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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sampo Oyj, through its subsidiaries, provides life and non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Baltic countries.It operates through If, Topdanmark, Hastings, Mandatum, and Holding segments.The company offers household, homeowner, motor, accident, travel, boat, forest, livestock, property, casualty, liability, car, van, bike, and cargo insurance.


It also provides life, individual and group pension, home and content, illness, animal, electronics, change of ownership, workers' compensation, rewards, marine, aviation, and transport insurance, as well as wealth management and asset management services.Sampo Oyj was founded in 1909 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.

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1.b. Last Insights on SAMPO

Sampo Oyj's recent performance was driven by a strong like-for-like top-line growth of 8% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to sustained momentum in the private businesses in the Nordics and the UK. The company's underwriting result increased by 25% year-over-year, with a favourable claims environment and a positive underlying trend in the Nordics contributing to an improved combined ratio of 83.6%. Additionally, the launch of a EUR 200 million share buyback programme is expected to return excess capital and enhance shareholder value.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sampo Group's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Premium Growth and Solid Margins

Sampo Group delivered excellent results in the third quarter of 2025, with a 14% increase in operating EPS to EUR 0.38, driven by strong premium growth and solid margins. The company's underwriting margin improved by 50 basis points, driven by both cost and risk ratio. Year-to-date underwriting profit grew by 17%. The actual EPS came out at EUR 0.14, beating estimates of EUR 0.13. The company's revenue growth is expected to be around 6.9% next year according to analysts' estimates.

Publication Date: Nov -06

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Premium & Margin Growth: Premium growth driven by private/SME, underwriting margin up 50 bps, 17% ytd underwriting profit growth
  • NOBA Investment Gains: EUR 355m gain from NOBA stake, EUR 150m share buyback planned, 15% stake valued at EUR 636m
  • EPS Target Upgrade: Operating EPS rose 14% to EUR 0.38, 2024-2026 guidance raised to "above 9%" growth
  • Strategic Growth Areas: 50%+ of premiums in digital UK, PI Nordics, SMEs; UK operating ratio target 88-90% maintained
  • Financial Strength: Solvency ratio 172%, Nordic cost ratio 22.5% (40 bps improvement target), 10% new car sales growth in Nordics

Business Performance

Sampo's strategy is focused on leveraging its unique operational capabilities to drive organic growth, with structural growth opportunities in areas representing more than half of its premiums, including the digital UK market, PI in the Nordics, private property, and SMEs. The company's results show that its strategy has traction, with growth in all countries and business areas. Sampo has upgraded its operating EPS target for 2024-2026 to above 9%, driven by strong performance and confidence in its growth momentum.

UK and Nordic Operations

In the UK, Sampo has sustained attractive policy count growth and solid margins, despite market pricing falling. The company has shifted its growth towards areas with attractive margins, such as telematics and other specialty products. Sampo's Nordic cost ratio has developed favorably, with a target of 40 basis points reduction for this year and next. The company's commercial book of business continues to deliver solid growth, driven by target areas such as SME and PI.

Valuation and Solvency

Sampo's solvency ratio is 172%, which includes the full buyback announced today. The company's solvency position is strong, with nothing to flag in terms of concerns. With a Price-to-Book Ratio of 3.72, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability. The Dividend Yield is 3.48%, indicating a relatively attractive return for investors. The company's underwriting discipline remains intact, and it is committed to growing at attractive margins.

Outlook

The company's operating EPS target has been upgraded to above 9%, which is a signal of strong performance and belief in continued growth. Sampo will continue to reduce its holding in NOBA and eventually exit the position. The fixed income running yield has dropped below the mark-to-market yield, and the book yield is expected to trend downwards by roughly 30 basis points over the next couple of years.

3. NewsRoom

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 3 December 2025

Dec -04

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 2 December 2025

Dec -03

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 1 December 2025

Dec -02

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 28 November 2025

Dec -01

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How Recent Developments Are Shaping the Sampo Investment Story

Nov -29

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 27 November 2025

Nov -28

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 26 November 2025

Nov -27

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Sampo plc’s share buybacks 25 November 2025

Nov -26

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.47%)

6. Segments

If

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Sampo Oyj’s insurance segment is expected to grow due to its strong market position, efficient operations, and increasing demand for insurance products in the Nordic region, driven by economic growth and an ageing population.

Topdanmark

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Sampo Oyj's Topdanmark insurance services segment is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and cost savings from digitalization and process efficiencies.

Hastings

Expected Growth: 8.4%

Hastings, a subsidiary of Sampo Oyj, is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for motor insurance, expansion into new markets, and a focus on digitalization to improve customer experience.

Holding

Expected Growth: 5.6%

Sampo Oyj's holding segment growth is driven by its diversified investment portfolio and strategic partnerships, contributing to a stable long-term growth outlook.

Elimination

Expected Growth: 4.7%

Sampo Oyj Elimination segment is expected to grow due to the company's continued focus on improving its operational efficiency, cost savings, and strategic divestments, which will lead to increased profitability and drive long-term growth.

7. Detailed Products

Life Insurance

Sampo Oyj offers life insurance products that provide financial protection to individuals and families in the event of death or disability.

Non-Life Insurance

Sampo Oyj provides non-life insurance products that cover risks such as accidents, property damage, and liability.

Pension Insurance

Sampo Oyj offers pension insurance products that help individuals save for retirement and ensure a steady income stream in old age.

Investment Products

Sampo Oyj provides investment products such as mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles.

Banking Services

Sampo Oyj offers banking services such as savings accounts, loans, and credit cards.

8. Sampo Oyj's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Sampo Oyj operates in the insurance industry, where substitutes are limited. However, digitalization and fintech companies may pose a threat in the future.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Sampo Oyj's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand and diversified product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Sampo Oyj has a diversified supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The insurance industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements, making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The insurance industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Sampo Oyj faces intense rivalry from other insurance companies.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 27.81%
Debt Cost 4.31%
Equity Weight 72.19%
Equity Cost 7.59%
WACC 6.68%
Leverage 38.52%

11. Quality Control: Sampo Oyj passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Allianz

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Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Zurich Insurance

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Talanx

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.7

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AXA

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.7

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Sampo

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.94$

Current Price

9.94$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows