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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Allbirds, Inc.manufactures and sells footwear and apparel products for men and women.It offers shoes, such as running shoes, everyday sneakers, high-tops, slip-ons, boat shoes, flats, weather repellent shoes, and sandals.


The company's apparel products include activewear, tops, bottoms, dresses, sweaters, underwear, and socks.It sells its products through its retail stores in the United States and internationally, as well as online.Allbirds, Inc.


was formerly known as Bozz, Inc.Allbirds, Inc.was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on BIRD

Allbirds, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively driven by rising retail bankruptcies in 2024, which increased by 80% year-over-year, as reported on December 27, 2024. This trend may indicate a challenging retail landscape for the company. Additionally, the launch of the net-zero carbon shoe, M0.0NSHOT Zero, while innovative, may not have yet fully addressed the company's growth concerns, especially considering the need to balance sustainability with profitability. Allbirds had previously announced plans to explore ways to unlock its Q4 potential, but the current retail environment may pose significant headwinds.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Allbirds' Q3 2025 Earnings: Progress Amidst Challenges

Allbirds reported net revenue of $33 million for the third quarter, at the low end of the guidance range. Gross margin came in at 43.2%, a year-over-year decline primarily due to a higher mix of digital and international distributor sales. The company's adjusted EBITDA loss totaled $15.7 million, slightly better than expected. Actual EPS came out at -$2.49, beating estimates of -$2.64. SG&A expenses totaled $22 million, down 30% year-over-year, driven by lower personnel expenses and occupancy costs.

Publication Date: Nov -24

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Revenue Performance:: Net revenue totaled $33 million, aligning with the low end of guidance, with gross margin at 43.2% (down year-over-year).<br>
  • Cost Management:: SG&A expenses fell 30% YoY to $22 million, driven by lower personnel and occupancy costs, narrowing the adjusted EBITDA loss to $15.7 million.<br>
  • Inventory Reduction:: Inventory declined 25% YoY to $43 million, reflecting supply chain optimization and international transitions.<br>
  • Product Momentum:: New launches like the Wool Cruiser and waterproof collections drove strong performance, offsetting slower growth in core franchises like the original runner.<br>
  • Guidance Update:: Full-year revenue guidance of $161–$166 million and Q4 revenue of $56–$61 million, with adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to $57–$63 million.<br>

Operational Highlights

The company introduced new products, such as the Wool Cruiser and waterproof collections, which are performing well. However, some foundational franchises, like the original runner, have been slower to rebuild. Allbirds shifted its marketing efforts to support the evolving product engine, focusing on building long-term brand equity, with notable examples including the Wool Cruiser launch event with Pantone and increased influencer activation.

Guidance and Outlook

The company updated its guidance, expecting full-year net revenue between $161 million and $166 million, with a fourth-quarter net revenue guidance of $56 million to $61 million, flat to up 9% versus last year. Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be between $63 million and $57 million for the full year, with a significant improvement in the fourth quarter. Annie Mitchell explained that the sales results were impacted by the introduction of new products and the slower rebuilding of core franchises.

Valuation Insights

With a P/S Ratio of 0.23 and an EV/EBITDA of -0.71, the market appears to have factored in the company's current challenges. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.1%. Considering the current valuation multiples, it seems the market is pricing in a slow recovery. The company's ROE and ROIC are currently negative, at -108.35% and -90.34%, respectively, indicating significant challenges ahead.

Inventory Management and Future Plans

Annie Mitchell stated that inventory ended the quarter at $43 million, down 25% year-over-year, driven by international transitions and strong inventory management. Joe Vernachio added that the company's strategy for the Black Friday period will focus on new product launches and brand storytelling, with a focus on driving sales and building brand awareness. The company is preparing for a competitive fourth quarter and plans to offer promotions, including a strategic Black Friday and Cyber Monday plan.

3. NewsRoom

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Allbirds, H&M and Zara use recycled yarns from this Virginia startup that's backed by Patagonia

Nov -26

Source: youtube.com

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Allbirds, H&M and Zara use recycled yarns from this Virginia startup that's backed by Patagonia

Nov -24

Source: cnbc.com

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Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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Allbirds Appoints Lily Yan Hughes as Independent Director

Oct -31

Source: globenewswire.com

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Strength Seen in Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD): Can Its 12.6% Jump Turn into More Strength?

Oct -31

Source: zacks.com

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Allbirds Announces Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call

Oct -16

Source: globenewswire.com

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Vibrant Color Meets Sophisticated Style in Allbirds' Wool Cruiser

Sep -09

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.93%)

6. Segments

Footwear and Apparel Products

Expected Growth: 10.93%

Allbirds' 10.93% growth in footwear and apparel products is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly products, expansion into new markets, and successful marketing campaigns targeting health-conscious consumers. Additionally, the company's focus on comfort, quality, and innovative materials has led to strong brand loyalty and repeat business.

7. Detailed Products

Wool Runners

A minimalist running shoe made from merino wool, designed for casual wear and light athletic activities

Tree Runners

A sustainable running shoe made from eucalyptus tree fiber, designed for casual wear and light athletic activities

Wool Loungers

A comfortable slip-on shoe made from merino wool, designed for lounging around the house or casual outings

Tree Breezers

A breathable and lightweight shoe made from eucalyptus tree fiber, designed for warm weather and outdoor activities

Wool Dasher

A high-performance running shoe made from merino wool, designed for serious runners and athletes

Tree Skippers

A casual and comfortable slip-on shoe made from eucalyptus tree fiber, designed for daily wear

8. Allbirds, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Allbirds' products are relatively unique, but customers may still opt for substitutes such as traditional footwear or other sustainable brands.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Allbirds' customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of substitutes, but the company's strong brand loyalty and premium pricing strategy mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Allbirds' suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain, which reduces dependence on individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the growing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly products, making it an attractive market for new companies to enter.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the sustainable footwear market is moderate, with several established players competing for market share, but Allbirds' strong brand and product differentiation help to mitigate this rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.64%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 66.36%
Equity Cost 12.95%
WACC 9.92%
Leverage 50.69%

11. Quality Control: Allbirds, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Victoria's Secret

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 2.3

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Duluth Holdings

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.3

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Rent the Runway

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.3

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Zumiez

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Allbirds

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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The Children's Place

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.97$

Current Price

4.97$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows