Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Exagen Inc.develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States.It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).


Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms.The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS.In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d.


Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine.It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers.The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc.


and changed its name to Exagen Inc.in January 2019.Exagen Inc.


was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on XGN

Exagen Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q3 2025 results, with the company reporting a quarterly loss of $0.19 per share, beating revenue estimates. The stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from nine analysts, with eight issuing a buy recommendation. KeyBanc raised its price target to $15 from $12, citing increasing revenue visibility. The company's autoimmune testing solutions segment showed strength, with six abstracts accepted at the 2025 American College of Rheumatology Convergence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Exagen's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Quarter Amidst Challenges

Exagen reported a robust Q3, with revenue growing 19% year-to-date, driven by 8% testing volume growth and 9% Average Selling Price (ASP) expansion. The company's gross margin was 58%, up 260 basis points compared to Q3 2024. However, the net loss for the quarter was $7 million, compared to $5 million in the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $1.9 million, an improvement from $4 million in Q3 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$0.19, missing estimates of -$0.13.

Publication Date: Nov -25

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue reached $17.2 million, a 40% increase over Q3 2024, marking the highest quarter in Exagen’s history.
  • ASP Expansion:: Trailing 12-month ASP rose to $441 per test (+$37 YoY), driven by commercial payer engagement and market access initiatives.
  • Pharma Services Growth:: Generated $800,000 in Q3 from Pharma Services, with year-to-date total reaching $1.2 million, reflecting growing demand for clinical trial assays.
  • Gross Margin Improvement:: Q3 gross margin was 58%, up 260 bps YoY, though slightly down 175 bps on a non-GAAP basis due to new territories diluting revenue per territory.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Ended Q3 with $35.7 million in cash and $11 million in accounts receivable, totaling over $45 million in liquidity, sufficient for runway to positive free cash flow.

Revenue Growth and ASP Expansion

The company's revenue growth was driven by a combination of volume and ASP gains. AVISE CTD testing volume was the highest ever recorded for a third quarter, and the expansion into new territories is starting to pay off. However, ASP growth has been impacted by the loss of a large high ASP direct bill account and slower-than-expected reimbursement for new biomarkers.

Gross Margin and Operating Expenses

Exagen's gross margin was 58%, down 175 basis points from 60% in Q3 2024, excluding the impact of downside revenue adjustments. The company remains focused on driving further ASP expansion and aggressively managing COGS to achieve a mid-60s gross margin over time. Operating expenses were higher due to sales force expansion and other growth initiatives.

Cash Position and Balance Sheet

Exagen ended Q3 with $35.7 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $30 million at the end of Q2. The company's balance sheet is strong, with over $45 million in combined cash and accounts receivable, which is expected to fund its existing business to positive free cash flow.

Outlook and Valuation

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 15.3%. Given the current stock price, the P/S Ratio is 2.91, and the EV/EBITDA is -11.81. These valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. With a ROE of -136.26% and ROIC of -27.88%, the company's profitability is a concern. However, the company's efforts to drive ASP expansion, improve revenue cycle operations, and enhance market access initiatives are expected to drive growth and improve profitability.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Given Consensus Rating of “Moderate Buy” by Analysts

Nov -25

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. to Participate in Fourth Quarter Investor Conferences

Nov -11

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Nov -04

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Receives Consensus Rating of “Moderate Buy” from Analysts

Oct -31

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Exagen Announces Acceptance of Six Abstracts at 2025 American College of Rheumatology Convergence

Oct -23

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

Exagen Inc. to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 4, 2025

Oct -21

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.00%)

6. Segments

Healthcare Insurers

Expected Growth: 12%

Exagen Inc.'s 12% growth in Healthcare Insurers is driven by increasing demand for personalized medicine, adoption of genetic testing, and rising healthcare expenditure. Additionally, the company's focus on autoimmune disease diagnosis and its proprietary AVISE test contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the shift towards value-based care and the need for early disease detection also support the segment's expansion.

Government

Expected Growth: 11%

Exagen Inc.'s 11% growth driven by government segment is attributed to increasing adoption of autoimmune disease diagnostic tests, expansion of existing contracts, and growing demand for precision medicine. Additionally, government initiatives to improve healthcare infrastructure and funding for research and development also contribute to this growth.

Client

Expected Growth: 14%

Exagen Inc.'s 14% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its autoimmune diagnostic tests, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, growing demand for precision medicine and personalized healthcare solutions, as well as investments in research and development, contribute to the company's rapid growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 10%

Exagen Inc.'s 10% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its autoimmune diagnostic tests, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for precision medicine. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in R&D, and a strong sales force contribute to the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

AVISE CTD

A proprietary test that measures the levels of circulating DNA in the blood, which can help diagnose and monitor autoimmune diseases such as lupus.

AVISE MTX

A test that measures the levels of anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (anti-MCV) antibodies in the blood, which can help diagnose and monitor rheumatoid arthritis.

AVISE HCQ

A test that measures the levels of anti-histone antibodies in the blood, which can help diagnose and monitor autoimmune diseases such as lupus.

AVISE SLE Pro

A test that measures the levels of multiple biomarkers in the blood, which can help diagnose and monitor systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

AVISE Lupus

A test that measures the levels of multiple biomarkers in the blood, which can help diagnose and monitor lupus.

8. Exagen Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Exagen Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative diagnostic tests and treatments for autoimmune diseases.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Exagen Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the specialized nature of its diagnostic tests and the lack of direct competition.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Exagen Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers for its diagnostic test components.

Threat Of New Entrants

Exagen Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for diagnostic tests and the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Exagen Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with multiple established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.02%
Debt Cost 9.83%
Equity Weight 51.98%
Equity Cost 9.93%
WACC 9.88%
Leverage 92.36%

11. Quality Control: Exagen Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Aclaris Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Exagen

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
VolitionRx

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Personalis

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
T2 Biosystems

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
DarioHealth

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.4$

Current Price

7.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows