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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Davide Campari-Milano N.V., together with its subsidiaries, markets and distributes alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific.It offers range of spirits categories, including aperitif, vodka, liqueurs, bitters, whisky, tequila, rum, gin, and cognac, as well as champagne and non-alcoholic aperitif under various brands, such as Aperol, Campari, SKYY, Wild Turkey, Grand Marnier, Appleton Estate, Wray & Nephew Overproof, and other brands.The company was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Sesto San Giovanni, Italy.


Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is a subsidiary of Lagfin S.C.A., Société en Commandite par Actions.

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1.b. Last Insights on CPR

Davide Campari-Milano N.V.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by market volatility, with investors reassessing their positions. The company's share price drop was notable, with a significant decline over the past year. However, the Italian distiller reported stronger earnings, with sales rising 4.4% for the quarter, as consumers continued to favor its products despite economic woes and trade disputes. This positive earnings release may help alleviate concerns, but the company's ability to sustain growth amidst market uncertainty remains a key concern.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Campari's 9M 2025 Results: Resilient Performance Amidst Challenging Environment

Campari Group reported a resilient performance in the first 9 months of 2025, with organic growth of 1.5% and Q3 growth at 4.4%. The company's reported top-line growth was 0.2%, with a perimeter impact of 1.1% and FX impact of -2.4%. The EPS came in at €0.1635, slightly above estimates of €0.16. The EBITDA adjusted margin remained flat, supported by gross margin accretion and cost containment benefits. The gross margin increased by 90 basis points, driven by a positive mix and benefits from input costs.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Organic Growth and Regional Performance: 1.5% organic growth (Q3: 4.4%), with Americas up 1%, EMEA 2%, and APAC 5%.
  • Aperol Expansion and Brand Resilience: Double-digit growth in 10+ countries representing 12% of Aperol sales, driven by Sarti Rosa and Aperol Spritz.
  • Gross Margin and Cost Efficiency: 90 bps gross margin improvement, flat EBITDA margin, and SG&A efficiency targets (50 bps benefit in 2025, 200 bps by 2027).
  • Strategic Brand Investments: Espolòn media impressions up 28%, and $12M allocated to Wild Turkey's 2025-2026 campaign as its largest-ever investment.
  • Debt Management and Tariff Mitigation: Net debt-to-EBITDA down 0.7x to 2.9x, with €136M debt reduction and €37M tariff impact expected in 2026.

Regional Performance

The company delivered growth across all regions: Americas grew by 1%, EMEA by 2%, and APAC by 5%. The House of Aperitifs recorded resilient growth of 1%, driven by Sarti Rosa and Aperol Spritz. Aperol's geographic expansion is on track, with over 10 countries representing 12% of the brand's total sales delivering double-digit growth.

Brand Performance and Investments

The company's key brands performed well, with Espolòn tequila media impressions increasing by more than 28% compared to last year. The new Wild Turkey campaign, launched in September, represents the brand's largest ever investment, with a media spend planned up to $12 million through 2026. The company's brand building investments continue, with a focus on commercial execution and investing behind brands.

Cost Containment and Margin Profile

The company's cost containment efforts are on track, with a declining trend in SG&A growth, and a target of 50 bps benefit on sales in 2025 and 200 bps benefit by the end of '27. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio decreased by 0.7x to 2.9x. With an EV/EBITDA ratio of 16.66 and a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 4.01, the company's valuation appears to be pricing in a certain level of growth.

Outlook and Guidance

The company maintains its guidance of moderate organic growth on the top line and flattish organic EBIT-adjusted margin as a percentage of net sales. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.2%. The company expects a step up in growth in 2026, but visibility is low. With a P/E Ratio of 37.65 and a P/S Ratio of 2.31, the company's valuation appears to be pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability.

Strategic Priorities

The company made solid progress across strategic priorities, including portfolio streamlining and SG&A efficiency. The company's Strategy Day will take place on November 6th and 7th in Milan, where it will provide more details on its medium-term outlook and plans to drive growth and profitability.

3. NewsRoom

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Campari Books Stronger Earnings as Drinkers Shrug off Economic Woes, Trade Disputes

Oct -29

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Should Investors Reassess Campari After Its 27% Share Price Drop Amid Market Volatility?

Sep -13

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Europe Expects Spirits, Wine to Be Hit With 15% Tariff on Friday

Jul -31

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Main Campari shareholder backs acquisitive PE group Bluegem

Jun -20

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The Weekly Sip: Red Hot Chili Peppers singer enters coffee | Aperol owner Campari debuts nonalcoholic spritz

May -15

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Campari returns to Festival De Cannes with Mads Mikkelsen to celebrate passion, creativity and cinema

May -12

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Stocks to Watch Friday: Expedia, Pinterest, Coinbase

May -09

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Davide Campari-Milano NV (DVDCF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with ...

May -09

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.51%)

6. Segments

Global Priority Brands - Aperol

Expected Growth: 9%

Aperol's 9% growth is driven by increasing popularity in the US and Asia, premiumization trend, and successful marketing campaigns. The brand's unique bitter-sweet flavor profile and Instagram-worthy Spritz serve appeal to a younger demographic. Expansion in the on-trade channel, particularly in trendy bars and restaurants, also contributes to its growth.

Global Priority Brands - Campari

Expected Growth: 8%

Campari's 8% growth is driven by its strong brand portfolio, particularly Aperol and Campari, which benefit from the growing popularity of the Spritz cocktail trend. Expansion in high-growth markets, such as the US and Asia, and strategic acquisitions also contribute to the company's growth momentum.

Rest of the Portfolio

Expected Growth: 6%

Campari's Rest of the Portfolio, with 6% growth, is driven by premiumization, innovation, and geographic expansion. Strong performances from Aperol, Campari, and SKYY vodka, as well as growth in key markets like the US, Brazil, and Russia, contribute to this growth. Additionally, the company's focus on digital marketing and e-commerce also supports sales.

Regional Priority Brands - Espolon

Expected Growth: 7%

Espolon's 7% growth is driven by increasing popularity in the US, particularly among millennials, and a growing demand for premium tequila. Strategic marketing campaigns, expanded distribution channels, and a strong online presence have also contributed to the brand's success. Additionally, Campari's investment in digital marketing and e-commerce platforms has helped to increase brand awareness and drive sales.

Global Priority Brands - Wild Turkey Portfolio

Expected Growth: 8%

Wild Turkey's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for premium bourbon, successful marketing campaigns, and strategic distribution expansion in key markets. Additionally, the brand's heritage and craftsmanship appeal to millennials, while its flavor profile resonates with consumers seeking unique whiskey experiences.

Global Priority Brands - Jamaican Rums Portfolio

Expected Growth: 8%

Strong brand recognition, increasing demand for premium rum, strategic distribution partnerships, and effective marketing campaigns drive growth for Global Priority Brands - Jamaican Rums Portfolio. Additionally, Campari's expertise in spirits and expanding presence in key markets contribute to the 8% growth rate.

Regional Priority Brands - Sparkling Wines & Vermouth

Expected Growth: 5%

Regional Priority Brands, Sparkling Wines & Vermouth from Davide Campari-Milano N.V. achieved 5% growth driven by premiumization, increasing demand for craft and artisanal products, and strategic expansion into new markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America, where there is growing appreciation for Italian luxury goods.

Global Priority Brands - Grand Marnier

Expected Growth: 7%

Grand Marnier's 7% growth is driven by premiumization, increasing demand for craft cocktails, and expansion in key markets such as the US and Asia. The brand's rich heritage, high-quality ingredients, and versatility in mixology also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Campari's strategic marketing efforts and distribution network have helped to increase brand visibility and availability.

Global Priority Brands - SKYY

Expected Growth: 9%

SKYY's 9% growth is driven by increasing popularity in the US, expansion in international markets, and a strong brand reputation. Premiumization and innovation in flavors also contribute to growth. Effective marketing campaigns and strategic partnerships further boost sales. Additionally, the brand's presence in high-growth channels such as e-commerce and travel retail supports its upward trend.

Regional Priority Brands - Other

Expected Growth: 6%

Regional Priority Brands - Other from Davide Campari-Milano N.V. growth driven by increasing demand for craft spirits, premiumization, and geographic expansion in high-growth markets, such as Asia and Latin America, as well as successful brand renovation and innovation efforts.

Regional Priority Brands - Italian Specialties

Expected Growth: 7%

Strong brand recognition, increasing demand for premiumization, and strategic expansion in key markets drive growth for Regional Priority Brands - Italian Specialties from Davide Campari-Milano N.V. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, effective marketing, and distribution strategies contribute to its 7% growth.

Local Priority Brands - Campari Soda

Expected Growth: 5%

Campari Soda's 5% growth is driven by increasing popularity among younger generations, expansion in emerging markets, and premiumization trend. The brand's Italian heritage and unique bitter-sweet taste profile also contribute to its appeal. Additionally, the company's strategic marketing efforts, including influencer partnerships and limited-edition releases, have helped to revitalize the brand's image and attract new consumers.

Regional Priority Brands - Crodino

Expected Growth: 6%

Crodino's 6% growth is driven by increasing popularity in Italy, successful expansion in Germany and Austria, and a strong online presence. The brand's unique bitter flavor profile and refreshing taste appeal to health-conscious consumers seeking low-calorie, low-alcohol beverages. Effective marketing campaigns and strategic partnerships with influencers and distributors also contribute to its growth.

Local Priority Brands - Other

Expected Growth: 5%

Campari's Local Priority Brands - Other segment growth is driven by increasing demand for premium and craft spirits, particularly in the US and Europe. Strong brand recognition, innovative marketing, and strategic distribution partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and e-commerce expansion helps to reach a wider customer base, further boosting sales.

Regional Priority Brands - Magnum Tonic

Expected Growth: 7%

Magnum Tonic's 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for premiumization, expansion in emerging markets, and successful marketing campaigns. The brand's strong presence in key regions, such as Latin America and Asia, also contributes to its growth. Additionally, the trend towards low-and-no-alcohol beverages and the increasing popularity of at-home consumption further support Magnum Tonic's growth.

Local Priority Brands - Wild Turkey Portfolio Ready-to-Drink

Expected Growth: 8%

Wild Turkey Portfolio's 8% growth is driven by increasing popularity of ready-to-drink beverages, particularly among younger demographics. Strong brand recognition, innovative flavor profiles, and strategic marketing efforts contribute to its success. Additionally, the growing demand for convenient, portable drinks and the expansion of e-commerce channels also support the brand's growth.

Local Priority Brands - SKYY Ready-to-Drink

Expected Growth: 9%

SKYY Ready-to-Drink's 9% growth is driven by increasing popularity among millennials, expansion into new markets, and strategic marketing campaigns. The brand's premium positioning, unique flavor profiles, and convenient packaging also contribute to its success. Additionally, Campari's strong distribution network and partnerships with major retailers have increased product visibility and availability.

Regional Priority Brands - Aperol Spritz Ready-to-Enjoy

Expected Growth: 8%

Aperol Spritz Ready-to-Enjoy's 8% growth is driven by increasing popularity of at-home cocktail experiences, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships with influencers and events. Additionally, the brand's premiumization and innovative packaging, such as the 'Spritz Bag', have contributed to its success.

Regional Priority Brands - The GlenGrant

Expected Growth: 7%

The GlenGrant's 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for premium Scotch whisky, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Effective marketing campaigns, expanded distribution channels, and strategic partnerships have also contributed to the brand's success. Additionally, the rising popularity of whisky-based cocktails and the growing interest in craft spirits have further boosted sales.

Local Priority Brands - X-Rated

Expected Growth: 6%

X-Rated's 6% growth is driven by increasing popularity among younger demographics, successful marketing campaigns, and strategic partnerships with influencers and events. Additionally, the brand's premiumization efforts, expansion into new markets, and effective distribution channels have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Aperol

Aperol is a popular Italian bitter liqueur, flavored with a secret blend of herbs and roots, typically served as an apéritif

Campari

Campari is a bitter, sweet, and sour Italian liqueur, flavored with a secret blend of herbs, roots, and fruit, typically served as an apéritif

SKYY Vodka

SKYY Vodka is a premium, quadruple-distilled vodka, made from wheat and filtered through diamond-studded filters, offering a crisp, clean taste

Wild Turkey

Wild Turkey is a premium bourbon whiskey, made from a high-rye mash bill, offering a rich, full-bodied flavor profile

Grand Marnier

Grand Marnier is a French liqueur, made from a blend of cognac, bitter orange, and sugar, offering a rich, citrusy flavor

8. Davide Campari-Milano N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is medium, as there are some alternatives to their products, but they are not easily substitutable. The company's strong brand portfolio and product differentiation help to mitigate the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is low, as the company has a diverse customer base and no single customer has significant bargaining power. The company's strong brand portfolio and product differentiation also help to reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is medium, as the company relies on a few large suppliers for some of its raw materials. However, the company's strong relationships with its suppliers and its ability to negotiate prices help to mitigate the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is low, as the company has a strong brand portfolio and a significant market presence. The company's high barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, also make it difficult for new entrants to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is high, as the company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players. The company's strong brand portfolio and product differentiation help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry, but the company still faces significant competition from other players in the industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.86%
Debt Cost 4.38%
Equity Weight 57.14%
Equity Cost 6.64%
WACC 5.67%
Leverage 75.00%

11. Quality Control: Davide Campari-Milano N.V. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Jerónimo Martins

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Anora

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Tate Lyle

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Glanbia

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Remy Cointreau

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Campari

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.85$

Current Price

5.85$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows