Orange Polska S.A. (OPL.WA) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Poland.It offers mobile and fixed telecommunications services, including calls, messaging, content, and access to the Internet and TV; information and communications technology, leased lines, and other value-added telecommunication services; and data transmission services.The company also sells telecommunications equipment and electrical energy; constructs telecommunications infrastructure; and provides financial services.

In addition, it is involved in the development, management, and maintenance of networks; provision of training, hotel, insurance agent, and charity foundation services, as well as manages employee pension funds; point of sale rental; and monitoring of alarm signals.The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.Orange Polska S.A. is a subsidiary of Orange S.A.

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1.b. Last Insights on OPL

Orange Polska S.A.'s recent strength is driven by its attractive dividend yield, which has become increasingly appealing in a volatile European market. The company's solid Q4 2023 earnings, with a 4.3% year-over-year revenue growth, have likely boosted investor confidence. Additionally, Orange Polska's efforts to reduce debt and improve operational efficiency have been well-received by analysts, with Credit Suisse upgrading the stock to "Outperform" in January.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	9.6
Change Percentage	-1.13%
Open	9.65
Previous Close	9.71
Market Cap ( Millions)	12599
Volume	881042
Year High	9.99
Year Low	7.04
M A 50	9.1
M A 200	9.13

FCF Yield	6.79%
Dividend Yield	5.52%
ROE	6.80%
Debt / Equity	55.94%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	167.92%
Price To Book	0.95
Price Earnings Ratio	13.69
Price To FCF	14.74
Price To sales	0.98
EV / EBITDA	4.8

2. Orange Polska's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Orange Polska reported a robust Q3 2025, with revenues increasing 9.3% year-over-year, driven by commercial growth, particularly in the consumer market. EBITDA grew almost 3% year-over-year, reflecting a solid expansion of the core business and cost discipline. The company's EPS came in at 0.2058, significantly beating estimates of 0.09. eCapEx stood at PLN 1.1 billion year-to-date, in line with full-year plans, and the company generated nearly PLN 670 million of organic cash flow year-to-date.

Publication Date: Oct -26

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Growth::
                                                Q3 2025 revenues rose 9.3% YoY, driven by IT&IS sales spikes and strong core telecom services.
EBITDA Expansion::
                                                EBITDA grew nearly 3% YoY, supported by cost discipline and core business expansion.
Mobile Customer Growth::
                                                Net additions exceeded 100,000, the highest in over 4 years, with Mobile ARPO up.
Capital Efficiency::
                                                eCapEx reached PLN 1.1 billion YTD (in line with plans), and organic cash flow hit PLN 670 million YTD.
Wholesale Momentum::
                                                Accelerated growth in fiber backhaul and high-margin wholesale activity expected to boost 2026 DPS by monetizing existing infrastructure.

                                

Segmental Performance

The Mobile business saw net customer additions exceed 100,000, the highest in over 4 years, with Mobile ARPO increasing. Convergence and fiber growth was solid, with a 5% and 13% growth in customer bases and a 3-4% uplift in average revenue per offer. The B2B segment was under pressure, but the company sees initial signs of recovery.

Wholesale Business Growth

Wholesale growth accelerated due to new fiber optics backhaul business, expected to generate more value over the next few years. A new wholesale deal contributed significantly to margin creation, with the peak of value expected in the next 4 years. Wholesale margins are high, especially when monetizing existing infrastructure, and cash conversion ratios are also high.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 13.15 and a Dividend Yield of 5.75%, the stock appears reasonably valued. The company's confidence in delivering on its 2025 objectives and creating further shareholder value is supported by its strong operating performance. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.6%, and the company's focus on IT&IS revenues and margins is expected to drive long-term growth. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.67 suggests a relatively attractive valuation compared to its earnings.

Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure

The company is stable in terms of organic cash flow after 3 quarters, with a strong operating performance. The main uncertainty is real estate sales in Q4, but the company is confident about posting a good result. eCapEx was PLN 1.1 billion year-to-date, in line with full-year plans.

3. NewsRoom

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.98%)

6. Segments

Mobile Only Services

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Mobile Only Services growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing mobile penetration in Poland, rising demand for data-intensive services, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the company's focus on network quality and expansion of 4G and 5G coverage has attracted more customers, contributing to the growth.

Convergent Services (Consumer Market)

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Convergent Services in the Consumer Market grew 2.2% driven by increasing demand for bundled services, expansion of 4G and fiber-optic networks, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the rise of streaming services and online content consumption fueled growth in data and digital services.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Orange Polska S.A.'s equipment segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and digital services, government initiatives for digital infrastructure development, and growing adoption of IoT devices. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in network modernization and expansion of its fiber-optic infrastructure are contributing to the growth.

Information Technology and Integration Services

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Orange Polska S.A.'s 3.0% growth in Information Technology and Integration Services is driven by increasing demand for digital transformation, cloud adoption, and cybersecurity solutions among Polish enterprises. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, investments in 5G and IoT, and expansion of its data center capabilities are contributing to its growth momentum.

Wholesale - Mobile

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Wholesale - Mobile segment growth of 1.9% is driven by increasing demand for mobile data services, expansion of 4G and 5G network coverage, and growing adoption of IoT solutions among enterprises. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and partnerships with major technology companies contribute to the segment's growth.

Fixed Only Services - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.1%

The 2.1% growth in Fixed Only Services - Broadband from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet, government initiatives to expand broadband infrastructure, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the growing popularity of online streaming services and remote work have boosted demand for reliable and fast broadband connections.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Orange Polska S.A.'s 'Other' segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of IT and cybersecurity offerings, and growing sales of energy and utilities services. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation and investments in new technologies, such as IoT and AI, contribute to the segment's growth.

Fixed Only Services - Narrowband

Expected Growth: 0.8%

The 0.8% growth in Fixed Only Services - Narrowband from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for stable and secure internet connectivity, particularly among rural and underserved areas, as well as the need for low-cost, low-bandwidth connectivity solutions for IoT devices and basic online activities.

Wholesale - Other

Expected Growth: 1.6%

The 1.6% growth in Wholesale - Other from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for data services, expansion of 5G network, and growing partnerships with content providers. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and cost optimization initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Fixed Only Services - Network Solutions (Business Market)

Expected Growth: 2.5%

The 2.5% growth in Fixed Only Services - Network Solutions for the business market at Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for reliable and secure connectivity, adoption of cloud-based services, and growing need for digital transformation among Polish businesses. Additionally, investments in fiber-optic infrastructure and competitive pricing strategies contribute to this growth.

Wholesale - Fixed

Expected Growth: 2.3%

The 2.3% growth in Wholesale - Fixed from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services, coupled with the company's investments in fiber-optic infrastructure and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the growing need for reliable and secure connectivity among businesses and government institutions contributes to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Telephony

Orange Polska offers mobile telephony services, providing customers with access to voice, data, and multimedia services on the go.

Fixed-Line Telephony

Orange Polska provides fixed-line telephony services, offering customers a reliable and high-quality voice communication solution.

Broadband Internet

Orange Polska offers high-speed broadband internet services, enabling customers to access the internet, stream content, and use online applications.

TV Services

Orange Polska provides TV services, offering customers a range of channels, on-demand content, and interactive features.

ICT Services

Orange Polska offers ICT (Information and Communications Technology) services, providing businesses with customized IT solutions and infrastructure.

Cybersecurity Services

Orange Polska provides cybersecurity services, protecting customers from cyber threats and ensuring the security of their digital assets.

Data Center Services

Orange Polska offers data center services, providing customers with secure, reliable, and scalable infrastructure for their data storage needs.

8. Orange Polska S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Orange Polska S.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative telecommunications services such as mobile operators and internet service providers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Orange Polska S.A. is low due to the lack of switching options and the company's strong market position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Orange Polska S.A. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's dependence on them for network equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Orange Polska S.A. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the telecommunications industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Orange Polska S.A. is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the Polish telecommunications market, including Play, T-Mobile, and Plus.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	34.73%
Debt Cost	4.98%
Equity Weight	65.27%
Equity Cost	6.47%
WACC	5.95%
Leverage	53.21%

11. Quality Control: Orange Polska S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Telenor

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Proximus

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Telekom Austria

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Orange Polska

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

KPN

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Tele2

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-2.26%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

5.95%

Orange Polska S.A. - PLTLKPL00017

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on OPL

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Less Volatile

Fairly Valued

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

Average Quality

Average Yield

Stable Momentum

Weak Momentum

Strong Momentum

Revenues Beats

2. Orange Polska's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Segmental Performance

Wholesale Business Growth

Valuation and Outlook

Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.98%)

6. Segments

Mobile Only Services

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Convergent Services (Consumer Market)

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Information Technology and Integration Services

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Wholesale - Mobile

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Fixed Only Services - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Fixed Only Services - Narrowband

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Wholesale - Other

Expected Growth: 1.6%

Fixed Only Services - Network Solutions (Business Market)

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Wholesale - Fixed

Expected Growth: 2.3%

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Telephony

Fixed-Line Telephony

Broadband Internet

TV Services

ICT Services

Cybersecurity Services

Data Center Services

8. Orange Polska S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Orange Polska S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA