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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gevo, Inc.operates as a renewable fuels company.It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero.


The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives.Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein.Gevo, Inc.


has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc.for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development.The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc.


and changed its name to Gevo, Inc.in March 2006.Gevo, Inc.


was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on GEVO

Gevo, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by several positive developments. The company secured a $1.46 billion conditional loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy, signaling strong government support for its Net-Zero 1 SAF project. Additionally, Gevo sold its remaining 2025 45Z production tax credits for $30 million, bringing the contracted total for the year to $52 million. The company also executed a deal with Biorecro to accelerate multi-year carbon credit offtake and business expansion. Furthermore, Gevo's Q3 2025 earnings call revealed a narrower-than-expected loss.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Gevo's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Step Forward

Gevo reported a significant improvement in its financial performance during Q3 2025, with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 million. The company's cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash stood at $108 million at the end of the quarter. Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $4.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million. The actual EPS came out at '-0.03', beating estimates at '-0.04'. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 43.7%.

Publication Date: Nov -18

📋 Highlights
  • Carbon Credit Monetization: Sold all 2025 carbon credits for $52M, leveraging certifications like Pure Earth’s 1000-year sequestration standard.
  • EBITDA Growth: Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA reached $6.6M, with Gevo North Dakota contributing $17.8M in operational income.
  • Carbon Capture Scale: Sequestered 42,000 tons of CO2 in Q3, with over 550,000 metric tons captured since 2022.
  • CDR Market Expansion: Projected CDR sales to grow from $1M (Q2) to $3–5M by Q4 2025, certified under Pure Earth’s framework.
  • EBITDA Targets: Aiming for $40M–$110M EBITDA growth in 18–24 months via incremental improvements and ethanol plant expansions (75M gallons/year).

Revenue and Margin Analysis

The company's revenue growth is expected to be driven by its expanding carbon business, with 90% of its carbon value being sold in fuels and 10% in separated carbon dioxide removal markets. Gevo's carbon credits are certified under the Pure Earth standard, which is becoming a leading framework for corporate buyers. The company anticipates its CDR sales to grow from $1 million in the second quarter to $3 to $5 million by the end of 2025.

Valuation Metrics

Gevo's current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/S Ratio' of 5.77 and an 'EV/EBITDA' of -22.59. The 'P/E Ratio' stands at -7.63, while the 'P/B Ratio' is at 0.94. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations for the company. As Gevo continues to expand its operations and monetize its carbon business, the company's financial performance is expected to improve, potentially justifying its current valuation.

Growth Prospects

Gevo is well-positioned for growth, with plans to expand its ethanol plant to 75 million gallons per year and increase its adjusted EBITDA substantially through the ATJ 30 project. The company's focus on low-carbon fuel markets and its ability to capture and optimize the value of its carbon dioxide coproduct are expected to drive its growth. As Patrick Gruber stated, "We're excited about the opportunity to expand and deploy our ATJ technology globally."

Carbon Business Expansion

Gevo's carbon business is a key driver of its growth, with the company working to monetize its carbon assets through longer-term contracts and a growth in carbon value from $5 million to $30 million over the next two years. The company's sequestration site directly underneath its plant makes it easier to generate credits, and it is exploring opportunities to use its CO2 capture capacity, including selling it to other companies for use in enhanced oil recovery.

3. NewsRoom

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Comparing Montauk Renewables (NASDAQ:MNTK) & Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO)

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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Gevo North Dakota Sells Its Remaining 2025 45Z Production Tax Credits for $30 Million, Bringing the Contracted Total for the Year to $52 Million

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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Gevo to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 10, 2025

Oct -20

Source: globenewswire.com

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Gevo: Conditional DOE Support Sparks Hope, But Execution Risk Remains High

Oct -16

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Gevo gets extension on US energy department's loan commitment for sustainable aviation fuel project

Oct -14

Source: reuters.com

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Gevo, Inc. - Special Call

Oct -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (13.82%)

6. Segments

Renewable Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 13.88%

Gevo's Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) growth is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon energy solutions, government incentives for renewable energy, and strategic partnerships with industries seeking to reduce their carbon footprint. Additionally, Gevo's proprietary technology and production capacity expansions contribute to the 13.88% growth rate.

Gevo

Expected Growth: 13.38%

Gevo's 13.38% growth is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon renewable fuels, strategic partnerships, and expansion of production capacity. The company's proprietary yeast technology and focus on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) also contribute to its growth. Additionally, government incentives and regulations supporting the transition to cleaner energy sources further boost Gevo's growth prospects.

7. Detailed Products

Renewable Isobutanol

A bio-based alternative to traditional fossil fuels, used as a gasoline blendstock, a specialty chemical, or as a building block for the production of other chemicals.

Renewable Jet Fuel

A sustainable alternative to traditional fossil fuels, used as a drop-in replacement for traditional jet fuel.

Renewable Diesel

A bio-based alternative to traditional fossil fuels, used as a drop-in replacement for traditional diesel fuel.

Succinic Acid

A bio-based chemical used in the production of various products, including plastics, fibers, and lubricants.

1-Butanol

A bio-based chemical used as a solvent, a fuel additive, and as a building block for the production of other chemicals.

8. Gevo, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Gevo, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes as the company operates in the renewable chemicals and biofuels industry, where substitutes are available but not highly competitive.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Gevo, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Gevo, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's scale and diversification efforts mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The renewable chemicals and biofuels industry is attractive, and new entrants may be drawn to the market, posing a significant threat to Gevo, Inc.'s market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The renewable chemicals and biofuels industry is highly competitive, with several established players, leading to intense rivalry and competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 10.97%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 89.03%
Equity Cost 18.37%
WACC 16.79%
Leverage 12.32%

11. Quality Control: Gevo, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Stepan

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Ingevity

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Gevo

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alto Ingredients

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Trinseo

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 1.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Green Plains

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 1.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.29$

Current Price

2.29$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows