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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Riskified Ltd.operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.It offers Chargeback Guarantee that approves or denies online orders; Policy Protect and Account Secure, which identifies and blocks consumers that may be taking advantage of the merchant's terms and conditions or that may be trying to gain unauthorized access to another consumer's account; Deco and PSD2, a optimize products that help merchants to avoid bank authorization failures and abandoned shopping carts resulting from the secure customer authentication process.


The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

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1.b. Last Insights on RSKD

Riskified Ltd.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q3 2024 earnings and revenue beat, with solid revenue growth, improved EBITDA, and strong new product adoption. The company's advanced Artificial Intelligence platform continues to set it apart in the market, positioning it as a global leader in ecommerce fraud and risk intelligence. Additionally, Riskified achieved record quarterly free cash flows and authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company's partnership with Appriss Retail to offer an omnichannel returns fraud prevention solution also highlights its focus on innovation and customer satisfaction.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Riskified's Q3 Earnings: A Turnaround Story

Riskified's financial performance in Q3 2025 showed a significant turnaround, with revenue reaching a record $81.9 million, up 4% year over year. Non-GAAP gross profit also increased by 5% to $41.5 million, translating to a non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 51%. The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million, representing a margin expansion of 560 basis points year over year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.04, beating estimates of $0.03. The strong performance was driven by the company's push into non-discretionary categories, with the money transfer and payments category growing 100% in Q3.

Publication Date: Nov -18

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue reached $81.9M (+4% YoY), with 9-month revenue at $245.3M (+5% YoY).
  • Non-GAAP Gross Profit Expansion:: Q3 non-GAAP gross profit rose 5% YoY to $41.5M, achieving a 51% margin (up 1% YoY).
  • Adjusted EBITDA Turnaround:: Q3 adjusted EBITDA hit $5.6M (7% margin), with Q4 guidance targeting 15% margin (560 bps improvement YoY).
  • Money Transfer & Payments Growth:: Category revenue surged 100% in Q3, on track to nearly double 2025 annual revenue compared to 2024.
  • Free Cash Flow Strength:: Q3 free cash flow reached $13.4M, with 9-month total at $22.4M, exceeding $30M expected for 2025.

Revenue Growth and Category Expansion

The revenue growth was primarily driven by new business activity, with the company expecting to nearly double the absolute revenue dollars in the money transfer and payments category for full-year 2025 compared to last year. Eido Gal, Riskified's Co-Founder and CEO, mentioned that the company is making a concentrated effort to go after specific verticals that are a good fit for their product, which should drive further growth.

Margin Expansion and Operating Expenses

The company achieved a significant expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, reaching approximately 7% in Q3. Aglika Dotcheva, Riskified's CFO, expects a further step-up in Q4, with the adjusted EBITDA margin approximating 15%. Operating expenses are expected to remain relatively flat, with a quarterly non-GAAP operating expense of approximately $39 million in Q4. The company's ability to maintain relatively flat operating expenses while investing in growth initiatives is a positive sign.

Valuation and Outlook

Riskified's valuation metrics show a P/S Ratio of 2.17 and an EV/EBITDA of -11.21. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 9.4% for next year, which is slightly higher than the company's historical growth rate. With the company's strong performance in Q3 and the expected continued growth, the stock may be undervalued at current levels. However, investors should monitor the company's ability to achieve its margin expansion targets and continue to grow revenue.

3. NewsRoom

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Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public School Empls Retrmt SYS Grows Stock Position in Riskified Ltd. $RSKD

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bronte Capital Management Pty Ltd. Has $2.65 Million Holdings in Riskified Ltd. $RSKD

Nov -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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What Makes Riskified (RSKD) a New Buy Stock

Nov -17

Source: zacks.com

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Riskified Champions Fraud Prevention as a Leading Partner of International Fraud Awareness Week 2025

Nov -17

Source: businesswire.com

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Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Riskified (RSKD) Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -12

Source: zacks.com

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Riskified: Limited Downside Pending Growth Reacceleration

Oct -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Riskified Ltd. (NYSE:RSKD) Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Analysts

Oct -26

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.44%)

6. Segments

Fraud Review

Expected Growth: 10%

Riskified Ltd.'s Fraud Review growth is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, rising online fraud rates, and growing demand for AI-powered fraud detection solutions. The company's machine learning-based approach and real-time analytics capabilities have enabled it to capitalize on these trends, resulting in 10% growth.

Indemnification Guarantee

Expected Growth: 11%

Riskified Ltd.'s indemnification guarantee growth is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, rising demand for fraud protection, and expanding partnerships with major retailers. The 11% growth rate is also fueled by the company's AI-powered risk assessment technology, which provides accurate fraud detection and prevention, leading to increased customer trust and loyalty.

7. Detailed Products

Chargeback Guarantee

A product that protects merchants from chargebacks, allowing them to focus on growing their business without worrying about fraud-related losses.

Fraud Detection and Prevention

A solution that uses machine learning and data analysis to identify and prevent fraudulent transactions in real-time.

Policy Optimization

A product that helps merchants optimize their payment policies to reduce friction and increase revenue.

Account Protection

A solution that protects merchants from account takeover fraud and other types of account-related fraud.

Dispute Resolution

A product that helps merchants resolve disputes and chargebacks efficiently and effectively.

8. Riskified Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Riskified Ltd. operates in a niche market, providing fraud prevention and risk management solutions. While there are some substitutes available, they are not as comprehensive as Riskified's offerings, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Riskified Ltd.'s customers are primarily e-commerce companies, which have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of Riskified's services and the high switching costs.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Riskified Ltd. has a diversified supplier base, and the company's technology-driven business model reduces its dependence on suppliers, minimizing their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the growing demand for fraud prevention and risk management solutions, and the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the fraud prevention and risk management industry is moderate, with a few established players competing for market share, but Riskified Ltd.'s differentiated offerings and strong customer relationships help to mitigate the competitive pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.99%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 94.01%
Equity Cost 10.48%
WACC 10.09%
Leverage 6.37%

11. Quality Control: Riskified Ltd. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Accesso Technology Group

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Riskified

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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WalkMe

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 0.7

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MotorK

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 0.7

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Big Technologies

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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VTEX

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.91$

Current Price

4.91$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows