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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CoreCivic, Inc.owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States.It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties.


The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address America's recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions.Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment.As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 46 correctional and detention facilities, 26 residential reentry centers, and 10 properties for lease.


The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on CXW

The recent 3 months performance of CoreCivic, Inc. was negatively impacted by a lack of recent earnings releases, with the last update being the Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025. The absence of a recent earnings release may have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty. Additionally, the company's announcement of contract modifications to add capacity for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in February 2025, while positive, may not have been enough to offset the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CoreCivic's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

CoreCivic reported a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with GAAP EPS of $0.24 per share and FFO per share of $0.48, in line with analysts' estimates. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $88.8 million, a 6.6% increase from the prior year quarter. Revenue from federal partners, primarily Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the U.S. Marshals Service, comprised 55% of CoreCivic's total revenue in the third quarter, with a 28% year-over-year increase. Total occupancy for Safety and Community segments was 76.7%, up 1.5 points since the year-ago quarter.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Contract Awards & Revenue Growth:: Four new contracts to generate ~$320M in annual revenue, boosting 2026 revenue to $2.5B and EBITDA to $450M+.
  • Federal Revenue Surge:: 28% YoY federal revenue growth (ICE/U.S. Marshals), contributing 55% of Q3 total revenue with 76.7% occupancy.
  • Financial Outperformance:: Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.24, FFO of $0.48, with adjusted EPS and normalized FFO exceeding forecasts by $0.03–$0.04/share.
  • 2025 Guidance:: Adjusted EBITDA of $355M–$359M, normalized FFO/share of $1.94–$2, and $197.9M in share repurchase capacity remaining.
  • Capital Allocation:: $248M liquidity (including $191.4M in borrowing capacity) and plans to double Q4 share repurchase pace amid undervalued stock.

Contracting Activity and Growth Prospects

CoreCivic has made significant progress in contracting several idle facilities, with four new contract awards expected to generate approximately $320 million in annual revenue once stabilized. These awards are expected to contribute to the company's growth, with annual run-rate revenue increasing to approximately $2.5 billion and annual run-rate EBITDA increasing by $100 million to over $450 million. As Damon Hininger, CoreCivic's CEO, noted, "We have signed four contracts, and we expect to ramp up these facilities quickly."

Valuation and Growth Expectations

With a P/E Ratio of 17.22 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.58, the market appears to be pricing in moderate growth expectations. However, with analysts estimating revenue growth at 14.3% next year, the stock may be undervalued. Additionally, the company's Free Cash Flow Yield of 11.34% suggests a healthy cash generation profile. As CoreCivic continues to activate idle facilities and expand its capacity, investors may want to keep a close eye on the company's progress.

Capital Allocation and Share Repurchases

CoreCivic plans to accelerate the pace of its share repurchases in future quarters, with Q4 guidance contemplating double the space of the previous quarter. As of September 30, 2025, CoreCivic had approximately $197.9 million available under its $500 million share repurchase authorization. With a strong hiring experience and no staffing issues, the company is well-positioned to execute on its growth plans and return value to shareholders.

Outlook and Risks

The government shutdown poses a risk to CoreCivic's operations, but the company has been operating 24/7 as an essential service, and admissions, discharges, and activity in its facilities are status quo. With interest on payments when the government resumes operations, CoreCivic is well-positioned to weather the shutdown. As the company looks to 2026, it is forecasting $2.5 billion in revenue and over $450 million in EBITDA, presenting a compelling growth opportunity.

3. NewsRoom

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CoreCivic Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility By $300 Million

Dec -02

Source: globenewswire.com

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Gladstone Commercial (NASDAQ:GOOD) & CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW) Head-To-Head Comparison

Nov -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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CoreCivic Announces $200 Million Increase to Share Repurchase Authorization

Nov -10

Source: globenewswire.com

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CoreCivic Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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AlphaQuest LLC Has $435,000 Stock Position in CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW

Oct -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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CoreCivic: From Distressed Credit To Policy-Backed Growth Story

Oct -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CoreCivic: It Is Time To Trade With Options (Rating Upgrade)

Oct -15

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.56%)

6. Segments

Safety

Expected Growth: None%

None

Community

Expected Growth: None%

None

Properties

Expected Growth: None%

None

Unallocated Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Correctional Facilities

CoreCivic operates a network of correctional facilities that provide a safe and secure environment for inmates, while also offering rehabilitation programs and services to help reduce recidivism.

Immigration Detention Centers

CoreCivic operates immigration detention centers that provide a safe and humane environment for individuals awaiting immigration proceedings, while also offering access to legal services and resources.

Residential Reentry Centers

CoreCivic operates residential reentry centers that provide a supportive environment for individuals transitioning back into their communities, offering counseling, job training, and other rehabilitation programs.

Community Corrections

CoreCivic offers community corrections services, including electronic monitoring, day reporting, and other alternative sentencing programs, to help individuals transition back into their communities.

Government Partnerships

CoreCivic partners with government agencies to provide a range of services, including facility management, rehabilitation programs, and community corrections services.

8. CoreCivic, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative correctional facilities and services. While there are some substitutes, they may not offer the same level of quality and security as CoreCivic's facilities.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with government agencies and the lack of alternative service providers. Customers have limited negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for goods and services. While suppliers have some negotiating power, CoreCivic's size and scale mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the correctional facilities industry. New entrants would need significant capital and expertise to compete with CoreCivic.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CoreCivic, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the correctional facilities industry. The company faces competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.57%
Debt Cost 8.08%
Equity Weight 57.43%
Equity Cost 8.08%
WACC 8.08%
Leverage 74.11%

11. Quality Control: CoreCivic, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Franklin BSP Realty Trust

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Farmland Partners

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Gladstone Land

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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AFC Gamma

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CoreCivic

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Uniti

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.64$

Current Price

18.64$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows