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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alm.Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark.The company offers its non-life insurance products, such as health and accident, workers' compensation, liability, vehicle, fire and property, marine, aviation and transport, and other insurance products to private households, agricultural, and commercial customers through its sales channels and partnerships.


The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALMB

Alm. Brand A/S's recent performance was driven by its ongoing share buy-back program, which is expected to reduce the number of outstanding shares and increase earnings per share. The company's strong financial position was further solidified by the assignment of an 'A2' insurance financial strength rating from Moody's Ratings, highlighting its robust creditworthiness. Additionally, the Danish FSA's approval of the Partial Internal Model is expected to reduce the solvency capital requirement by approximately DKK 0.6 billion, freeing up capital for strategic initiatives.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alm. Brand's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Organic Growth and Cost Control

Alm. Brand reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with insurance revenue growing by 10% in Personal Lines, driven by strong bank partnerships and price adjustments. The company's technical result was DKK 535 million, up from DKK 400 million in Q3 last year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 0.2006, below analyst estimates of 0.2767. The company's underlying loss ratio improved by 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to synergies and repricing.

Publication Date: Oct -31

📋 Highlights
  • Insurance Revenue Growth:: Personal Lines revenue surged 10% driven by bank partnerships and price adjustments.
  • Synergy Run Rate Exceeded Target:: Achieved DKK 600 million annualized synergies, surpassing original projections.
  • Technical Result Increase:: Q3 technical result rose to DKK 535 million (up from DKK 400 million YoY).
  • Insurance Service Results:: Commercial Lines at DKK 265 million (lower claims), Personal Lines at DKK 270 million.
  • Pricing Impact Outlook:: 1–2% net repricing benefit in Personal Lines, 2% in Commercial Lines for Q4–2026.

Segmental Performance

The insurance service result from Commercial Lines was DKK 265 million, driven by lower underlying claims, while Personal Lines had a sizable increase in the insurance service result to DKK 270 million. The company's synergies run rate reached DKK 600 million per year, exceeding the originally communicated target. As CFO Andreas Madsen noted, the effects of the extraordinary price initiatives would slow down as they go into Q4, with a 1% to 2% impact from repricing on a net basis in Personal Lines and a 2% impact in Commercial Lines.

Claims Inflation and Pricing

The company expects claims inflation to more or less flatten out at current levels, with a possible decrease in the longer run. The main focus remains motor, with significant price hikes in motor coming from higher spare parts. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.0%, driven by continued strong organic growth and cost control.

Valuation and Outlook

Alm. Brand's current Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) is 2.17, indicating that the market is pricing in a premium for the company's strong franchise and growth prospects. The Dividend Yield is 3.29%, providing a relatively attractive return for investors. With the company's 170% solvency ratio target remaining unchanged, Alm. Brand is well-positioned to deliver on its strategic targets, including a technical result of DKK 1.85 billion in 2025.

Capital Expectations

The company's absolute capital base will be lower following the payout in March, but the solvency ratio target remains unchanged. Alm. Brand plans to provide an update on capital and surplus in November during the Capital Markets Day, providing further clarity on its capital management plans.

3. NewsRoom

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Dec -01

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Alm. Brand Group hosts Capital Markets Day and releases financial targets for 2028

Nov -18

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Nov -17

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Nov -10

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Nov -03

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Alm. Brand A/S - Interim report for Q3

Oct -29

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Oct -27

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Alm. Brand (CPSE:ALMB): Exploring Valuation After Strong Shareholder Returns and Recent Performance

Oct -25

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.88%)

6. Segments

Commercial

Expected Growth: 5.4%

Alm. Brand A/S's 5.4% commercial growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to top-line growth.

Private

Expected Growth: 5.4%

Alm. Brand A/S's 5.4% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost optimization has improved operational efficiency, contributing to top-line growth.

Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 8.37%

Alm. Brand A/S's 8.37% growth is driven by increasing premiums in non-life insurance, expansion in the Danish market, and improved claims handling efficiency. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in digitalization and cost-saving initiatives have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the Danish economy's stable growth and low interest rates have created a favorable business environment, supporting the company's growth momentum.

Non-Life

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alm. Brand A/S's Non-Life segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for motor insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.63%

Alm. Brand A/S's 4.63% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth. Furthermore, the Danish insurance market's growth and the company's strong brand reputation have also supported the growth momentum.

Elimination

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alm. Brand A/S's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Fire Insurance

Provides financial protection to individuals and businesses in the event of fire damage to their properties.

Liability Insurance

Covers damages or injuries caused to third parties, protecting the policyholder's assets.

Motor Insurance

Provides financial protection against damages or losses to vehicles, as well as liability coverage.

Health Insurance

Covers medical expenses, hospitalization, and other healthcare-related costs.

Travel Insurance

Provides financial protection against unforeseen events during travel, such as trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and luggage loss.

Cyber Insurance

Covers financial losses and liabilities resulting from cyber-attacks, data breaches, and other cyber-related risks.

Pension and Savings

Offers long-term savings and pension plans to ensure financial security in retirement.

8. Alm. Brand A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alm. Brand A/S operates in the insurance industry, where substitutes are limited. However, customers may choose to self-insure or opt for alternative risk management strategies, posing a moderate threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alm. Brand A/S has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often complex, making it difficult for customers to switch providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alm. Brand A/S has a diversified supplier base, which reduces dependence on individual suppliers. The company's scale and market position also give it bargaining power in negotiations with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The insurance industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Alm. Brand A/S to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The Danish insurance market is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Alm. Brand A/S must continually innovate and improve its products and services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 10.25%
Debt Cost 9.47%
Equity Weight 89.75%
Equity Cost 9.47%
WACC 9.47%
Leverage 11.42%

11. Quality Control: Alm. Brand A/S passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gjensidige Forsikring

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alm. Brand

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tryg

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Baloise Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Direct Line Insurance

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Topdanmark

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.76$

Current Price

17.76$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows