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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ING Groep N.V., a financial institution, provides various banking products and services in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Rest of Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, and Australia.It operates in six segments: Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium, Retail Germany, Retail Other, Wholesale Banking, and Corporate Line Banking.The company accepts various deposits, such as current and savings accounts; and offers business lending products, as well as consumer lending products, such as residential mortgage loans, term loans, and revolver and personal loans.


It also provides debt capital market, working capital, export finance, daily banking, treasury and risk, and corporate finance solutions; and specialized lending, equity market, finance, payments and cash management, and trade services and solutions, as well as savings, investment, insurance, mortgage, and digital banking services.The company serves customers, corporate clients, and financial institutions, including small and medium-sized, and mid-corporates.ING Groep N.V. was founded in 1762 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on INGA

ING Groep's recent performance has been driven by strong earnings momentum and capital strength. The company's upgraded fee growth forecast and large capital return to shareholders, including a €1.6 billion share buyback and special dividend, have contributed to its positive trend. Additionally, ING's renewed loan growth and enhanced fee income have been central to its stronger operating results. The company's ongoing share buyback program, with over 86% complete, also supports its capital management plans. Recent news indicates that investors are reassessing the company's valuation.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ING Group's Strong 2025 Performance and Promising Outlook

ING Group reported a robust financial performance in 2025, with total income reaching a record level for the third consecutive year. The bank's net profit was EUR 4.956 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.4726, beating analyst estimates of 0.4419. Revenue growth was driven by customer growth, loan growth, and fee income, with a 15% increase in fee income compared to 2024. The bank's return on equity (ROE) reached 13.2%, above the guidance provided at the start of the year.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Commercial Growth:: Added 1 million mobile primary customers, achieved EUR 10.1B net core lending growth in Retail Banking and EUR 10.3B in Wholesale Banking loans.
  • Fee Income Surge:: 15% growth in fee income (EUR 15.3B commercial NII), contributing 20% of total income with investment products showing strong performance.
  • Return on Equity:: ROE reached 13.2%, surpassing the initial guidance, with a 28% increase in sustainability volume to EUR 166B (up from 2024).
  • 2026-2027 Projections:: Total income targets of EUR 24B (2026) and EUR 25B+ (2027), with ROE and ROTCE above 15% driven by cost efficiencies and volume growth.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Cost-to-income ratio improved, 3% cost reduction planned for 2027, and AI/tech investments to enhance operational leverage and customer experience.

Revenue Growth Drivers

The commercial momentum drove ING's financial performance, with commercial net interest income (NII) remaining strong at EUR 15.3 billion. Fee income was also strong, increasing 15% compared to 2024 and accounting for 20% of total income. Investment products performed particularly well, with strong increases across all metrics. As Tanate Phutrakul, ING's CFO, highlighted, the bank's ability to deliver a strong quarter-end year was driven by its successful execution of its strategy, accelerating growth, increasing impact, and delivering value.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

ING's current valuation metrics indicate a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of 1.46, which is reasonable given the bank's strong financial performance. The dividend yield stands at 4.96%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. With a Net Interest Margin (NIM) expected to remain stable, ING's prospects for continued profitability are promising.

Outlook and Guidance

For 2026, ING expects total income of around EUR 24 billion, supported by continued volume growth and an anticipated 5% to 10% increase in fee income. The bank will continue to manage its CET1 capital ratio at a target of around 13% and transition from a return on equity metric to return on tangible equity. Looking ahead to 2027, ING expects total income to exceed EUR 25 billion, with a higher fee income outlook and a clear hard outlook for operating expenses.

3. NewsRoom

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Progress on share buyback programme

07:00

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German Bank ING Deutschland Opens Retail Access to Crypto-Linked ETNs

06:35

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The WSJ Dollar Index Rises 0.30% to 94.98

Feb -02

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Further Euro Strength Remains a Risk if Confidence in U.S. Is Shaken

Feb -02

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ING Comments on Euro, Czech Republic's Koruna

Feb -02

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BBVA Weighs Garanti Romania Sale As Valuation And Returns Draw Focus

Jan -31

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Will ING’s Upgraded Income Guidance and Rising Fee Mix Change ING Groep’s (ENXTAM:INGA) Narrative

Jan -30

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ING Sees "Decent" Growth in Canadian Economy But Says US Dollar Remain Main Drive for Loonie

Jan -30

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.44%)

6. Segments

Wholesale Banking

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Wholesale Banking's growth is driven by increasing demand for lending, transaction and market-related products among corporate and institutional clients, particularly in emerging markets, and its strategic expansion into Asia and Latin America.

Retail Banking Netherlands

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING's Retail Banking Netherlands benefits from increasing demand for digital banking services, a growing Dutch economy, and a strong market position, driving growth in its lending and payment services.

Retail Banking Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V.’s non-core retail banking activities are expected to grow driven by increasing adoption of digital banking, expanding geographic presence, and focus on innovation, leading to improved operational efficiency and enhanced customer experience.

Retail Banking Germany

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V.’s Retail Banking Germany is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, a low interest rate environment, and a strong brand presence in the German market.

Retail Banking Belgium

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V’s Retail Banking Belgium benefits from the country’s stable economy, growing demand for digital banking, and increasing adoption of mobile payments, driving growth in the personal banking segment.

Corporate Line

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for flexible credit solutions, increasing working capital and investment needs of businesses drive the growth of The Corporate Line from ING Groep N.V.

Unallocated EU 'IAS 39 Carve Out' Impact

Expected Growth: 5.3%

ING Groep N.V.'s unallocated EU IAS 39 carve-out impact, driven by unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities not attributed to specific business units, is expected to grow steadily.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

ING provides personal banking services to individuals, including current and savings accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.

Wholesale Banking

ING offers corporate banking services to large corporations, including cash management, trade finance, and lending.

Commercial Banking

ING provides banking services to small and medium-sized enterprises, including business loans, credit cards, and cash management.

Investment Management

ING offers investment management services to individuals and institutions, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and institutional mandates.

Insurance

ING provides life insurance, non-life insurance, and pension products to individuals and companies.

Wealth Management

ING offers wealth management services to high net worth individuals, including investment advice, portfolio management, and estate planning.

8. ING Groep N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

ING Groep N.V. operates in a highly competitive industry, and customers have various alternatives to choose from. However, the company's strong brand recognition and diversified product offerings mitigate the threat of substitutes to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

ING Groep N.V. has a large customer base, and individual customers have limited bargaining power. However, the company operates in a highly competitive industry, and customers can easily switch to competitors, giving them significant bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

ING Groep N.V. has a diversified supplier base, and no single supplier has significant bargaining power over the company. The company's large scale of operations also gives it negotiating power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The banking and financial services industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements. This limits the threat of new entrants and gives ING Groep N.V. a competitive advantage.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The banking and financial services industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. ING Groep N.V. faces intense competition from both traditional banks and fintech companies, which can erode its market share and profitability.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 81.63%
Debt Cost 12.08%
Equity Weight 18.37%
Equity Cost 12.08%
WACC 12.08%
Leverage 444.31%

11. Quality Control: ING Groep N.V. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
HSBC

A-Score: 7.6/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ING

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NatWest

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Barclays

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Handelsbanken

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
UBS

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.97$

Current Price

25.97$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows