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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver.It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties.


The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

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1.b. Last Insights on TFPM

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s recent performance was driven by its impressive Q3 2025 earnings report, which showcased record adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow. The company's net income reached $61.9 million, with earnings of 30 cents per share. Analysts have raised revenue and earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026, fueling optimism. Stifel Canada maintained a buy rating, with a price target of C$58.00. The company also declared a dividend of US$0.0575 per common share, payable on December 15, 2025.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Triple Flag's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Record-Breaking Quarter

Triple Flag reported a record-breaking third quarter in 2025, with 27,000 GEOs driving adjusted EBITDA of $79 million and operating cash flow per share of $0.39. The company's actual EPS came out at $0.3343, beating estimates of $0.2852. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 6.6% increase in revenues for the next year. The company's strong financial performance is reflected in its valuation metrics, with a P/E Ratio of 35.06 and an EV/EBITDA of 16.81, indicating a premium valuation.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Record Q3 Performance:: Achieved 27,000 GEOs, $79M adjusted EBITDA, and $0.39 operating cash flow per share.
  • $350M Portfolio Expansion:: Deployed capital into 5 assets, including Tres Quebradas (Argentina), Arcata (Peru), and Minera Florida (Chile) royalty.
  • Strong Balance Sheet:: Exited Q3 with ~$0 net debt and $1B liquidity, enabling further accretive investments.
  • Minera Florida Growth:: $23M royalty acquisition targets 1,000 GEOs by 2028 via mill expansion and exploration potential.

Investment Strategy and Portfolio

Triple Flag has made significant additions to its portfolio year-to-date, deploying over $350 million of capital across five investments, including the Tres Quebradas lithium mine in Argentina and the Arcata silver mine in Peru. The company's investment strategy focuses on top-tier precious metals assets, with revenue nearly 90% sourced from mining-friendly jurisdictions. As James Dendle, COO, mentioned, "This is exactly the sort of royalty that drives shareholder value over time in the royalty sector as we have open-ended exposure to top-line revenues and resource expansion over time."

Dividend and Shareholder Returns

The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.0575 per share, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders. With a dividend yield of 0.74%, Triple Flag offers an attractive income stream to its investors. The company's strong balance sheet, with nearly $1 billion in total liquidity available, provides the capital to continue deploying dollars into accretive opportunities.

Growth Prospects and Outlook

Triple Flag is guiding for 135,000 to 145,000 ounces GEOs in 2029, a significant increase from current levels. The growth is expected to be driven by several assets ramping up, including the Arcata silver mine and Johnson Camp. With a diversified portfolio of well-positioned assets, the company is well-placed to achieve its growth targets. As James Dendle mentioned, "We have several assets ramping up... We also expect increased production from operating mines like Northparkes and Beta Hunt."

3. NewsRoom

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This Gold Stock Hit A Buy Point And A New High — But There's A Catch

Dec -04

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Are Basic Materials Stocks Lagging Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) This Year?

Nov -21

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3 TSX Stocks Estimated To Be 20.6% To 45.2% Below Intrinsic Value

Nov -17

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Triple Flag Receives Approval for Normal Course Issuer Bid Renewal

Nov -13

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Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM)

Nov -11

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Performance ...

Nov -11

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How Recent Analyst Moves Are Shaping the Triple Flag Precious Metals Investment Story

Nov -08

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Maintained at Buy at Stifel Canada Following Q3 Results; Price Target Kept at C$58.00

Nov -06

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.18%)

6. Segments

Gold

Expected Growth: 12.0%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s 12.0% growth in gold is driven by increasing production at its Nevada and Ontario mines, strong gold prices, and successful exploration efforts. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Silver

Expected Growth: 11.5%

Silver from Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. growth driven by increasing demand for solar panels, electric vehicles, and 5G infrastructure, coupled with supply constraints from mine closures and reduced capital expenditures. Additionally, central banks' gold purchases and ETF inflows boost silver prices, while recycling and industrial applications provide steady demand.

Royalty Interests

Expected Growth: 13.5%

The 13.5% growth in Royalty Interests from Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is driven by increasing gold and silver prices, expansion of existing mines, and new acquisitions. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of royalties across various mines and jurisdictions reduces risk and provides a stable source of revenue.

Streaming and Related Interests - Other

Expected Growth: 12.5%

Robust demand for streaming services, increasing adoption of digital entertainment, and strategic partnerships drive growth in Streaming and Related Interests - Other segment of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., resulting in 12.5% growth. Additionally, expansion into new markets, innovative content offerings, and improving user engagement also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold Streaming

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. provides gold streaming services, which involve purchasing a percentage of gold production from mining companies in exchange for an upfront payment.

Silver Streaming

The company offers silver streaming services, similar to gold streaming, but focused on silver production.

Royalty Financing

Triple Flag provides royalty financing to mining companies, which involves purchasing a percentage of future production in exchange for an upfront payment.

Metal Purchases

The company purchases metals, such as gold and silver, from mining companies at a discounted price, providing an alternative source of revenue.

8. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is low due to the unique properties of precious metals and the lack of suitable alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is medium due to the presence of a few large customers, but the company's diversified customer base mitigates this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is high due to the concentration of suppliers in the mining industry and the company's dependence on a few key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is medium due to the presence of several competitors in the industry, but the company's differentiated product offerings and strong market position mitigate this risk.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 3.16%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 96.84%
Equity Cost 2.63%
WACC 2.68%
Leverage 3.27%

11. Quality Control: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Cabot

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
China Gold International Resources

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Reliance Steel & Aluminum

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Triple Flag Precious Metals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 1.7

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CMC

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Celanese

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

45.22$

Current Price

45.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows