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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

JDE Peet's N.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides various coffee and tea products and solutions to serve consumer needs worldwide.The company operates through CPG Europe, CPG LARMEA, CPG APAC, Out-of-Home, and Peet's segments.It offers multi-serve coffee, and single-serve and double-shot coffee capsules; and pads and pods, instant coffee, whole beans, ready-to-drink coffee beverages, various leaf and packaged tea, and professional tea products, as well as rents or sells professional solutions and complementary coffee systems.


The company sells its products under the Douwe Egberts, Kenco, Peet's, L'OR, Stumptown, TiOra, Gevalia, Pickwick, PILAO, Intelligentsia, Senseo, Jacobs, Moccona, Super, OldTown, Ofçay, Mighty Leaf Tea, and Tassimo brands through CPG and out-of-home sales channels.It operates 505 coffee stores under the Peet's, Intelligentsia, Stumptown, OldTown, and 12Oz brands in the United States, China, Malaysia, and Italy, as well as through webshops, and third-party e-tailers and e-commerce marketplaces.The company serves various businesses, such as hotels, hospitals, restaurants, cruise liners, and retirement homes, as well as distributors for distribution to the customer; and offices, universities, airports, and sports venues.


JDE Peet's N.V. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on JDEP

JDE Peet's N.V. has demonstrated strong performance driven by its solid half-year results, with organic sales up 22.5% and organic adjusted EBIT up 2.0%. The company's broad-based performance across top-line, profitability, and cash flow has led to a raised FY25 outlook. Additionally, JDE Peet's has unveiled a brand-led strategy to accelerate profitable growth, targeting €500M net productivity savings. The company has also been actively repurchasing shares, with recent buybacks including 247,873 shares at an average price of €26.03 per share.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. JDE Peet's Reports Strong H1 2025 Results, Raises Guidance

JDE Peet's reported organic sales growth of 22.5% in H1 2025, driven by pricing of 21.5%, with adjusted gross profit up 2.2% and adjusted EBIT up 2%. The company's free cash flow was solid at EUR 565 million, with 43% returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Underlying EPS increased by 3.4% to EUR 1.02, driven by better operational performance and foreign exchange gains. The company's net leverage was 2.5x, and it has completed 38% of its 2025 share buyback program.

Publication Date: Aug -01

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Organic Sales Growth: Organic sales increased by 22.5% in H1 2025, driven by pricing and volume mix.
  • Solid Free Cash Flow: Generated €565 million in free cash flow, with €172 million returned via dividends and €71 million through share buybacks.
  • Inflation Mitigation: Successfully offset inflation through pricing, efficiencies, and productivities despite high green coffee prices.
  • Strategic Progress: Made significant progress on 5 key priorities, including pricing discipline and strategic assessments.
  • Raised Full-Year Guidance: Updated full-year guidance expecting high teens organic sales growth and stable adjusted EBIT.

Segment Performance

The Europe segment reported an 8.6% organic increase in adjusted EBIT, driven by an increase in gross profit and A&P spend. LARMEA saw a 19.2% organic increase in adjusted EBIT, mainly reflecting an increase in gross profit, productivities, and stable A&P spend. Peet's adjusted EBIT decreased organically by 37.6%, due to a high base of comparison related to a one-off EUR 16 million insurance payout benefit and a decrease in gross profit. APAC's adjusted EBIT decreased organically by 14.7%, mainly reflecting phasing of productivities and the interplay of inflation and pricing.

Operational Highlights

The company has made progress on its 5 key priorities for 2025, including pricing discipline, identifying and delivering additional efficiencies, and strategic assessment. JDE Peet's has a clear brand-led strategy, focusing on 3 big bets: Peet's, L'OR, and 10 iconic brands led by Jacobs. The company has launched new products, such as Peet's Popping Pearls and L'OR Coconut Iced Espresso, which are expected to have a material impact on the P&L in 1-2 years.

Tariffs and Sourcing

Regarding tariffs, Rafael de Oliveira mentioned that the company imports green coffee beans, mainly from Brazil, which will be subject to a 50% tariff starting August 1. This will affect the industry, but the company believes it is better positioned due to its smaller reliance on Brazilian coffee. Changing sourcing won't be easy due to Brazil's significant production of coffee globally.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E ratio of 22.19 and a dividend yield of 2.82%, the stock appears to be trading at a premium. However, the company's strong free cash flow generation and ROIC of 3.93% suggest that it may be well-positioned for long-term growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.2%, and the actual EPS came out at EUR 1.33, relative to estimates at EUR 0.845. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio of 11.22 and P/B ratio of 1.12 also suggest that the stock may be fairly valued.

3. NewsRoom

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JDE Peet’s prices EUR 600 million senior unsecured notes issue

Dec -04

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CFOs On the Move: Week ending Nov. 26

Nov -26

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Keurig Dr Pepper replaces CFO ahead of JDE Peet’s acquisition

Nov -25

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Peet’s Coffee CEO Eric Lauterbach exits company ahead of Keurig-Dr. Pepper acquisition

Nov -17

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Why Analysts Are Split as Keurig Dr Pepper’s Story Evolves After JDE Peet’s Merger News

Nov -15

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Jefferies Remains Positive on Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Sees Investor Confidence Returning

Nov -10

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Keurig Dr Pepper eyes $200M in supply chain savings from spinoff

Nov -07

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Morgan Stanley, Houlihan Lokey top consumer M&A adviser charts – data

Nov -04

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (0.98%)

6. Segments

Europe

Expected Growth: 0.8%

JDE Peet's N.V.'s 0.8% growth in Europe is driven by increasing coffee consumption, particularly among younger demographics, and a growing demand for premium and specialty coffee. Additionally, the company's strong brand presence, efficient supply chain, and strategic partnerships contribute to its steady growth in the region.

Latin America, Russia, Middle East and Africa

Expected Growth: 1.2%

{'Latin America': 'Growing coffee culture, increasing disposable income, and expanding distribution channels drive 1.2% growth.', 'Russia': 'Rising demand for premium coffee, growing foodservice industry, and strategic partnerships fuel 1.2% growth.', 'Middle East': 'Increasing coffee consumption, urbanization, and tourism growth contribute to 1.2% growth.', 'Africa': 'Expanding middle class, growing demand for coffee, and investments in coffee production drive 1.2% growth.'}

Peet's

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Peet's coffee shops expansion in Asia, increasing demand for premium coffee, and growing online sales contribute to 1.5% growth. Additionally, JDE Peet's N.V.'s strategic partnerships, innovative products, and loyalty programs drive sales. The company's focus on sustainability and digital transformation also attract environmentally conscious and tech-savvy consumers, further boosting growth.

APAC

Expected Growth: 0.9%

APAC growth of 0.9% from JDE Peet's N.V. is driven by increasing coffee consumption in China and India, expansion of coffee shops in key cities, and a growing middle class with rising disposable income. Additionally, the region's large youth population and urbanization trends contribute to the growth.

Unallocated

Expected Growth: 0.7%

JDE Peet's N.V. unallocated segment growth of 0.7 is driven by increasing coffee consumption, expanding distribution channels, and strategic pricing. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability, digital transformation, and cost savings initiatives contribute to its growth. These factors enable JDE Peet's to maintain its market share and drive revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Coffee Beans

High-quality Arabica and Robusta coffee beans sourced from around the world

Espresso Machines

Commercial-grade espresso machines designed for high-volume use

Coffee Machines

Automatic and manual coffee machines for brewing coffee

Tea and Other Beverages

A selection of tea, chocolate, and other specialty beverages

Coffee Shop Equipment

Equipment and supplies for coffee shops, including grinders, brewers, and accessories

Office Coffee Solutions

Coffee machines and services designed for the office environment

Vending Machines

Coffee and snack vending machines for offices, factories, and other locations

Coffee Shop Design and Build

Custom design and build services for coffee shops and cafes

8. JDE Peet's N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

JDE Peet's N.V. faces moderate threat from substitutes as coffee consumption is increasing globally, but the company's strong brand presence and quality products help to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

JDE Peet's N.V. has a large customer base, but individual customers do not have significant bargaining power due to the company's strong brand presence and diversified product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

JDE Peet's N.V. faces moderate bargaining power from suppliers, particularly coffee bean suppliers, due to the company's dependence on high-quality coffee beans and the concentration of suppliers in certain regions.

Threat Of New Entrants

JDE Peet's N.V. faces low threat from new entrants due to the company's strong brand presence, established distribution networks, and high barriers to entry in the coffee industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

JDE Peet's N.V. operates in a highly competitive coffee industry, with intense rivalry among established players, which can lead to pricing pressures and advertising wars.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.88%
Debt Cost 4.24%
Equity Weight 66.12%
Equity Cost 5.14%
WACC 4.83%
Leverage 51.24%

11. Quality Control: JDE Peet's N.V. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

31.64$

Current Price

31.64$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows