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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tronox Holdings plc operates as a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.The company operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines; and engages in beneficiation and smelting operations.It offers TiO2 pigment; ultrafine specialty TiO2; zircon; feedstock; pig iron; titanium tetrachloride; and other products.


The company's products are used for the manufacture of paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications.Tronox Holdings plc is based in Stamford, Connecticut.

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1.b. Last Insights on TROX

Tronox Holdings plc faced negative drivers over the recent 3 months. A quarterly loss of $0.46 per share was reported, missing revenue estimates. This compares unfavorably to a loss of $0.13 per share a year ago. Multiple class action lawsuits were filed against the company, alleging securities fraud between February 12, 2025, and July 30, 2025. These lawsuits, led by firms such as Robbins LLP, The Schall Law Firm, and Rosen Law Firm, cite alleged violations of federal securities laws.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Tronox Holdings: Weaker Demand Impacts Q3 Results

Tronox Holdings reported revenue of $699 million for Q3 2025, a 13% decrease compared to the prior year third quarter, driven by lower sales volumes and unfavorable pricing for both TiO2 and zircon. The company reported a net loss attributable to Tronox of $99 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74 million. The actual EPS came out at -$0.46, missing estimates of -$0.21. The company's financial performance was impacted by weaker demand, downstream destocking, and heightened competitive dynamics in the TiO2 and zircon markets.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Q3 revenue fell to $699 million, a 13% decrease YoY, driven by lower sales volumes and unfavorable pricing in TiO2 and zircon markets.
  • Cash Flow Actions:: Idling facilities and cost-cutting measures generated $25–30 million in Q4 cash benefits, with $60 million in annualized savings by year-end.
  • Debt Management:: Net debt stood at $3.0 billion (6% weighted average interest rate), but liquidity improved to $664 million via $400 million in new senior secured notes.
  • Antidumping Impact:: Tariff enforcement in EU, Brazil, and India is limiting Chinese imports, with Brazil’s duties reaching $1,200/ton on major importers.

Operational Challenges and Cost Management

The company has taken proactive steps to manage its cash flow, including idling its Fuzhou pigment plant, adjustments at its Stallingborough pigment plant, and shutting down its West mine. These efforts are expected to generate an estimated cash benefit of $25 million to $30 million in the fourth quarter and position the company for free cash flow in the fourth quarter and 2026. As John Romano mentioned, "We're taking steps to preserve cash, including idling assets and reducing capital expenditures."

Outlook and Valuation

The company's updated outlook for the fourth quarter is for revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat to Q3 of '25. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.1%. With a P/S Ratio of 0.18 and EV/EBITDA of 12.14, the stock appears to be undervalued. However, the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 10.34 raises concerns about the company's debt levels. The company's focus on cost reduction and cash preservation is expected to drive free cash flow positivity in 2026.

Rare Earth Strategy and Antidumping Duties

The company is making progress in its rare earth strategy, including mining monazite in Australia and South Africa and processing it for downstream use. The company has taken a 5% equity interest in Lion Rock Minerals, a mineral exploration company, to support its rare earth strategy. Additionally, the company is expecting a positive outcome on the reinstatement of antidumping duties in India, which is expected to benefit its TiO2 business.

Conclusion on Financial Health

The company's liquidity as of September 30 was $664 million, including $185 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company's net debt was $3.0 billion, and its weighted average interest rate was 6%. With a Dividend Yield of 10.39%, the stock may be attractive to income investors. However, the ROE of -14.3% and ROIC of -10.55% raise concerns about the company's profitability.

3. NewsRoom

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First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund Q3 2025 Portfolio Review

Nov -20

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Lion Rock Minerals maps monazite-enriched granite at Minta Est; infill drilling to target monazite and xenotime

Nov -12

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Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

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Tronox (TROX) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

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Tronox Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

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Tronox Holdings plc Class Action: Levi & Korsinsky Reminds Tronox Investors of the Pending Class Action Lawsuit with a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of November 3, 2025 – TROX

Nov -03

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FINAL DEADLINE ALERT: Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Investigates Claims on Behalf of Investors of Tronox

Nov -03

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TROX Investors Have Opportunity to Lead Tronox Holdings plc Securities Fraud Lawsuit with the Schall Law Firm

Nov -03

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.46%)

6. Segments

Titanium Dioxide

Expected Growth: 8%

Tronox Holdings plc's Titanium Dioxide segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the coatings and plastics industries, supported by infrastructure development and urbanization in emerging markets. Additionally, the company's cost leadership, vertical integration, and strategic acquisitions contribute to its growth, with an expected 8% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 5%

Tronox Holdings plc's 'Other' segment growth is driven by increasing demand for titanium dioxide in emerging markets, expansion into new geographies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings, and product innovation also contribute to its growth.

Zircon

Expected Growth: 6%

Tronox Holdings plc's Zircon segment growth is driven by increasing demand from ceramics and foundry markets, coupled with supply constraints and rising prices. Additionally, the company's vertical integration, cost savings initiatives, and strategic acquisitions contribute to its growth momentum, resulting in a 6% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)

A pigment used in coatings, plastics, and paper to provide opacity and brightness.

Zircon

A mineral used in ceramics, foundry, and refractory applications.

Feedstock

A raw material used in the production of titanium dioxide.

Mineral Sands

A mixture of minerals used in various industrial applications.

8. Tronox Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Tronox Holdings plc operates in the mining and manufacturing of titanium dioxide pigment, which has few substitutes. However, the company faces competition from other titanium dioxide producers, which could lead to a moderate threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Tronox Holdings plc has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are essential to its customers' production processes, making it difficult for customers to switch suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Tronox Holdings plc relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials, which gives these suppliers some bargaining power. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The titanium dioxide industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and environmental regulations. This makes it difficult for new entrants to join the market, reducing the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The titanium dioxide industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. This intense rivalry leads to pricing pressure and high marketing expenses for Tronox Holdings plc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 59.53%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 40.47%
Equity Cost 13.43%
WACC 7.78%
Leverage 147.11%

11. Quality Control: Tronox Holdings plc passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
UFP Industries

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Innospec

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Huntsman

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 1.7

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Tronox

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Celanese

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.84$

Current Price

3.84$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows