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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Carrefour SA operates stores in various formats and channels in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, and Taiwan.The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, cash and carry stores, and hypercash stores; e-commerce sites; and service stations.Its stores offer fresh produce; local products; consumer goods; and non-food products, including electronic and household appliances, textiles, and childcare products.


The company is also involved in banking, insurance, property development, and franchise activities; the provision of travel agency services; and the rental of shopping malls.As of December 31.2021, it operated 253 hypermarkets, 1,043 supermarkets, 4,330 convenience stores, 147 cash and carry outlets, and 26 soft discount stores in France; 457 hypermarkets, 1,926 supermarkets, 3,430 convenience stores, 12 cash and carry outlets, and 81 soft discount stores in rest of Europe; 184 hypermarkets, 151 supermarkets, 558 convenience stores, 259 cash and carry outlets, and one soft discount store in Argentina and Brazil; and 70 hypermarkets, four supermarkets, and 274 convenience stores in Taiwan, as well as 688 stores through local franchisee partners in Middle East, Africa, etc.


Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is based in Massy, France.

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1.b. Last Insights on CA

Breaking News: Carrefour SA reported robust growth in operating income and market share for 2025, despite navigating macroeconomic hurdles and integration costs. Total sales grew, but net income dropped to €319m from €723m in 2024 due to higher tax and integration costs. The company has partnered with AI company Vusion to digitize its hypermarkets and supermarkets in France. Carrefour also announced that Pricer will no longer be its exclusive supplier of electronic shelf labels. Analysts at Bernstein recommend a hold on the stock, citing strong performance in France.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Carrefour's 2025 Earnings: Solid Performance and Strategic Progress

Carrefour's financial performance in 2025 was solid, with total sales for the year reaching EUR 24.3 billion in the fourth quarter, and like-for-like sales up 1.6% over the quarter. The recurring operating income for the group amounted to EUR 2.158 billion, or 2.6% of net sales. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 1.08, below analyst estimates of EUR 1.24. The company's EBITDA was stable, and net free cash flow was EUR 1.565 billion, excluding the impact of Italy.

Publication Date: Feb -19

📋 Highlights
  • Portfolio Restructuring:: Full control of Carrefour Brazil, disposal of Carrefour Italy, and exclusivity agreement for Romania, aiming to streamline operations and focus on core markets.
  • France Market Share Recovery:: Achieved 22% market share (highest since 2015) with 456 new convenience stores opened, driven by commercial model investments and price gap reduction.
  • Recurring Operating Income Growth:: Group recurring operating income reached EUR 2.158 billion (2.6% of net sales), up 200 bps ex-Cora/Match, reflecting improved efficiency.
  • Dividend Increase & Special Payout:: Proposed EUR 0.97/share ordinary dividend (+5.4%) and EUR 150M special dividend post-Romania disposal, yielding ~8.3% cash return.
  • Free Cash Flow & Cost Management:: EUR 1.565B net free cash flow in 2025 (excluding Italy), with 2026 target of EUR 1.7B supported by lower CapEx (EUR 1.523B) and integration cost normalization.

Operational Highlights

Carrefour's operational performance was strong in key markets. In France, the company continued to invest in its commercial model and pricing, narrowing the price gap with the market, and its market share increased to 22%, its highest point since 2015. The company opened a record 456 new convenience stores, driven by a record number of new partners joining Carrefour. In Spain, Carrefour benefited from solid momentum in a dynamic market, with food sales showing strong growth, driven by fresh products.

Strategic Progress

Carrefour made significant strategic progress in 2025, including taking full control of Carrefour Brazil, disposing of Carrefour Italy, and signing an exclusivity agreement for Carrefour Romania. The disposal of Carrefour Romania is based on an enterprise value of EUR 823 million, implying a valuation multiple of 4.8x 2025 EBITDA. The company plans to use the proceeds from the disposal to pay a special dividend and retain some on the balance sheet for flexibility.

Valuation and Dividend

Carrefour's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive dividend yield. The company's P/E Ratio is 31.03, and the Dividend Yield is 6.22%. The proposed ordinary cash dividend of EUR 0.97 per share represents a 5.4% increase compared to last year, and the special dividend of EUR 0.21 per share brings the total dividend to EUR 1.18 per share, which is a cash yield of approximately 8.3% on the basis of the share price as of December 31, 2025.

Outlook

Carrefour is confident in its prospects for 2026, driven by a good market outlook, solid underlying business dynamics, and supportive technical swings. The company expects an additional EUR 75 million of contribution to net free cash flow in 2026, which will decrease the net cost of debt. The company's free cash flow target for 2026 is EUR 1.7 billion, which is within sight, driven by the normalization of financial results and lower restructuring cash-outs.

3. NewsRoom

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Spain Gift Card Business and Investment Report 2026: A $5.83 Billion Market by 2030 Featuring Mercadona, El Corte Ingles, Lidl, Carrefour, Consum, Eroski, JD.com, Zara, Leroy Merlin

Feb -20

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Turkey Gift Card Business Report 2026: A $3.66 Billion Market by 2030 from $2.32 Billion in 2025 Featuring BIM, A101, Amazon, Sok Marketler, Migros, Carrefour, Teknosa, Ikea, MediaMarkt, Waikiki

Feb -19

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Carrefour and Vusion sign France-wide smart store rollout by 2030

Feb -19

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Carrefour and Vusion join forces to deploy the smart store at scale

Feb -18

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Carrefour 2025 sales grow as profit hit by currency and integration costs

Feb -18

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Pricer continues as partner to Carrefour but no longer as exclusive supplier of ESL

Feb -18

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Carrefour Aims to Boost Tech, Focus on Key Regions

Feb -18

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Carrefour (CRERF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Performance in France and ...

Feb -18

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.00%)

6. Segments

Integrated Store Network

Expected Growth: 1.0%

Carrefour SA's Integrated Store Network growth is driven by its omnichannel strategy, enhancing customer experience through seamless online and offline shopping. Effective supply chain management, strategic partnerships, and investments in digital capabilities also contribute to this growth. Additionally, the company's focus on private labels, loyalty programs, and data analytics further support its 1.0 growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Hypermarkets

Large retail stores offering a wide range of products including food, non-food, and services

Supermarkets

Medium-sized retail stores offering a variety of food and non-food products

Cash & Carry

Wholesale stores offering bulk purchases of food and non-food products

Convenience Stores

Small retail stores offering a limited range of essential products

E-commerce

Online shopping platform offering a wide range of products with home delivery

Fuel Stations

Petrol stations offering fuel, convenience items, and services

Banking and Insurance Services

Financial services including banking, insurance, and credit products

8. Carrefour SA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Carrefour SA faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have alternative options for grocery shopping, such as online retailers and local markets.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Carrefour SA has a large customer base, but individual customers have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative retailers and online shopping options.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Carrefour SA has a strong bargaining position with its suppliers, given its large scale of operations and ability to negotiate better prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Carrefour SA, as entering the retail market requires significant capital investment and established relationships with suppliers.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The retail industry is highly competitive, with Carrefour SA facing intense rivalry from other major retailers, such as Walmart and Tesco.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 58.40%
Debt Cost 4.79%
Equity Weight 41.60%
Equity Cost 6.35%
WACC 5.44%
Leverage 140.37%

11. Quality Control: Carrefour SA passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Sainsbury

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Value: 6.6

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Axfood

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Kesko

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 7.5

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Volatility: 9.3

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Carrefour

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 1.6

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.7

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A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.7

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A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.31$

Current Price

15.31$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows