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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alexander's, Inc.is a real estate investment trust which has seven properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALX

Alexander's, Inc. recent performance was driven by strong Q4 2024 earnings, with FFO exceeding estimates at $4.06 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.71 per share. The company also declared a regular quarterly dividend of $4.50 per share, which is a positive indicator for investors. Additionally, the upcoming R&D Day webcast on March 5, 2025, is expected to provide updates on the company's clinical development program, including the introduction of clinical trials in breast and colorectal cancers, which could further boost investor confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vornado Realty Trust's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Report

Vornado Realty Trust reported a strong fourth quarter 2024, with comparable FFO per share of $2.26, down from 2023 due to lower NOI from move-outs and higher net interest expense. However, the results were better than expected, primarily due to the acceleration of leasing activity at 330 West 34th Street. Net interest expense ended up being lower than projected due to short-term rates coming down. "We're at the bottom of a cycle, and cash flow will increase as the market gets tighter, particularly in New York," said Steven Roth, Chairman and CEO.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • Leasing Activity: Vornado leased 3.34 million square feet overall, with 2.65 million square feet being New York office at market-leading $104 starting rents, completing 18 premium deals in New York and 25 retail leases totaling 187,000 square feet.
  • Portfolio Performance: Comparable FFO was $2.26 per share for the year, down from 2023 due to lower NOI from move-outs and higher net interest expense, but better than expected due to accelerated leasing activity at 330 West 34th Street.
  • Guidance: Expect 2025 to be slightly lower than 2024, partly due to lease termination income at 330 West 34th Street and the GAAP earnings impact of backfilling vacancies and lease-up of Penn One and Penn Two, but significant earnings growth is expected by 2027.
  • Penn District: Expect to generate at least a billion dollars in cash proceeds from 2025 transactions, with strong demand for anchor space driven by financial, legal, and tech industries, and potential for significant appreciation in income and value creation.
  • Acquisitions and Development: Considering all options for the 1015 site, including apartments, and expect to announce plans soon, with a focus on deleveraging and stabilizing or decreasing interest expenses this year.

Strong Leasing Activity

The company leased 3.34 million square feet overall, with 2.65 million square feet being New York office at market-leading $104 starting rents. Vornado completed 18 premium deals in New York, including three of the top ten largest office deals, and 25 retail leases totaling 187,000 square feet. The company's portfolio is 100% LEED certified, making it the first REIT to achieve this milestone.

Outlook and Guidance

Vornado expects 2025 to be slightly lower than 2024, partly due to the lease termination income at 330 West 34th Street and the GAAP earnings impact of the backfilling of vacancies and the lease-up of Penn One and Penn Two. However, this will result in significant earnings growth by 2027. The company anticipates NOI growth of $150 million at its Penn Plaza District assets, with potential for more as the market continues to strengthen.

Valuation

With a current PE ratio of 24.2 and a price-to-sales ratio of 4.62, Vornado's stock appears to be fairly valued. The company's dividend yield of 6.59% and free cash flow yield of 5.17% also suggest that the market is pricing in a moderate growth outlook. However, with a strong pipeline of leasing activity and a robust office market in New York, there may be upside to current estimates.

3. NewsRoom

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Dividends Up To 20% Wall Street Says You Should Sell

Nov -22

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ALX Oncology to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Nov -18

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Best Income Stocks to Buy for Nov. 13

Nov -13

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ALX Oncology Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

Nov -07

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Is Alexander's (ALX) Outperforming Other Finance Stocks This Year?

Nov -06

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ALX Oncology (ALXO) Expected to Announce Earnings on Friday

Nov -06

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Alexander's Announces Third Quarter Financial Results

Nov -03

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ALX Oncology to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Pipeline Progress Including Evorpacept CD47 Biomarker Data to be Presented at Upcoming SITC Annual Meeting

Oct -30

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.95%)

6. Segments

Fixed Lease

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alexander's Inc.'s 4.83% fixed lease growth is driven by increasing demand for commercial properties, strategic location expansion, and a strong balance sheet enabling the company to capitalize on new opportunities. Additionally, the company's diversified tenant base and long-term lease agreements provide a stable source of revenue, contributing to its steady growth.

Variable Lease

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Alexander's, Inc. Variable Lease growth of 8.5% is driven by increasing demand for flexible lease terms, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on technology integration and operational efficiency has improved customer experience, leading to higher retention rates and revenue growth.

Parking

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alexander's, Inc. parking segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing urbanization, rising demand for convenient parking options, and strategic location of parking facilities near high-traffic areas. Additionally, investments in technology, such as mobile payment systems and digital signage, enhance the customer experience and drive revenue growth.

Tenant Services

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Alexander's Tenant Services segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand for Class A office spaces, strategic lease renewals, and expansion of existing tenant relationships. Additionally, the company's focus on providing value-added services, such as property management and construction services, contributes to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Segment

Alexander's, Inc. operates retail stores that offer a wide range of products, including clothing, accessories, and home goods.

Real Estate Segment

Alexander's, Inc. owns and operates commercial properties, including office buildings, shopping centers, and apartments.

Theatre Segment

Alexander's, Inc. operates a chain of movie theaters that show the latest films and offer a range of concessions.

Investment Segment

Alexander's, Inc. invests in and manages a portfolio of investments, including stocks, bonds, and real estate investment trusts.

8. Alexander's, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes is moderate due to the availability of alternative products in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the presence of a large number of customers and the availability of alternative products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large size and negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the presence of barriers to entry and the company's established brand reputation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several competitors in the market and the high stakes involved.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 82.13%
Debt Cost 5.24%
Equity Weight 17.87%
Equity Cost 7.72%
WACC 5.68%
Leverage 459.72%

11. Quality Control: Alexander's, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CBL Properties

A-Score: 8.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alexanders

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Getty Realty

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Saul Centers

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alpine Income Property Trust

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Acadia Realty

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

211.82$

Current Price

211.82$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows