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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Dutch Bros Inc.operates and franchises drive-thru shops.It offers Dutch Bros hot and cold espresso-based beverages, and cold brew coffee products, as well as Blue Rebel energy drinks, tea, lemonade, smoothies, and other beverages through company-operated shops and online channels.


As of May 11, 2022, it operated 572 drive-thru coffee locations across 12 states in the United States.The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon.

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1.b. Last Insights on BROS

Dutch Bros Inc.'s recent performance has been negatively impacted by higher costs, weaker pricing power, and expansion spending, which have weighed on sentiment. The company's Q3 earnings report revealed record earnings, growing digital ecosystem, and strategic expansion, but also highlighted margin pressures from high coffee prices and food sales expansion. Despite these challenges, Dutch Bros' rapid store expansion, strong same-store sales growth, and robust demand from younger consumers justify a higher price. The company's focus on customer traffic over price hikes and its accelerating shop growth and rising digital mix position it for long-term growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Dutch Bros' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Dutch Bros reported a robust Q3 2025, with revenue growth of 27% to $393 million, driven by a 7.4% company-operated same-shop sales growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $78 million, up 22% year-over-year. The company's EPS came in at $0.19, beating estimates of $0.17. The strong financial performance was underpinned by a 6.8% company-operated transaction growth, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of transaction growth. Beverage, food, and packaging costs were 25.9% of company-operated shop revenue, unfavorable year-over-year due to higher coffee costs.

Publication Date: Nov -13

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: 25% year-over-year increase to $424 million in Q3 2025.
  • Same-Shop Sales Growth:: System sales up 5.7% and company-operated sales up 7.4% in Q3.
  • Store Expansion:: Entered six new states in 2025, including five in Q3, with 175 new shops projected in 2026.
  • EBITDA Performance:: Adjusted EBITDA rose 22% to $78 million in Q3, up from $63.9 million in 2024.
  • Guidance Raise:: Full-year revenue guidance increased to $1.61–$1.615 billion due to strong transaction and digital growth.

Growth Drivers and Expansion

Dutch Bros continued to expand its presence, entering six new states this year, including five in Q3, bringing its total presence to 24 states. The company is on track to reach its goal of 2,029 shops in 2029, with approximately 175 new system shops projected to open in 2026. The company's digital presence and innovation engine continue to drive growth, with Order Ahead mix reaching 13% and Dutch Rewards contributing to transaction growth. As management noted, "the company's culture and baristas are the heartbeat of its brand, providing a unique and exceptional customer experience."

Guidance and Outlook

Dutch Bros raised its full-year guidance for total revenues and system same-shop sales growth, reflecting confidence in its long-term durability and transaction-driving initiatives. Total revenues are now projected to be between $1.61 billion and $1.615 billion, with system same-shop sales growth expected to be around 5% for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA remains in the range of $285 million to $290 million.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 117.86 and an EV/EBITDA of 57.48, Dutch Bros' valuation multiples suggest that the market has high expectations for the company's future growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 25.6%, which may justify some of the premium. However, the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 2.33 and ROIC of 4.41% indicate that there may be some room for improvement in terms of debt management and return on invested capital.

Operational Highlights

The company's food program has been successful, with 4% comp lift, and 1/4 of that coming from transaction growth. Dutch Bros is investing in labor and equipment to support the growth of food sales. The company is also focused on maintaining its culture and ensuring the quality and consistency of the Broista experience as it scales. With a strong pipeline of sites, adding about 30 sites per month over the last 6 months, Dutch Bros is confident in its goal of 2,029 shops by 2029.

3. NewsRoom

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Dutch Bros Up 10% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Can Dutch Bros Unlock Higher Transactions Through Order Ahead?

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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5 Amazing Growth Stocks to Buy Before 2026

Nov -30

Source: fool.com

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Co-Founder Sells 2.5 million Dutch Bros Coffee Shares for $137 Million

Nov -30

Source: fool.com

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3 Brilliant Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for the Long Term

Nov -28

Source: fool.com

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Dutch Bros: An Undervalued Growth Opportunity

Nov -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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BROS' Expansion Pipeline Surges: Will the Growth Last in 2026?

Nov -28

Source: zacks.com

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First Look: CME outage, Black Friday shifts, AI job impact

Nov -28

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.29%)

6. Segments

Company-operated Shops

Expected Growth: 10.33%

Dutch Bros Inc.'s 10.33% growth in company-operated shops is driven by strategic store openings in high-demand markets, effective marketing campaigns, and a loyal customer base. Additionally, the company's focus on employee development and retention has led to improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth. Furthermore, the brand's unique culture and customer experience have enabled it to maintain a competitive edge in the coffee shop market.

Franchising and Other

Expected Growth: 9.95%

Dutch Bros Inc.'s 9.95% growth in Franchising and Other is driven by increasing demand for coffee and beverages, successful franchisee partnerships, strategic store openings, and effective marketing campaigns. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, loyalty programs, and menu innovation also contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Coffee Drinks

Specialty coffee drinks made with high-quality Arabica beans, including espresso, latte, cappuccino, and cold brew.

Tea Drinks

Hot and iced tea drinks made with premium tea leaves, including chai, green tea, and fruit infusions.

Rebel Energy Drinks

High-caffeine energy drinks with a unique blend of ingredients to provide a mental and physical energy boost.

Smoothies

Blended drinks made with real fruit and yogurt, available in a variety of flavors.

Mocha Freeze

A frozen coffee drink blended with ice and topped with whipped cream.

Breve

A rich and creamy coffee drink made with half-and-half instead of milk.

8. Dutch Bros Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Dutch Bros Inc. has a unique brand image and customer loyalty, making it difficult for substitutes to gain traction.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternatives, Dutch Bros Inc.'s strong brand loyalty and customer retention mitigate this force.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Dutch Bros Inc. has a diversified supplier base, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are some barriers to entry, the coffee shop industry is relatively easy to enter, and new entrants could potentially disrupt the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The coffee shop industry is highly competitive, with many established players and a high level of rivalry among them.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 24.37%
Debt Cost 7.70%
Equity Weight 75.63%
Equity Cost 16.18%
WACC 14.11%
Leverage 32.22%

11. Quality Control: Dutch Bros Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Darden

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.7

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A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.3

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Brinker

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Wingstop

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Dutch Bros

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Shake Shack

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

58.43$

Current Price

58.43$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows