capital availability, but rather by operational management constraints.

3. NewsRoom

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Sienna Announces November Dividend

Nov -14

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Sienna Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Continues Growth in Greater Toronto Area

Nov -13

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Sienna Expands Retirement Portfolio in Key Ontario Market

Nov -06

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Sienna Announces The Opening of Its Long-Term Care Community Redevelopment in Brantford, Ontario

Oct -21

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Sienna Announces October Dividend

Oct -15

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Sienna Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results Release Date and Conference Call

Oct -03

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Sienna Senior Living Completes Acquisition in Greater Toronto Area

Oct -02

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Sienna Senior Living (TSX:SIA) Declares C$1 Annualized Dividend Per Common Share

Sep -15

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.52%)

6. Segments

Long-term Care

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s Long-term Care segment growth of 4.5% is driven by increasing demand for senior care services, aging population, and government funding for healthcare. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions, expansion of existing facilities, and focus on high-acuity care are contributing to its growth.

Retirement

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s 4.8% growth driven by increasing demand for senior living services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on providing high-quality care and amenities, as well as its efforts to improve operational efficiency, have contributed to its growth.

Adjustments for Joint Venture

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s 3.2% growth in Adjustments for Joint Venture is driven by increasing demand for senior living services, strategic partnerships, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on expanding its portfolio of high-quality senior living communities and investing in technology to enhance operational efficiency have contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Long-Term Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers long-term care services for seniors who require ongoing medical and personal care. This includes 24/7 nursing care, medication management, and assistance with daily living activities.

Memory Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. provides memory care services specifically designed for seniors living with Alzheimer's disease or other forms of dementia. This includes specialized programming, activities, and care tailored to meet the unique needs of individuals with memory impairments.

Assisted Living

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers assisted living services for seniors who require assistance with daily living activities such as bathing, dressing, and medication management. This includes support with daily tasks, meals, and social activities.

Independent Living

Sienna Senior Living Inc. provides independent living services for active seniors who want to maintain their independence while having access to amenities and services. This includes private suites, meals, and social activities.

Respite Care

Sienna Senior Living Inc. offers respite care services for seniors who require temporary care and support. This includes short-term stays, meals, and social activities.

8. Sienna Senior Living Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Sienna Senior Living Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as seniors have limited alternatives for senior living services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Residents and their families have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of senior living services offered by Sienna Senior Living Inc.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Suppliers of food, medical equipment, and other essential services have moderate bargaining power, as Sienna Senior Living Inc. relies on them for quality services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital investments required to establish a senior living facility.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The senior living industry is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors, including Sienna Senior Living Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 72.92%
Debt Cost 5.74%
Equity Weight 27.08%
Equity Cost 9.69%
WACC 6.81%
Leverage 269.32%

11. Quality Control: Sienna Senior Living Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Extendicare

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Sienna Senior Living

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
NHC

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cryo-Cell International

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Addus HomeCare

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
ASHS

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

20.36$

Current Price

20.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows