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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.provides artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless security screening systems.Its products include Evolv Express, a touchless security screening system designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices, and tactical knives as visitors walk through at a normal pace; Evolv Insights that provides self-serve access, insights regarding visitor flow and arrival curves, location specific performance, system detection performance, and alarm statistics; and Evolv Edge to detect non-metallic explosive devices, explosive devices, firearms, and tactical knives without requiring visitors to divest or empty their pockets.


The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on EVLV

Evolv Technologies' recent performance was impacted by a quarterly loss of $0.01 per share, beating revenue estimates. The company's AI-based bag screening solution, Evolv eXpedite, screened over one million bags since its launch. Unusually large options volume was observed, with investors buying 5,513 call options. Additionally, Mittelman Wealth opened a large stake in the company, purchasing 1,511,866 shares. However, the company faces investigation by Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. and Halper Sadeh LLC regarding potential breaches of fiduciary duties.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Evolv Technology's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Growth Trajectory

Evolv Technology reported a robust Q3 with revenue reaching $42.9 million, a 57% year-over-year increase driven by strong new customer acquisition and expanded deployments within existing customers. Adjusted gross margin stood at 51% in Q3, down from 64% in the same period last year. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. The earnings per share (EPS) was -$0.01, beating estimates of -$0.07.

Publication Date: Nov -23

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue reached $42.9 million, a 57% year-over-year increase driven by new customer acquisitions and expanded deployments.
  • ARR Inflection Point:: 2026 is projected as the year when ARR growth will outpace revenue growth, with 2026 full-year revenue guided at $160–165 million and ARR expected to grow by at least 20%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin:: Positive adjusted EBITDA for the fourth consecutive quarter, with margins at 12% in Q3 and plans to maintain positive cash flow in Q4.
  • New Customer Acquisition:: Over 60 new customers added in Q3, raising year-end active subscription estimates to 8,000–8,100 and expanding deployments in healthcare, sports, and education sectors.
  • eXpedite Traction:: Evolv eXpedite, the AI-powered bag screening solution, screened over 1 million bags in Q3 and added 12 new customers, 11 of whom also purchased the Express platform.

Revenue Growth and Customer Acquisition

The company saw significant growth in its customer base, adding over 60 new customers in Q3. This strong customer acquisition trend is expected to continue, with the company raising its year-end estimate for active subscriptions to between 8,000 and 8,100. The solutions provided by Evolv Technology are being used to screen hundreds of thousands of visitors daily in medical facilities nationwide, indicating a strong demand for its products.

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth

Evolv Technology expects 2026 to be an inflection point where its ARR growth will outpace revenue growth. ARR growth trailed revenue growth in Q3, but the company anticipates this ratio to begin to flip in 2026. The company is modeling full-year 2026 revenue of between $160 million to $165 million, with ARR expected to grow by at least 20%, outpacing total revenue growth.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 7.16 and an EV/EBITDA of -19.29, the market seems to be pricing in a significant growth trajectory for Evolv Technology. The ROE and ROIC are negative, indicating that the company is still in a growth phase and not yet profitable on a net income basis. As the company continues to grow its revenue and expand its customer base, these metrics are expected to improve.

Outlook and Guidance

Evolv Technology is raising its 2025 outlook, expecting to grow revenue by about 37% to 40% compared to the previous guidance of 27% to 30% growth. For 2026, the company expects total revenue to grow by approximately 25% to $160-$165 million, driven by its direct purchase fulfillment model and the shift to full subscription contracts. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 14.6%, indicating a potential slowdown in growth rate, but the company's focus on ARR growth and long-term value drivers is expected to drive future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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Evolv: Prepared To Jump Back In As Conditions Improve (Rating Upgrade)

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Mittelman Wealth Opens Large Evolv Technologies Stake: Is the Growth Stock a Buy?

Nov -21

Source: fool.com

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Archer® Extends Archer Evolv™ Capabilities with Continuous Controls Monitoring to Automate IT Control Assurance

Nov -19

Source: businesswire.com

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Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

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Evolv Surpasses Over One Million Bags Screened by Evolv eXpedite™

Nov -12

Source: businesswire.com

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Evolv Technologies Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (NASDAQ:EVLV)

Nov -12

Source: defenseworld.net

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Halper Sadeh LLC Encourages Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Discuss Their Rights

Oct -27

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.59%)

6. Segments

Leased Equipment

Expected Growth: 9.95%

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s leased equipment growth of 9.95% is driven by increasing demand for AI-powered security screening solutions, expansion into new markets, and growing adoption in high-growth industries such as entertainment and hospitality. Additionally, the company's innovative technology and strategic partnerships contribute to its rapid growth.

Evolv Express Equipment and Related Add-on Accessories

Expected Growth: 10.55%

Evolv Express Equipment and Related Add-on Accessories' 10.55% growth is driven by increasing demand for touchless security screening, rising adoption in education and entertainment venues, and growing need for efficient crowd management solutions. Additionally, Evolv Technologies' innovative AI-powered technology and strategic partnerships are expanding its market share.

Software-as-a-Service and Maintenance

Expected Growth: 11.95%

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s Software-as-a-Service and Maintenance segment growth of 11.95% is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based solutions, rising demand for digital transformation, and growing need for efficient IT infrastructure management. Additionally, the company's expanding customer base, strategic partnerships, and continuous innovation in AI-powered solutions also contribute to this growth.

License Fees

Expected Growth: 11.7%

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s 11.7% growth in License Fees is driven by increasing adoption of its AI-powered security screening solutions, expansion into new markets, and rising demand for touchless security systems. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations have contributed to the growth, as well as the company's ability to upsell and cross-sell its products to existing customers.

Professional Services and Other

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s 10.47% growth in Professional Services and Other is driven by increasing demand for cybersecurity and AI-powered solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, customer satisfaction, and cost optimization has contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Evolv Edge

A compact, AI-powered security screening system that detects and identifies threats in real-time.

Evolv Express

A high-throughput, AI-powered security screening system designed for high-volume venues such as stadiums, arenas, and theme parks.

Evolv Cortex AI

An artificial intelligence-powered software that analyzes sensor data to detect and identify threats in real-time.

Evolv Insights

A data analytics platform that provides insights and trends on security screening operations.

8. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. is moderate due to the presence of alternative security screening technologies.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of Evolv's security screening solutions, which limits the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers of components and materials used in Evolv's products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the growing demand for security screening solutions and the potential for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established competitors in the security screening market, leading to a competitive landscape.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.94%
Debt Cost 10.79%
Equity Weight 99.06%
Equity Cost 10.79%
WACC 10.79%
Leverage 0.95%

11. Quality Control: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Arlo Technologies

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Evolv Technologies Holdings

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Mistras

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

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Bridger Aerospace

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Knightscope

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Iveda Solutions

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.67$

Current Price

6.67$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows