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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States.The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices.Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

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1.b. Last Insights on CVNA

Carvana's recent performance was driven by strong retail and wholesale vehicle sales, with a 55% revenue jump and 44% year-over-year retail unit sales growth. Wedbush upgraded the company to outperform, citing limited downside risk and improving financials, and raised its price target to $400. The company's national tech-enabled platform is rapidly gaining market share, with only 1.5% penetration in the fragmented U.S. used car market. Carvana's Q3 results highlight strong execution, with substantial market share gains and aggressive expansion of reconditioning capacity.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Carvana's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Carvana reported a robust Q3 with revenues reaching $5.647 billion, a 55% increase year-over-year, and a new company record. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin was also impressive, with retail units sold totaling 155,941, a 44% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.28, slightly below analyst estimates of $1.3. The company's net income margin was 4.7%, an increase from 4% in the previous year. The strong financial performance was driven by the company's continued focus on identifying fundamental gains and operating efficiencies.

Publication Date: Nov -02

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Retail Units Sold:: 155,941 units, up 44% YoY, setting a new company record.
  • Revenue Growth:: $5.647B total revenue, a 55% YoY increase, driven by higher average selling prices and partnerships.
  • Profit Margins:: Adjusted EBITDA margin exceeds 13.5% with net income of $263M (4.7% margin), up from 4% YoY.
  • Inventory Expansion:: 50% more cars available for customers compared to prior year, with flat inventory turnover.
  • Loan Partnerships:: $14B in future loan principal agreements, with Ally upscaling from $4B to $6B due to strong performance.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The revenue growth was driven by higher average selling prices and traditional gross revenue treatment for certain vehicles acquired from a large retail marketplace partner. The company's non-GAAP retail gross profit per unit (GPU) decreased by $77, primarily driven by higher retail depreciation rates. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded, driven by the benefits of scale and continued pursuit of fundamental gains.

Operational Highlights

Carvana's operational performance was also strong, with the company achieving a record number of retail units sold. The company's inventory turn time was approximately flat year-over-year, while customers had nearly 50% more cars to choose from. The company's same-day delivery test in Phoenix was also successful, showing a sales lift. As Ernest Garcia mentioned, "speed and conversion are closely related, and the test has been a success."

Valuation and Growth Expectations

Carvana's valuation metrics indicate a high growth expectation. The company's P/S Ratio is 3.61, and EV/EBITDA is 31.7. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 27.1%. The company's ROE is 37.15%, indicating strong profitability. The high valuation multiples suggest that the market expects Carvana to continue its strong growth trajectory.

Future Outlook

3. NewsRoom

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12,370 Shares in Carvana Co. $CVNA Acquired by Edgestream Partners L.P.

Dec -04

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543,394 Shares in Carvana Co. $CVNA Acquired by Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership

Dec -03

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Carvana poised for market-share gains, UBS says in initial coverage

Dec -01

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UBS Slaps $450 Target On Carvana

Dec -01

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Carvana is a ‘true disruptor,' but does it have room to grow market share?

Dec -01

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Carvana poised for market-share gains, UBS says in initial coverage

Dec -01

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Here Are Monday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Archer Aviation, Beta Technologies, Carvana, Chevron, MPLX, Toast, Zscaler and More

Dec -01

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Carvana: Huge Retail Sales Growth And Substantial Market Share Gains

Dec -01

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.40%)

6. Segments

Retail Vehicle

Expected Growth: 10%

Carvana Co.'s 10% retail vehicle growth is driven by increasing online car buying adoption, expanding geographic presence, and a user-friendly e-commerce platform. Additionally, the company's 7-day return policy, free delivery, and competitive pricing contribute to its growth. Furthermore, Carvana's data analytics capabilities and strategic partnerships with lenders and dealerships also support its expansion.

Wholesale Vehicle

Expected Growth: 12%

Carvana's 12% wholesale vehicle growth is driven by increasing demand for used cars, expansion of its vending machine network, and strategic partnerships with dealerships and fleets. Additionally, the company's proprietary technology and data analytics capabilities enable it to efficiently source and price vehicles, further fueling growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 9%

Carvana's 9% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing adoption of its vehicle subscription service, Carvana Flex, and expansion of its commercial solutions, including partnerships with fleet operators and rental car companies, which leverage its proprietary technology and logistics network.

7. Detailed Products

Used Cars

Carvana offers a wide selection of used cars from various manufacturers, with a focus on providing a transparent and hassle-free buying experience.

Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Vehicles

Carvana's certified pre-owned vehicles have undergone a rigorous inspection process and come with warranties, providing customers with added peace of mind.

Car Vending Machines

Carvana's car vending machines are multi-story glass towers that store vehicles, allowing customers to pick up their purchased cars in a unique and memorable way.

Financing and Insurance

Carvana offers financing options and insurance products to help customers complete their car-buying journey, making it a one-stop-shop.

Trade-In and Sell

Carvana allows customers to trade-in their existing vehicles or sell them directly to the company, providing a convenient way to upgrade or get cash for their car.

8. Carvana Co.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Carvana's business model is highly dependent on its online platform, which makes it vulnerable to substitutes. However, the company's focus on customer experience and convenience helps to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Carvana's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's unique business model and lack of direct competition. This gives Carvana an upper hand in negotiating prices and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Carvana relies on a network of suppliers for its inventory, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and growth prospects help to mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The used car market is highly competitive, and new entrants could potentially disrupt Carvana's business model. However, the company's strong brand and established logistics network provide a barrier to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The used car market is highly competitive, with many established players. Carvana's unique business model and focus on customer experience help to differentiate it from competitors, but the company still faces intense rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 96.50%
Debt Cost 11.00%
Equity Weight 3.50%
Equity Cost 20.37%
WACC 11.32%
Leverage 2759.67%

11. Quality Control: Carvana Co. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Ulta Beauty

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Etsy

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Advance Auto Parts

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Carvana

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 0.8

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Wayfair

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
RH

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

399.77$

Current Price

399.77$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows