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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Shake Shack Inc.owns, operates, and licenses Shake Shack restaurants (Shacks) in the United States and internationally.Its Shacks offers hamburgers, hot dogs, chicken, crinkle cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer, wine, and other products.


As of December 29, 2021, it operated 369 Shacks, including 218 domestic company-operated Shacks, 25 domestic licensed Shacks, and 126 international licensed Shacks.Shake Shack Inc.was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on SHAK

Shake Shack's recent performance has been impacted by several negative factors. The company's high valuation, with a "Hold" rating from 24 brokerages, including three with a sell recommendation, may have contributed to investor skepticism (MarketBeat.com). Additionally, major shareholder Mane Global sold its entire $80 million position in Shake Shack, representing 3.65% of its assets under management. The upcoming CFO transition, with Katherine Fogertey stepping down in March 2026, may also be a concern. Furthermore, increasing competition and changing consumer preferences, highlighted by the popularity of "value hooks" like the Big Shack burger, may be affecting the company's growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Shake Shack's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Shake Shack reported a robust third quarter, with total revenue growing 15.9% year-over-year to $367.4 million, driven by new Shack openings and growth in the comp Shack base. Same-Shack sales growth was 4.9%, a 390 basis point improvement from the first half of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA grew 18.2% year-over-year to $54.1 million, or 14.7% of total revenue. The company's net income attributable to Shake Shack, Inc. was $12.5 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, slightly missing analyst estimates of $0.3183. Restaurant-level profit reached 22.8% of Shack sales, a 180 basis point improvement over last year.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Total Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue rose 15.9% YoY to $367.4M, driven by 27–37 new unit openings and 4.9% same-Shack sales growth (390 bps improvement YoY).
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA grew 18.2% YoY to $54.1M ($14.7% of revenue), with restaurant-level profit at 22.8% of sales (180 bps improvement YoY).
  • Cost Management & Margin Improvements:: Blended food/paper inflation reduced to mid-single digits via supplier negotiations, despite 15% license sales growth to $218.7M.
  • Strategic Initiatives:: Launched $1, $3, $5 value menu, 2026 loyalty platform, and labor efficiency model—nearly all Shacks met labor targets, with <6-minute average ticket times.
  • Guidance & Future Plans:: 2025 full-year revenue guidance of $1.45B includes 60 new Shacks in 2026, $54.1–$54.5M license revenue, and $10M quarterly G&A increase for marketing investments.

Operational Efficiency and Guest Satisfaction

The company's focus on operational efficiency and guest satisfaction has yielded positive results. Average ticket times are now below 6 minutes, and metrics such as restaurant cleanliness, friendliness, and other key indicators have improved despite fewer labor hours. CEO Rob Lynch attributed this to the company's focus on optimizing labor and building a culture of excellence. As Lynch noted, "We're getting faster, we're getting more accurate, and we're delivering great experiences."

Growth Initiatives and Guidance

Shake Shack is investing in technology infrastructure, particularly kiosk and digital channels, to drive comp sales growth. The company expects system-wide unit openings of 27 to 37 in the fourth quarter, with total revenue of $406 million to $412 million and same-Shack sales up low single digits year-over-year. Full-year 2025 guidance includes total revenue of approximately $1.45 billion, with same-Shack sales up low single digits year-over-year. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 13.4%.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 91.18 and an EV/EBITDA of 25.49, Shake Shack's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE of 8.76% and ROIC of 2.34% indicate a relatively efficient use of capital. As the company continues to invest in growth initiatives, it remains to be seen whether it can meet these expectations.

3. NewsRoom

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Shake Shack to Participate in Upcoming December Investor Conferences

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

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Creative Planning Boosts Holdings in Shake Shack, Inc. $SHAK

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Creative Planning Purchases 1,986 Shares of Shake Shack, Inc. $SHAK

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Mane Global Sells Out of its $80 Million Shake Shack Position: Is the Growth Stock in Trouble?

Nov -26

Source: fool.com

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Shake Shack's Big Shack burger is more than an internet sensation. Here's what it says about the restaurant business.

Nov -25

Source: marketwatch.com

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Shake Shack Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition

Nov -25

Source: businesswire.com

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Shake Shack, Inc. (NYSE:SHAK) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Hold” by Brokerages

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Here Are Friday's Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Applied Materials, Caterpillar, Home Depot, Microsoft, Shake Shack, StubHub and More

Nov -14

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.89%)

6. Segments

Shack

Expected Growth: 13%

Shack's 13% growth driven by strategic expansion into new markets, increased brand awareness, and menu innovation. Same-Shack sales growth of 3.5% fueled by digital transformation, including mobile ordering and delivery. Strong unit economics, with average unit volumes exceeding $2.5 million, support continued growth.

Sales-based Royalties

Expected Growth: 10%

Shake Shack's sales-based royalties growth is driven by increasing brand recognition, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Same-shack sales growth, driven by menu innovation and digital transformation, contributes to higher royalties. Additionally, the company's focus on international development and franchising accelerates royalty income, resulting in a 10% growth rate.

Initial Territory and Opening Fees

Expected Growth: 8%

Shake Shack's initial territory and opening fees growth is driven by increasing demand for premium fast food, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's strong brand recognition, high-quality products, and efficient operations also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, including mobile ordering and delivery, has enhanced customer experience and driven sales.

7. Detailed Products

Burgers

Shake Shack's signature Angus beef burgers made with all-natural Angus beef, free of added hormones and antibiotics.

Hot Dogs

All-natural Angus beef hot dogs, served on a toasted potato bun with a variety of toppings.

Chicken

Crispy chicken breasts, hand-breaded and pressure-cooked to perfection.

Flat-Top Dogs

All-natural Angus beef hot dogs, topped with ShackSauce, American cheese, and crispy bacon.

ShackBurger

Our signature burger featuring an Angus beef patty, American cheese, lettuce, tomato, and ShackSauce.

Frozen Custard

Rich and creamy frozen custard, available in a variety of flavors and mix-ins.

Concretes

Thick and creamy frozen custard blended with mix-ins, available in a variety of flavors.

Shakes

Thick and creamy frozen custard blended with milk, available in a variety of flavors.

8. Shake Shack Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Shake Shack's menu items are moderately substitutable with other fast-casual restaurants, but its high-quality ingredients and unique flavors provide some differentiation.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Shake Shack's customers have some bargaining power due to the presence of competitors, but the company's strong brand loyalty and high customer satisfaction reduce this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Shake Shack's suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain, which reduces dependence on individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the fast-casual industry is moderate, as it requires significant investment and brand recognition to compete with established players like Shake Shack.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The fast-casual industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry for Shake Shack.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 39.94%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 60.06%
Equity Cost 12.82%
WACC 9.28%
Leverage 66.50%

11. Quality Control: Shake Shack Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Darden

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Domino's Pizza

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Brinker

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Wingstop

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Dutch Bros

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Shake Shack

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

77.93$

Current Price

77.93$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows