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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver.It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties.


The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

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1.b. Last Insights on TFPM

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s recent performance was driven by record gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) sales, with the company achieving its ninth consecutive year of record GEOs. The company's Q4 2025 revenue reached $118.9 million, with full-year revenue at $388.7 million. Stifel Canada maintained a buy rating on the stock, with a price target of C$58.00. Additionally, the company received approval for its normal course issuer bid renewal, allowing it to repurchase shares. Its robust earnings report and strategic growth opportunities have garnered attention.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Triple Flag Precious Metals Shines with Record Production and Cash Flow

Triple Flag Precious Metals reported an outstanding financial performance in 2025, with record production of 113,000 GEOs, resulting in record cash flow per share of $1.54, a 45% increase from 2024. The actual EPS came out at $0.517, beating estimates of $0.317. Revenue growth is expected to be 6.9% next year. With a strong financial performance, the company's cash flow per share has been increasing consecutively for nine years, demonstrating a robust operational performance.

Publication Date: Feb -22

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Record Production:: Achieved 113,000 GEOs (upper half of guidance), 9th consecutive YoY increase.
  • 2025 Cash Flow Growth:: Cash flow per share surged to $1.54, a 45% rise from 2024.
  • 2026-2030 Growth Outlook:: 2030 target of 140,000–150,000 GEOs (45%+ growth from 2026 midpoint of 100,000 GEOs).
  • 2025 Capital Investments:: $350M deployed in value-accretive deals, including Arcata, Arthur Oxide, and Minera Florida.
  • Asset Expansion Plans:: Northparkes expansion study (7.6M to 10M tonnes/yr) and E44 gold deposit advancement to production by 2030.

Operational Highlights and Guidance

The company's guidance range for 2026 is 95,000 to 105,000 GEOs, reflecting mine sequencing at Northparkes and a planned step-down in the Cerro Lindo stream rate. However, the company has significant embedded growth, with a 2030 outlook of 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs, representing approximately 45% growth from the midpoint of their 2026 guidance. This growth is driven by multiple assets advancing through construction, permitting, and study stages.

Investment and Growth Opportunities

In 2025, Triple Flag invested over $350 million in value-accretive deals, including the Arcata restart and ramp-up in Peru, the Arthur Oxide project in Nevada, the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona, and the Minera Florida producing mine in Chile. The company remains debt-free with over $70 million in cash and $1 billion available on their credit facility, positioning them well for future growth opportunities. As management noted, a $400 million deal would be meaningful and move the needle for the company.

Valuation and Return Philosophy

With a P/E Ratio of 32.3 and an EV/EBITDA of 23.62, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for the company. The Dividend Yield is 0.6%, indicating a relatively low return from dividends. The company's capital return philosophy remains focused on a progressively increasing dividend and deploying capital into accretive opportunities. The ROIC of 9.98% and ROE of 12.71% indicate a decent return on investment.

Future Prospects and Risks

The company is exceptionally well-positioned to deliver long-term and organic value for shareholders from a diversified portfolio of producing and development assets across premier mining jurisdictions. However, the company is involved in litigation regarding ATO, but feels confident in its position and has removed it from 2026 guidance and 2030 projections, considering it as upside only.

3. NewsRoom

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production and ...

Feb -19

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Triple Flag (TFPM) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

Feb -19

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Feb -19

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Triple Flag: Q4 Earnings Snapshot

Feb -18

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Triple Flag Delivers Record Earnings Per Share and Operating Cash Flow Per Share Growth in 2025

Feb -18

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Triple Flag Declares Q1 2026 Dividend

Feb -18

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Paul Singer's Strategic Moves: A Closer Look at OR Royalties Inc

Feb -18

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Stifel Lifts Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Target to C$65 on Capital Discipline

Feb -16

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.18%)

6. Segments

Gold

Expected Growth: 12.0%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s 12.0% growth in gold is driven by increasing production at its Nevada and Ontario mines, strong gold prices, and successful exploration efforts. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Silver

Expected Growth: 11.5%

Silver from Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. growth driven by increasing demand for solar panels, electric vehicles, and 5G infrastructure, coupled with supply constraints from mine closures and reduced capital expenditures. Additionally, central banks' gold purchases and ETF inflows boost silver prices, while recycling and industrial applications provide steady demand.

Royalty Interests

Expected Growth: 13.5%

The 13.5% growth in Royalty Interests from Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is driven by increasing gold and silver prices, expansion of existing mines, and new acquisitions. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of royalties across various mines and jurisdictions reduces risk and provides a stable source of revenue.

Streaming and Related Interests - Other

Expected Growth: 12.5%

Robust demand for streaming services, increasing adoption of digital entertainment, and strategic partnerships drive growth in Streaming and Related Interests - Other segment of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., resulting in 12.5% growth. Additionally, expansion into new markets, innovative content offerings, and improving user engagement also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold Streaming

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. provides gold streaming services, which involve purchasing a percentage of gold production from mining companies in exchange for an upfront payment.

Silver Streaming

The company offers silver streaming services, similar to gold streaming, but focused on silver production.

Royalty Financing

Triple Flag provides royalty financing to mining companies, which involves purchasing a percentage of future production in exchange for an upfront payment.

Metal Purchases

The company purchases metals, such as gold and silver, from mining companies at a discounted price, providing an alternative source of revenue.

8. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is low due to the unique properties of precious metals and the lack of suitable alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is medium due to the presence of a few large customers, but the company's diversified customer base mitigates this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is high due to the concentration of suppliers in the mining industry and the company's dependence on a few key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is medium due to the presence of several competitors in the industry, but the company's differentiated product offerings and strong market position mitigate this risk.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 3.16%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 96.84%
Equity Cost 2.63%
WACC 2.68%
Leverage 3.27%

11. Quality Control: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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China Gold International Resources

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Cabot

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.3

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Reliance Steel & Aluminum

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.7

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Triple Flag Precious Metals

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.0

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CMC

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Celanese

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

51.49$

Current Price

51.49$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows