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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intrepid Potash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction and production of the potash in the United States and internationally.It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions.The Potash segment offers muriate of potash or potassium chloride for use as a fertilizer input in the agricultural market; as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids for oil and gas wells, as well as an input to other industrial processes in the industrial market; and as a nutrient supplement in the animal feed market.


The Trio segment provides Trio, a specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle.The Oilfield Solutions segment sells water for use in the oil and gas services industry; and offers potassium chloride real-time mixing services on location for hydraulic fracturing operations and trucking services.The company also offers salt for use in animal feeds, industrial applications, pool salts, and treatment of roads and walkways for ice melting or to manage road conditions; magnesium chloride for use in the deicing and dedusting of roads; brines for well development and completion activities in the oil and gas industry; and metal recovery salt, a combination of potash and salt to enhance the recovery of aluminum in the aluminum recycling processing facilities.


Intrepid Potash, Inc.was founded in 2000 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on IPI

Intrepid Potash's recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q3 earnings miss, with quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.13 per share. Despite steady demand for potash and Trio, and solid unit economics, the company's net income was $3.7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share. Reduced CAPEX and potential future dividends were noted, but recent production setbacks and lower potash prices posed challenges. (Source: Intrepid Potash, Inc. Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Intrepid Potash Sustains Strong Financial Performance

Intrepid Potash, Inc. reported a net income of $3.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $12 million for the third quarter, representing a significant improvement from the net loss of $1.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $10 million in the same period last year. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.11, slightly below the estimated $0.13. The strong results were driven by higher pricing in Potash and Trio, as well as improved production, leading to better unit economics. The company's year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $45 million represents its best start since 2015.

Publication Date: Nov -18

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Q3 Financial Performance:: Net income reached $3.7 million (vs. $1.8M loss in Q3 2023) with adjusted EBITDA of $12 million (up from $10M in 2023), driven by higher pricing and production efficiency.
  • Cost Reductions in Core Segments:: Potash COGS improved by 9% to $327/ton, while Trio’s COGS dropped 15% to $238/ton, enhancing unit economics by low-single-digit percentages.
  • Bullish Potash Market Outlook:: Global supply-demand balance remains stable; potash prices are at 2023 levels, offering relative value compared to other fertilizers with no major supply additions until mid-2027.
  • 2026 Trio Production Guidance:: Output projected at 285,000–295,000 tons, expected to drive 5–7% per-unit cost improvements and solid margins, supported by $372–$382/ton sales price in Q4.
  • Capital Allocation Focus:: Company prioritizes cost reductions and core asset performance, with returns on recent investments expected to materialize by late 2027, while Oilfield Services face ongoing weak sales environments.

Segment Performance

The Potash segment saw a 9% improvement in cost of goods sold per ton to $327, while Trio's cost of goods sold per ton improved by 15% to $238. The average net realized sales price for potash totaled $381 per ton, and the gross margin was $6.3 million, approximately $2.2 million higher than last year. In Trio, 36,000 tons were sold at an average net realized sales price of $402 per ton, driven by supportive potash values and improved realization of low chloride pricing premiums in key markets.

Outlook and Guidance

Looking ahead to 2026, Intrepid Potash expects its Trio production to be in the range of 285,000 to 295,000 tons, driving a 5% to 7% improvement in per unit costs and delivering another year of solid margins. The company expects its fourth quarter sales and pricing guidance to be as follows: in Potash, sales volumes to be between 50,000 to 60,000 tons at an average net realized sales price in the range of $385 to $395 per ton, and in Trio, sales volumes to be between 80,000 to 90,000 tons at an average net realized sales price in the range of $372 to $382 per ton.

Valuation and Estimates

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -10.4%. The company's current valuation metrics include a P/E Ratio of -1.66, P/B Ratio of 0.66, P/S Ratio of 1.2, and EV/EBITDA of 6.8. The stock's Free Cash Flow Yield is 10.65%, indicating a potentially attractive return for investors. As Jason Ursaner asked about the company's priorities, Kevin Crutchfield replied that the company will continue to focus on cost reduction and improving performance at core assets, which is expected to drive future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund Q3 2025 Portfolio Review

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Intrepid Potash (IPI) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Intrepid Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

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Best Fertilizer Stocks To Add to Your Watchlist – October 24th

Oct -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Invests $1.18 Million in Intrepid Potash, Inc $IPI

Oct -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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Intrepid Announces Date for Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release

Oct -16

Source: businesswire.com

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Intrepid Potash: U.S. Potash Producer With A Fortress Balance Sheet And A Solid Future

Oct -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.52%)

6. Segments

Potash

Expected Growth: 2%

Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s potash segment growth is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in the agricultural sector. Rising crop prices and government initiatives to enhance food security also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's low-cost production and strategic location enable it to capitalize on growing demand from Latin American markets.

Trio

Expected Growth: 3%

Intrepid Potash's Trio segment growth is driven by increasing demand for potassium magnesium chloride, a key ingredient in organic and specialty fertilizers. Rising adoption of sustainable farming practices, growing demand for organic food, and Trio's unique properties as a natural, OMRI-listed product contribute to its growth.

Oilfield Solutions

Expected Growth: 4%

Intrepid Potash's Oilfield Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing demand for drilling and completion fluids, expansion into new basins, and growing adoption of horizontal drilling. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, investments in research and development, and focus on operational efficiency are contributing to its 4% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 1%

Intrepid Potash's 'Other' segment growth is driven by increasing sales of salt and magnesium chloride, used in road de-icing and dust control. Strong demand from municipalities and private contractors, coupled with the company's strategic pricing and cost management, contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Potash

A naturally occurring mineral that is used as a key ingredient in fertilizers, providing essential nutrients to plants

Trio

A unique blend of sulfate of potash, magnesium, and sulfate, used as a fertilizer and soil amendment

Sulfate of Potash (SOP)

A water-soluble fertilizer that provides potassium and sulfur to plants

Magnesium Chloride

A naturally occurring mineral used as a dust suppressant, ice melter, and fertilizer

8. Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Intrepid Potash, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative products such as potassium chloride and sulfate of potash. However, the company's focus on producing high-quality potash products reduces the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Intrepid Potash, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with its customers and the lack of concentration in the buyer market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Intrepid Potash, Inc. is medium due to the presence of a few large suppliers of raw materials. However, the company's vertical integration and long-term contracts with suppliers reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Intrepid Potash, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the potash industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Intrepid Potash, Inc. is high due to the presence of several large players in the potash industry, leading to intense competition and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.92%
Debt Cost 11.60%
Equity Weight 99.08%
Equity Cost 14.85%
WACC 14.82%
Leverage 0.93%

11. Quality Control: Intrepid Potash, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CVR Partners

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Momentum: 8.0

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Intrepid Potash

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.31$

Current Price

25.31$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows