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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries.It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services.The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content.


The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on GENI

Genius Sports Limited's recent performance was driven by its Q3 2024 earnings release, which topped revenue estimates despite a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share. The company's revenue growth was fueled by its partnerships with major sports leagues and events, including the NBA 2K25 DataCast alternative telecast on truTV & Max for the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Knockout Round Coverage. Additionally, an analyst's optimistic outlook for the company's growth in 2024, citing conservative estimates, suggests a positive sentiment towards the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Genius Sports Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Growth in Media and Betting Segments

Genius Sports reported a robust Q3 2025, with group revenue increasing 38% year-on-year, driven primarily by the Media segment, which grew nearly 90% year-on-year to $42 million. The company's adjusted EBITDA also saw a significant increase of 32% year-on-year to $34 million, representing a 20% margin. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$0.11, missing estimates of $0.13. Betting revenue grew 28% year-on-year, driven by growth with existing customers. The company's operating cash flow was $27 million, demonstrating the seasonality of its cash flow.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Surge:: Group revenue rose 38% YoY to $109.3M, with Media driving 89% growth to $42M.
  • EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA jumped 32% YoY to $34M (20% margin), up from 16% in prior year.
  • Media Momentum:: Advertising revenue growth fueled by 400+ new advertisers and $100M+ in agency deals.
  • Guidance Raised:: Full-year revenue now $655M (+28%) and EBITDA $136M (+59%), with 400 bps margin expansion.
  • Cash Flow Strength:: Operating cash flow reached $27M in Q3, with $82M expected in 2024 for strong FCF.

Segment Performance

The Media business was the largest contributor to revenue growth, with an 89% year-on-year increase. The company's advertising platform is unique due to its live sports data, audience data, and unique inventory. The acquisition of Sports Innovation Lab has brought an even deeper understanding of fan behavior, and the company is creating new ways for brands to reach sports fans. Bryan Castellani discussed the company's Media segment, noting that while it saw strong growth, it had a lower margin than the Betting business.

Guidance and Outlook

Genius Sports is raising its group revenue guidance from $645 million to $655 million, representing 28% growth for the full year, and its group adjusted EBITDA guidance to $136 million, representing 59% growth and 400 basis points of margin expansion. The company expects strong free cash flow in the fourth quarter, driven by operating cash flow. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 16.9%.

Valuation

With a P/S Ratio of 3.72 and an EV/EBITDA of -81.4, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE is -12.17%, and the ROIC is -15.57%, indicating that the return on investment is negative. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 8.24, suggesting a relatively high debt burden. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 0.42%, which is relatively low.

Growth Prospects

The company's Media business is expected to grow at above 20% for the foreseeable future, driven by strong growth this year, particularly in the US and the NFL. The NFL's international expansion is driving growth in bets being made overseas, and the company is seeing success with their BetVision product. Mark Locke expects the Betting Tech business to maintain above-market growth, driven by product rollouts and consolidation.

3. NewsRoom

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Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

Dec -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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GENinCode surges on Thermo Fisher deal to roll out heart-disease test

Dec -04

Source: proactiveinvestors.co.uk

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Genius Sports Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NYSE:GENI)

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Genius Sports to Detail Technology Advantage, Growth Strategy, and 2028 Financial Targets at its Investor Day

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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Genius Sports Joins Forces With FanDuel Sports Network to Launch Its Intelligent Content Platform Across the NBA and WNBA

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

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Ameritas Investment Partners Inc. Acquires Shares of 22,619 Genius Sports Limited $GENI

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Why a Hedge Fund Sold Most of Its Genius Sports Stake Despite Best Quarterly Performance in Years

Nov -30

Source: fool.com

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Analyzing Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) and LiveWorld (OTCMKTS:LVWD)

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (19.69%)

6. Segments

Betting Technology, Content and Services

Expected Growth: 23.8%

Growing demand for online sports betting, increasing adoption of AI-powered sports analytics, and expansion into new markets drive Genius Sports' growth, with a focus on data-driven solutions and sportsbook management.

Media Technology, Content and Services

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing demand for data-driven solutions in sports, media, and betting industries, driven by increasing adoption of digital platforms, rising popularity of online sports betting, and need for real-time data and analytics to inform business decisions.

Sports Technology and Services

Expected Growth: 14.1%

Growing demand for data-driven solutions, increasing adoption of sports analytics, and rising popularity of sports betting drive growth in Genius Sports' technology and services segment.

7. Detailed Products

Sports Data Feeds

Real-time sports data feeds providing detailed information on various sports, including scores, statistics, and schedules.

Sports Betting Solutions

Comprehensive sports betting solutions, including odds creation, risk management, and trading tools.

Integrity Services

Monitoring and integrity services to detect and prevent match-fixing and other forms of corruption in sports.

Digital Marketing Solutions

Targeted digital marketing solutions, including fan engagement platforms and sponsorship activation tools.

Sports Media Rights

Exclusive media rights to various sports properties, including leagues, tournaments, and events.

Fantasy Sports Solutions

Comprehensive fantasy sports solutions, including data, content, and platform services.

8. Genius Sports Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Genius Sports Limited operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Genius Sports Limited has a diverse customer base, reducing the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Genius Sports Limited relies on a few key suppliers, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's size and reputation mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The sports data and technology industry is rapidly evolving, and new entrants could potentially disrupt Genius Sports Limited's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The sports data and technology industry is highly competitive, with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 1.92%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 98.08%
Equity Cost 13.85%
WACC 13.66%
Leverage 1.95%

11. Quality Control: Genius Sports Limited passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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New Work

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Genius Sports

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 1.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Fiverr

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.3

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HomeToGo

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Perion Network

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Similarweb

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.83$

Current Price

10.83$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows