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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants.As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area.The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "ADC".

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1.b. Last Insights on ADC

Negative drivers behind Agree Realty Corporation's recent stock performance include a premium valuation, limiting upside potential. Despite a strong dividend yield and share price recovery, the company's current valuation is high compared to peers. Additionally, the recent $100 million private placement by ADC Therapeutics, a different company, may have negatively impacted investor sentiment, as it may be perceived as a distraction or a sign of market uncertainty.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Agree Realty's Q4 2025 Earnings: Strong Execution and Growth

Agree Realty reported a strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with AFFO per share growth of 4.5% and investment activity of $1.55 billion, representing a 60% year-over-year increase. The company's EPS came in at $1.11, beating estimates of $1.1. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating an 11.1% increase in revenues for the next year. The company's guidance for 2026 AFFO per share is $4.54 to $4.58, representing a 5.4% year-over-year growth.

Publication Date: Feb -15

📋 Highlights

Investment Activity and Portfolio Performance

The company's investment activity was robust in Q4 2025, with $377 million invested in 94 high-quality retail net leased properties. The acquired properties had a weighted average cap rate of 7.1% and a weighted average lease term of 9.6 years. Investment-grade retailers accounted for nearly two-thirds of the annualized base rent acquired. The company's development and DFP platforms had a record year, with 34 projects either completed or under construction, representing approximately $225 million of committed capital.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Agree Realty's balance sheet is in a strong position, with pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA standing at 3.8 times. The company has significant liquidity, with over $2 billion available, including over $715 million of outstanding forward equity. The company's debt profile is manageable, with no material debt maturities in the near term.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Using the company's current valuation metrics, we can assess what's priced in. The P/E Ratio is 45.05, indicating a relatively high valuation. However, the company's growth prospects, including its strong investment activity and development pipeline, may justify this premium. The Dividend Yield is 3.96%, providing a relatively attractive income stream. With an ROE of 3.39% and an ROIC of 29.64%, the company is generating strong returns on its investments.

Outlook and Conclusion

Agree Realty's strong execution and growth prospects position the company for continued success. With a robust investment pipeline and a strong balance sheet, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the retail net lease space. As the company continues to grow and expand its portfolio, investors can expect to benefit from its strong growth prospects and attractive dividend yield.

3. NewsRoom

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Increases Stake in Agree Realty Corporation $ADC

Feb -14

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2 Triple Net Lease REITs Set To Gain As Interest Rates Tick Lower

Feb -12

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Retirees Rely On These 5 Safe High-Yield Monthly Pay Dividend Stocks

Feb -12

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Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -11

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Akari Therapeutics Participates in Virtual Investor “What This Means” Interview Discussing the Company's Expanded ADC Pipeline

Feb -11

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Agree Realty (ADC) Q4 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Feb -11

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Agree Realty (ADC) Q4 FFO and Revenues Top Estimates

Feb -10

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Agree Realty Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

Feb -10

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.50%)

6. Segments

Rental Income

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Rental income from Agree Realty Corporation is driven by increasing demand for net lease retail properties, particularly in the United States. Growing e-commerce and omnichannel retailing are fueling demand for logistics and distribution centers, while the rise of experiential retail is boosting demand for retail spaces.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Agree Realty's non-core operations, including investments and miscellaneous items, are expected to grow steadily driven by increasing diversification of revenue streams, strategic investments, and opportunistic acquisitions.

7. Detailed Products

Net Lease Properties

Agree Realty Corporation acquires and develops single-tenant net lease properties, primarily in the retail sector, providing a steady income stream to investors.

Retail Properties

The company owns and operates a portfolio of retail properties, including shopping centers, strip centers, and freestanding stores, generating rental income.

Development and Redevelopment Services

Agree Realty Corporation offers development and redevelopment services, transforming underutilized properties into thriving retail destinations.

Acquisition and Disposition Services

The company provides acquisition and disposition services, facilitating the buying and selling of net lease properties and retail assets.

8. Agree Realty Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Agree Realty Corporation is moderate, as there are alternative options for investors seeking real estate investment trusts (REITs) with similar investment objectives.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low, as Agree Realty Corporation's properties are diversified across various industries and tenants, reducing dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low, as Agree Realty Corporation has a diversified portfolio of properties, reducing reliance on a single supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high, as the REIT industry is relatively easy to enter, and new companies can easily raise capital to invest in real estate.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is moderate, as Agree Realty Corporation operates in a competitive industry with several established players, but has a diversified portfolio and a strong management team to mitigate the impact of competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 31.68%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 68.32%
Equity Cost 6.57%
WACC 5.74%
Leverage 46.37%

11. Quality Control: Agree Realty Corporation passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Brixmor Property Group

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Kite Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Regency Centers

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Agree Realty

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Tanger Factory Outlet

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Kimco Realty

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

78.08$

Current Price

78.08$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows