Repsol, S.A. (REP.MC) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Repsol, S.A. operates as an integrated energy company worldwide.Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves.The company's Industrial segment is involved in refining activities and petrochemicals business; the trading and transportation of crude oil and oil products; and the sale, transportation, and regasification of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Its Commercial and Renewables segment engages in the low carbon power generation and renewable sources; sale of gas and power; mobility and sale of oil products; and liquified petroleum gas activities.The company also offers asphalt products; installs, operates, and manages service stations; provides maritime services; constructs and operates oil refineries; refines and markets hydrocarbons; offers human resource services; distributes and supplies electricity; and develops new energy source, solar, and wind projects, as well as produces and markets chemical products, lubricants, and biofuels.Further, it is involved in fuel and special products marketing, research, trading and transport, insurance and reinsurance, technology development, and financing activities; develops nanoparticles and nanofibers for material, energy, and biomedicine applications; provides blockchain technology for retail, energy, and automotive sectors; produces synthetic oil cloths; invests in liquefaction plant project; and offers water treatment technology management services.

The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012.Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

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1.b. Last Insights on REP

Repsol's recent momentum stems from analysts' upward revisions, driven by optimism in the crude oil market and the company's strategic refining position. A recent fair value estimate increase to €15.27 per share reflects this positivity. Furthermore, Repsol secured a significant deal with Performance Shipping Inc., chartering two Suezmax tankers at $36,500 per day each. These developments have likely bolstered investor confidence. According to recent news, no major events have triggered the stock's movement, suggesting a fundamental story unfolding beneath the surface.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	16.29
Change Percentage	0.06%
Open	16.16
Previous Close	16.27
Market Cap ( Millions)	18125
Volume	3387018
Year High	17.15
Year Low	9.41
M A 50	15.65
M A 200	13.26

FCF Yield	6.75%
Dividend Yield	5.99%
ROE	2.87%
Debt / Equity	60.81%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	255.31%
Price To Book	0.78
Price Earnings Ratio	25.25
Price To FCF	14.81
Price To sales	0.26
EV / EBITDA	6.77

2. Repsol's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Operational and Financial Performance

Repsol's adjusted income for the third quarter of 2025 was EUR 820 million, a 17% increase from the second quarter and 47% higher than in the same period of 2024. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at 0.676, beating analyst estimates of 0.607. Cash flow from operations was EUR 1.5 billion, with an accumulated operating cash flow of EUR 4.3 billion, 15% higher than in the first nine months of 2024. The company's financial performance was driven by the strong contribution from its four divisions, with all of them improving their results over the third quarter last year.

Publication Date: Nov -03

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Adjusted Income Growth::
                                                Q3 2025 adjusted income rose to EUR 820 million, up 17% QoQ and 47% YoY.
Commercial Division Record::
                                                Achieved EUR 241 million adjusted income, 34% higher YoY and a new quarterly high.
Industrial Division Surge::
                                                Adjusted income reached EUR 315 million, 218% higher QoQ and 70% YoY.
Shareholder Remuneration::
                                                EUR 1.8 billion allocated in 2025, with EUR 1.1 billion in dividends and EUR 700 million in buybacks.
CapEx Target::
                                                Net CapEx of EUR 3.5 billion for 2025, with ambitions to reduce further and maintain similar levels in 2026-2027.

                                

Segmental Performance

The Upstream division's adjusted income was EUR 317 million, 11% higher year-over-year, driven by a stable production level. The Industrial division's adjusted income was EUR 315 million, 70% above the same period a year ago, driven by the consolidation of the refining upcycle and the solid contribution from the trading business. The Commercial division delivered the highest quarterly result in its history, with an adjusted income of EUR 241 million, 34% higher than in the same period of 2024. The Low Carbon Generation division's adjusted income reached EUR 31 million, EUR 38 million higher year-over-year.

Outlook and Guidance

Repsol maintained its guidance for 2025, with a cash flow from operations target of around EUR 6 billion and net CapEx of around EUR 3.5 billion. The company plans to allocate EUR 1.8 billion to shareholder remuneration, with EUR 1.1 billion for cash dividends and EUR 700 million for share buybacks. Repsol expects to deliver on its commitments, with a strong business model that positions it well to manage the uncertainties of the current environment.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Repsol's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 24.73, a Dividend Yield of 6.11%, and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.86%. The company's proposed dividend for 2026 is EUR 1.05, driven by a 3% increase in the total amount distributed and a reduction in shares due to the share buyback process. With a strong business model and a commitment to shareholder remuneration, Repsol's dividend yield is attractive to income investors.

Operational Highlights and Future Plans

Repsol expects improvement in its Upstream segment, driven by new barrels and increased production. The Industrial segment will benefit from better margins, while the Chemical business will see improvement through competitiveness programs. The company has a positive view on the data center sector in Spain and plans to sell development rights to a potential promoter and provide PPAs. Repsol's Puertollano advanced power fuels plant is expected to start up in the second quarter of 2026, with no material delay.

3. NewsRoom

Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory

Dec -04

Source:

AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Gaviota Re S.A.

Dec -03

Source:

3 European Dividend Stocks With Up To 6% Yield

Dec -03

Source:

EIA sees Alaska 2026 oil production highest since 2018

Nov -19

Source:

Repsol explores reverse merger for upstream unit with US partners

Nov -14

Source:

How Recent Developments Are Shaping the Repsol Investment Story

Nov -08

Source:

Performance Shipping Inc. Secures Three-Year Time Charter Contracts With Repsol for Two Newly Acquired Modern Suezmax Tankers at US$36,500 Per Day Each

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference: Presentations Now Available for Online Viewing

Nov -05

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.07%)

6. Segments

Industrial

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Repsol's Industrial segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for petrochemicals, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors. Additionally, the company's focus on high-margin specialty chemicals and its strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, Repsol's efforts to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs have also supported the segment's expansion.

Customer

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Repsol's customer growth is driven by increasing demand for energy in Spain and Latin America, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into renewable energy sources. Additionally, Repsol's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting and retaining customers in a challenging market.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Repsol's 1.1% growth is driven by its strategic focus on upstream operations, increasing production in Latin America and Asia, and a strong refining margin in Spain. Additionally, the company's efforts to reduce debt and operating costs, as well as its growing presence in the renewable energy sector, contribute to its steady growth.

Upstream

Expected Growth: 1.3%

Repsol's upstream segment growth of 1.3% is driven by increased production in Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Colombia, as well as improved operational efficiency and cost savings. Additionally, the company's focus on exploration and development of new projects, such as the Aoka Mizu and Revival fields, contributes to the growth.

LCG

Expected Growth: 0.9%

LCG from Repsol, S.A. with 0.9 growth driven by increasing demand for low-carbon energy solutions, strategic partnerships, and investments in renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar power, as well as energy storage and grid integration.

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Repsol's petroleum products include a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and other petroleum-based products for various industries and consumers.

Natural Gas

Repsol is a major producer and supplier of natural gas, providing energy solutions for power generation, industrial processes, and residential use.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Repsol's LPG is a versatile energy source used for cooking, heating, and powering vehicles.

Chemicals

Repsol's chemicals business produces a range of petrochemicals, including polyethylene, polypropylene, and other specialty chemicals.

Renewable Energy

Repsol is investing in renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable energy solutions.

Lubricants

Repsol's lubricants business produces a range of lubricating oils and greases for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.

8. Repsol, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Repsol, S.A. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the high demand for oil and gas products reduces the likelihood of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Repsol, S.A. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers. The company's large customer base and diversified product offerings also reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Repsol, S.A. is medium due to the presence of a few large suppliers of oil and gas equipment and services. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Repsol, S.A. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Repsol, S.A. is high due to the presence of several large and established players in the oil and gas industry, leading to intense competition for market share and resources.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	30.50%
Debt Cost	4.29%
Equity Weight	69.50%
Equity Cost	8.60%
WACC	7.28%
Leverage	43.89%

11. Quality Control: Repsol, S.A. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

PKN ORLEN

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Repsol

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Eni

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

TotalEnergies

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Shell

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

3.88%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.28%

Repsol, S.A. - ES0173516115

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on REP

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Fairly Valued

Average Yield

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Earnings Beats

Average Growth

Higher Yield

Stable Momentum

Revenues Beats

Cheaper

Weak Momentum

Average Quality

Lower Quality

2. Repsol's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Operational and Financial Performance

Segmental Performance

Outlook and Guidance

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Operational Highlights and Future Plans

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.07%)

6. Segments

Industrial

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Customer

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Upstream

Expected Growth: 1.3%

LCG

Expected Growth: 0.9%

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Chemicals

Renewable Energy

Lubricants

8. Repsol, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Repsol, S.A. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

16.28$

Current Price

16.29$

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA