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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments.The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

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1.b. Last Insights on BAER

Bridger Aerospace's recent performance was negatively impacted by the company's founder, Timothy Sheehy, leaving his role as CEO and being sworn in as a US Senator for Montana. This leadership change may have created uncertainty and disrupted the company's operations, contributing to its recent struggles. Additionally, the article "Aerial firefighting companies' new challenge: Keeping up with demand" highlights the intense competition in the aerial firefighting industry, which may have put pressure on Bridger Aerospace's business.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Bridger's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst a Statistically Below-Average Fire Year

Bridger reported a record revenue of $67.9 million for Q3 2025, a 5% increase from $64.5 million in the same period last year. Excluding revenue from return to service work, revenue from ongoing operations grew 5% to $65.7 million. The company's net income for the quarter was $34.5 million, up from $27.3 million in Q3 2024, with earnings per diluted share (EPS) of $0.37, beating estimates of $0.32. Adjusted EBITDA was $49.1 million, a 4% increase from $47 million in Q3 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue Growth:: Q3 2025 revenue hit $67.9M, up 5% YoY, with year-to-date revenue surging 38% to $114.3M despite a below-average fire season.
  • Operational Utilization Surge:: Fleet utilization (days on contract) rose nearly 10% YoY, while multi-mission aircraft flight hours doubled year-over-year.
  • Cost Efficiency Gains:: Cost of revenues declined 9% to $21.1M in Q3 2025 vs. $23M in Q3 2024, driven by lower flight and maintenance expenses.
  • Wildfire Response Impact:: Bridger's scoopers dropped 7.3M gallons of water, supporting 380 fires across 21 states, amid 54K wildfires (50% higher YoY) but 40% fewer acres burned.
  • Net Income Expansion:: Q3 2025 net income reached $34.5M ($0.37 EPS) vs. $27.3M ($0.31 EPS) in Q3 2024, with adjusted EBITDA up to $49.1M (+4.5%).

Operational Highlights

The strong financial performance was underpinned by the company's operational success, with utilization measured in days on contract up almost 10% year-over-year across the fleet. The multi-mission aircraft almost doubled their flight hours, and the Bridger Super Scoopers continued to gain recognition for their effectiveness in initial attack. As Sam Davis, CEO, noted, "We've seen nearly a 9% increase in average flight hours year-to-date for our scoopers," highlighting the increasing importance of their assets in the wildfire management toolbox.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 15.37 and an EV/EBITDA of -2.42, the market appears to be pricing in a certain level of growth for Bridger. The company's ROE of 12.09% and ROIC of 3.95% suggest a relatively efficient use of capital. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 30.2% for next year, which may be achievable given the company's strong track record and the increasing demand for its services.

Future Prospects

Bridger is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing need for its services, with three scoopers entering winter maintenance to ensure flexibility and readiness for the 2026 season. The company is also exploring options for its European-based scoopers, including potentially bringing them to the U.S. market. With a strong operational and financial foundation, Bridger appears poised for continued success in the coming year.

3. NewsRoom

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BAER Upgraded to Outperform on Debt Refinancing & Fleet Growth

Nov -26

Source: zacks.com

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Bridger Aerospace Secures Purchase Agreement for Two Spanish Super Scoopers, Bolstering Aerial Firefighting Power and Paving the Way for 2026 Expansion

Nov -24

Source: globenewswire.com

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Bridger Aerospace Announces CFO Retirement and Succession Plan; Appoints Anne Hayes as Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Ernie Freedman to Board of Directors

Nov -21

Source: globenewswire.com

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Bridger Aerospace Stock Gains After Reporting Y/Y Rise in Q3 Earnings

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:BAER) Short Interest Update

Nov -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bridger Aerospace Announces Schedule for its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Oct -30

Source: globenewswire.com

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Bridger Aerospace Secures $331 Million in New Financing Commitments to Fuel Growth and Fleet Expansion

Oct -29

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.54%)

6. Segments

Fire Suppression

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Bridger Aerospace's Fire Suppression segment growth is driven by increasing wildfires, government investments in forest management, and adoption of advanced firefighting technologies. Rising demand for aerial firefighting services, expansion into new geographic markets, and strategic partnerships also contribute to the 4.5% growth rate.

Aerial Surveillance

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s 4.8% growth in Aerial Surveillance is driven by increasing demand for border security, natural disaster response, and infrastructure monitoring. Government contracts, adoption of advanced drone technologies, and expansion into new markets also contribute to this growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s 4.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for aerial surveillance and reconnaissance services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and its partnerships with government agencies contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Aerial Imagery

High-resolution aerial imagery and geospatial data for various industries such as agriculture, construction, and environmental monitoring

Sensor Integration

Customized sensor integration solutions for various platforms, including drones, aircraft, and satellites

Drone Services

Aerial data collection and analysis services using drones for industries such as construction, agriculture, and environmental monitoring

Satellite Imagery

High-resolution satellite imagery and geospatial data for various industries such as agriculture, construction, and environmental monitoring

Data Analytics

Advanced data analytics and machine learning solutions for extracting insights from aerial and satellite data

Software Solutions

Customized software solutions for aerial and satellite data management, analysis, and visualization

8. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. is moderate due to the presence of alternative products and services in the aerospace and defense industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s products and services, which limits the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the aerospace and defense industry, which gives Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the aerospace and defense industry, which makes it easier for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established players in the aerospace and defense industry, which leads to intense competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 88.58%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 11.42%
Equity Cost 3.27%
WACC 3.87%
Leverage 775.45%

11. Quality Control: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Arlo Technologies

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

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Evolv Technologies Holdings

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.7

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Mistras

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bridger Aerospace

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Knightscope

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Iveda Solutions

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.86$

Current Price

1.86$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows