Eni S.p.A. (ENI.MI) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Eni S.p.A. engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas.It operates through Exploration & Production; Global Gas & LNG Portfolio; Refining & Marketing and Chemicals; Plenitude and Power; and Corporate and Other activities segments.The Exploration & Production segment is involved in the research, development, and production of oil, condensates and natural gas; and forestry conservation and CO2 capture and storage projects.

The Global Gas & LNG Portfolio segment engages in the supply and wholesale of natural gas by pipeline, international transport; and purchase and marketing of LNG.The Refining & Marketing and Chemicals segment is involved in the processing, supply, distribution, and marketing of fuels and chemicals.The Eni gas e luce, Power & Renewables segment engages in the retail sales of gas, electricity, and related activities, as well as in the production and wholesale of electricity produced by thermoelectric and renewable plants.

As of December 31, 2021, it had net proved reserves of 6,628 million barrels of oil equivalent; and installed operational capacity of 4.5 GW.The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on ENI

Breaking News: Eni S.p.A. is among the European oil majors poised for strong earnings due to exceptional trading profits amid extreme volatility in global oil and gas markets. The company's ability to offer a strong shareholder yield provides stability amidst the Hormuz crisis, which is disrupting oil flows and fueling inflation. Eni, along with Shell, is well-positioned to benefit from this trend. No recent earnings release was available, but analysts expect a stable performance from the company. A hold recommendation is given by several analysts.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	22.41
Change Percentage	2.96%
Open	22.45
Previous Close	21.76
Market Cap ( Millions)	65897
Volume	200
Year High	25.02
Year Low	12.19
M A 50	21.57
M A 200	17.07

FCF Yield	6.81%
Dividend Yield	4.73%
ROE	5.20%
Debt / Equity	80.60%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	210.56%
Price To Book	1.35
Price Earnings Ratio	24.83
Price To FCF	14.69
Price To sales	0.77
EV / EBITDA	6.52

2. Eni Surges Past Targets, Eyes 2026 Growth

Eni’s 2025 financials outpaced expectations, with revenue growth modestly offset by a 7.2% decline in sales volume yet still delivering a robust EBIT margin of 12%. EPS rose to €0.3921 versus the consensus of €0.3183, reflecting disciplined cost control and strong cash generation of €12.5 bn. The stock trades at a P/E of 27.48, a P/B of 1.5, and a dividend yield of 4.28%, underscoring a valuation that balances growth prospects with shareholder rewards.

Publication Date: Apr -10

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Operational Excellence:
                                                900 million barrels discovered in 2025, surpassing industry benchmarks.
Financial Strength:
                                                Cash flow from operations reached EUR 12.5 billion, EUR 1.5 billion above plan, with net debt reduced by EUR 3 billion and gearing at 14%.
Renewable Growth:
                                                Eni expanded renewable capacity by 40% in 2025 and is constructing three new biorefineries under Enilive.
Future CapEx Discipline:
                                                2026 gross CapEx capped at EUR 7 billion, maintaining pro-forma gearing between 10-15%, with EUR 5 billion net CapEx.
Exploration Success:
                                                Achieved nearly 100% exploration success rate in 2025, discovering 900 million barrels and maintaining a strong resource replacement ratio of over 160%.
Exceeded 2025 Targets:
                                                Underlying production rose 4%, outperforming guidance, with 900 million barrels of new resources discovered (10B+ since 2014 at < $1/barrel).
Financial Strength:
                                                Cash flow from operations hit EUR 12.5B (EUR 1.5B ahead of plan), reducing net debt by EUR 3B (gearing 14%) and maintaining 2026 gearing between 10-15%.
Renewable Expansion:
                                                Renewable capacity surged 40% in 2025, with Enilive constructing three biorefineries and a 500MW Italian data center planned.
Capital Discipline:
                                                2026 CapEx capped at EUR 7B (gross) and EUR 5B (net), aligning with sector-leading organic upstream growth and a 160%+ service replacement ratio.
Exploration Success:
                                                Achieved near-100% exploration success rate in 2025, with discoveries split 70% gas/30% oil since 2014, driving a 10% free cash flow per barrel increase.

                                

Operational Highlights

Six flagship projects launched in the Global Natural Resources segment pushed underlying production up 4%, surpassing guidance. Final investment decisions on four new assets delivered a service replacement ratio above 160%, while 900 m barrels of new resources were discovered at a cost under €1 per barrel, reaffirming Eni’s discovery leadership.

Upstream Production

Organic production growth remains sector‑leading, driven by rapid project ramp‑up and a near‑100% exploration success rate. The company’s 2026 CapEx is capped at €7 bn, with net CapEx around €5 bn, positioning it to sustain high‑grading production and a 10% free cash flow per barrel increase.

Downstream & Renewables

Gas & Power EBIT exceeded €1 bn for the fourth straight year, while EBITDA reached €2 bn thanks to integrated business models. Renewable capacity expanded 40%, with Enilive’s three biorefineries under construction, and the company is advancing CCS, battery storage, and data‑center projects in Italy.

Capital Structure & Cash

CFFO of €12.5 bn outpaced the plan by €1.5 bn, and net debt fell by €3 bn, bringing gearing to 14% at year‑end. Net Debt/EBITDA sits at 2.11, and the company plans a buyback with a reference price of $62 for 2026, signaling confidence in cash‑flow resilience.

Strategic Outlook

Eni will roll out a 2‑3 year shutdown plan and a detailed 2026 CapEx strategy at the upcoming Capital Markets Day. The company remains bullish on Venezuela’s gas recovery, CCS viability amid an ETS price near €90/tonne, and a biofuel demand surge in 2026, all while maintaining a disciplined portfolio and value‑creation focus.

3. NewsRoom

Trading Desks Boom While Big Oil Output Stalls

Apr -18

Source:

Hormuz Volatility: Stocks With Strong Shareholder Yield for Stability

Apr -17

Source:

European Stocks Rise in Friday Trading Following Middle East War Ceasefire

Apr -17

Source:

European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Sharply Higher in Friday Trading

Apr -17

Source:

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Lower Pre-Bell Friday

Apr -17

Source:

Repsol Reclaims Ground in Venezuela Oil Sector to Drive Output Growth

Apr -17

Source:

Williams Starts NESE Project to Expand Transco Pipeline Network

Apr -16

Source:

Is Eni Positioned to Gain From the Ongoing Strength in Crude Prices?

Apr -16

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.65%)

6. Segments

Exploration & Production

Expected Growth: 4.6%

Eni S.p.A's Exploration & Production segment growth is driven by increasing crude oil prices and growing demand for clean energy, with a significant focus on renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and natural gas as a bridge fuel.

Refining and Chemicals

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Eni S.p.A.’s Refining and Chemicals segment growth is driven by rising demand for petrochemicals, improving refining margins, and strategic expansion into high-growth markets, particularly in Asia.

Enilive

Expected Growth: 8.2%

Enilive by Eni S.p.A. driven by increasing demand for energy services, Eni’s strong brand reputation, and expansion into new markets, particularly in the renewable energy sector.

Global Gas & LNG Portfolio and Power

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Eni S.p.A.'s Global Gas & LNG Portfolio growth is driven by increasing demand in the Asia-Pacific region, expansion of liquefaction capacity, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on clean energy and reducing carbon emissions supports long-term growth prospects.

Plenitude

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Growing demand for renewable energy, declining costs of production, and Eni's strong brand presence drive growth in Plenitude segment, aligning with Europe's clean energy transition goals.

Corporate and Other Activities

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Eni's corporate and other activities are expected to grow, supported by the company's transformation plan, which includes the integration of its energy transition initiatives and the development of its renewable energy business, leading to an increased focus on sustainable energy solutions.

Consolidation Adjustments

Expected Growth: 4.3%

Eni's growth is driven by its strategic plan focused on decarbonization, growth in the renewable energy business, and increasing its presence in the liquefied natural gas market, thus enhancing its overall competitiveness.

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Eni S.p.A. refines and markets petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel.

Natural Gas

Eni S.p.A. explores, produces, and markets natural gas, a cleaner-burning fuel used for power generation, industrial processes, and heating.

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)

Eni S.p.A. produces and markets LNG, a natural gas that has been converted to a liquid state for easier transportation and storage.

Renewable Energy

Eni S.p.A. develops and operates renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Chemicals

Eni S.p.A. produces and markets a range of chemicals, including olefins, aromatics, and intermediate chemicals.

Biofuels

Eni S.p.A. produces and markets biofuels, a renewable energy source derived from organic matter.

Oilfield Services

Eni S.p.A. provides oilfield services, including drilling, completion, and production optimization.

8. Eni S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Eni S.p.A. operates in the energy industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the increasing focus on renewable energy sources and energy efficiency could pose a threat to the company's traditional business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Eni S.p.A. has a diverse customer base, including industrial, commercial, and residential customers. While large industrial customers may have some bargaining power, the company's diversified customer base reduces the overall bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Eni S.p.A. relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations, including oil and gas producers, equipment suppliers, and service providers. While some suppliers may have bargaining power, the company's scale and diversification reduce its dependence on any single supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and technical expertise. These barriers make it difficult for new entrants to challenge Eni S.p.A.'s market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Eni S.p.A. faces intense competition from other major energy companies, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	42.07%
Debt Cost	9.25%
Equity Weight	57.93%
Equity Cost	9.25%
WACC	9.25%
Leverage	72.62%

11. Quality Control: Eni S.p.A. passed 1 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Repsol

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

PKN ORLEN

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Eni

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

TotalEnergies

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Shell

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

4.94%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.25%

Eni S.p.A. - IT0003132476

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ENI

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Higher Yield

Average Quality

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Lower Quality

Stable Momentum

2. Eni Surges Past Targets, Eyes 2026 Growth

Operational Highlights

Upstream Production

Downstream & Renewables

Capital Structure & Cash

Strategic Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.65%)

6. Segments

Exploration & Production

Expected Growth: 4.6%

Refining and Chemicals

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Enilive

Expected Growth: 8.2%

Global Gas & LNG Portfolio and Power

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Plenitude

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Corporate and Other Activities

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Consolidation Adjustments

Expected Growth: 4.3%

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)

Renewable Energy

Chemicals

Biofuels

Oilfield Services

8. Eni S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Eni S.p.A. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

22.4$

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA