Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States.It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement.The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients.


It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans.The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists.It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients.


The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc.and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc.in February 2024.


Astrana Health, Inc.was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ASTH

Astrana Health, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q3 2025 earnings miss, with quarterly earnings of $0.01 per share, significantly lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.33 per share a year ago. Additionally, institutional investor Yousif Capital Management LLC reduced its holdings in the company by 14.5% in the quarter. The company's earnings call highlighted challenges, but specific details on future prospects were not provided.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Astrana Health's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Astrana Health delivered a robust third quarter in 2025, with total revenues reaching $956 million, representing a 100% year-over-year increase and a 46% sequential growth, largely driven by the integration of Prospect Health and solid organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $68.5 million, up 52% year-over-year and 42% sequentially. However, the company's EPS was $0.01, falling short of estimates at $0.47.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Total revenues reached $956 million, up 100% YoY and 46% sequentially, driven by Prospect Health integration and organic growth.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA hit $68.5 million, a 52% YoY increase and 42% sequentially, reflecting operational efficiency.
  • 2025 Guidance Update:: Revenue projected at $3.1–$3.18 billion; adjusted EBITDA at $200–$210 million, with $60M and $15M reductions due to delayed contracts.
  • AI & Tech Integration:: Deploying AI for predictive patient risk models, administrative efficiency, and a LLM for clinical data queries to enhance care quality.
  • Leverage Reduction Target:: Net leverage at 2.5x pro forma EBITDA, with plans to reduce it in 12 months via EBITDA growth and 40–45% free cash flow conversion.

Operational Highlights and Integration Progress

The company's operational performance was strong, with a focus on smart growth, disciplined risk progression, quality and cost excellence, and operating leverage through technology. Astrana is making significant progress in integrating Prospect Health, with a focus on aligning and enhancing the provider and patient experience, standardizing operating systems and financial reporting, and implementing Astrana's technology platform. As Brandon Sim noted, "the integration is going smoothly," and the company is on track to achieve its goals.

Leveraging AI and Technology

Astrana is leveraging AI across its enterprise to drive improvements in efficiency and care quality. The company's predictive models identify patients at high medical risk, and AI-driven tools are being deployed to reduce administrative friction and prevent fraud, waste, and abuse. The introduction of a large language model integrated into its platform is a significant step forward, allowing clinicians to query a patient's longitudinal medical record and receive cited source-based responses.

Guidance Update and Outlook

Astrana has updated its 2025 guidance, with total revenue expected to be in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.18 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $200 million to $210 million. The update reflects the timing of full risk contracts with certain payer partners, which have shifted from a 2025 start to a first quarter 2026 start date. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 27.4%, indicating a strong outlook for the company.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 121.0, P/B Ratio of 1.6, and EV/EBITDA of 17.87, Astrana's valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -7.5, indicating a healthy debt position. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 7.36%, which is a positive sign for investors.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Geode Capital Management LLC Lowers Holdings in Astrana Health, Inc. $ASTH

Nov -29

Card image cap

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Card image cap

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates

Nov -06

Card image cap

Astrana Health, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -06

Card image cap

Yousif Capital Management LLC Sells 2,309 Shares of Astrana Health, Inc. $ASTH

Oct -24

Card image cap

Astrana Health, Inc. Schedules 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results Release and Conference Call

Oct -15

Card image cap

Astrana Health, Inc. to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences

Sep -02

Card image cap

ASTH vs. USPH: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Aug -29

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.13%)

6. Segments

Care Partners

Expected Growth: 10%

Care Partners from Astrana Health, Inc. achieves 10% growth driven by increasing demand for value-based care, expansion into new markets, strategic partnerships, and investments in digital health technologies. Additionally, the company's focus on patient-centered care, cost-effective solutions, and strong provider networks contribute to its growth momentum.

Care Delivery

Expected Growth: 11%

Astrana Health's Care Delivery segment growth of 11% is driven by increasing adoption of value-based care models, expansion of Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care contracts, and strategic partnerships with healthcare providers to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs.

Care Enablement

Expected Growth: 13%

Astrana Health's Care Enablement segment growth of 13% is driven by increasing adoption of value-based care, rising demand for patient engagement platforms, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, innovative care coordination solutions, and investments in AI-powered analytics are contributing to its rapid growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 9%

Astrana Health's 9% growth is driven by increasing demand for its innovative diagnostic solutions, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on digital health and AI-powered diagnostics has enabled it to capitalize on the growing trend of personalized medicine, further fueling its growth.

7. Detailed Products

AstranaMD

AstranaMD is a comprehensive telemedicine platform that enables remote consultations between patients and healthcare providers.

AstranaRx

AstranaRx is a digital pharmacy platform that allows patients to manage their prescriptions and medications online.

AstranaCare

AstranaCare is a care coordination platform that enables healthcare providers to manage patient care plans and coordinate care across different settings.

AstranaAnalytics

AstranaAnalytics is a data analytics platform that provides insights and analytics to healthcare providers and payers.

8. Astrana Health, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Astrana Health, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative healthcare services and products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Astrana Health, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of concentration of buyers in the healthcare industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Astrana Health, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the healthcare industry.

Threat Of New Entrants

Astrana Health, Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for healthcare services and the ease of entry into the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Astrana Health, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 34.32%
Debt Cost 7.79%
Equity Weight 65.68%
Equity Cost 9.52%
WACC 8.93%
Leverage 52.26%

11. Quality Control: Astrana Health, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Cryo-Cell International

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Addus HomeCare

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cross Country Healthcare

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Aveanna Healthcare

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
ASHS

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Astrana Health

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

22.07$

Current Price

22.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows