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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Green Plains Inc.produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally.It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership.


The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil.The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets.This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers.


The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services.As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars.The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc.


and changed its name to Green Plains Inc.in May 2014.Green Plains Inc.


was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

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1.b. Last Insights on GPRE

Here is a 90-word analysis of the negative drivers behind Green Plains Inc.'s recent performance: Green Plains Inc.'s recent performance was negatively driven by its Q4 2024 earnings miss, with a net loss of $54.9 million, or $(0.86) per diluted share, compared to net income of $7.2 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, in the same period last year. Revenues also decreased by 18% year-over-year to $584.0 million. The company's leadership transition, with CEO Todd Becker departing effective March 1, 2025, may have also contributed to uncertainty.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Green Plains' Earnings Report: A Transformative Quarter

Green Plains Inc. reported a strong third-quarter 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $52.6 million and net income of $11.9 million. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.35, significantly beating estimates of -$0.02952. The company's revenue growth is expected to be -2.5% next year, according to analysts' estimates. Revenue growth was not explicitly mentioned in the earnings call, but the company's operational excellence and improved margin structure are likely to have contributed to its financial performance.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Achieved $52.6M adjusted EBITDA and $11.9M net income, with plants operating at 101% capacity utilization.
  • Debt Restructuring:: Repaid $130M of high-cost debt via asset sales and refinanced $200M in new debt maturing in 2030.
  • Carbon Program Growth:: Recognized $25M in 45Z tax credits in Q3, with $15–25M expected in Q4 and $38M anticipated in 2026.
  • Liquidity Strength:: Holds $211.6M in cash equivalents, $325M revolver availability, and $136.7M in unrestricted liquidity.
  • Operational Efficiency Gains:: Reduced SG&A and plant OpEx, with $188M in carbon-related earnings power projected for 2026.

Operational Excellence

The company's plants ran at over 101% capacity utilization, driven by improved fermentation yields and reduced downtime. According to Chris Osowski, the improvements are due to a "focused effort on blocking and tackling, driving higher yields, and reducing downtime." This operational excellence has likely contributed to the company's improved financial performance.

Balance Sheet Restructuring

Green Plains has restructured its balance sheet, with no significant debt maturities for the next several years. The company has $211.6 million in cash equivalents and restricted cash, $325 million in working capital revolver availability, and $136.7 million in unrestricted liquidity available to corporate. The company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is -2.82, indicating a healthy balance sheet.

Carbon Capture and 45Z Credits

The company's carbon capture systems are operational in all three Nebraska locations, and it has started realizing benefits from the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, recognizing $25 million of production tax credit value during the quarter. Green Plains anticipates another $15 million to $25 million of benefit in the fourth quarter and expects these values to grow in 2026 as it expands the program to all its plants.

Valuation

The company's valuation metrics indicate that it is undervalued. The price-to-book ratio is 0.92, and the EV/EBITDA ratio is -9.68. These metrics suggest that the company's stock may be undervalued, given its improved financial performance and restructured balance sheet.

Outlook

Green Plains is confident in its path ahead, with a focus on operational excellence, discipline, and execution. The company is entering a new chapter built on a simplified business, strengthened liquidity, and a proven ability to deliver. Its carbon strategy is now a reality, with physical CO2 being captured and monetized, and the earnings power of Green Plains is being transformed.

3. NewsRoom

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Raises Position in Green Plains, Inc. $GPRE

Nov -25

Source: defenseworld.net

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52,036 Shares in Green Plains, Inc. $GPRE Purchased by AXQ Capital LP

Nov -25

Source: defenseworld.net

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Green Plains to Participate in 2025 Stephens Annual Investment Conference

Nov -13

Source: businesswire.com

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Has Green Plains (GPRE) Outpaced Other Basic Materials Stocks This Year?

Nov -06

Source:

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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Green Plains Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

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Green Plains to Host Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call on November 5, 2025

Oct -29

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.86%)

6. Segments

Ethanol

Expected Growth: 3%

Green Plains Inc.'s ethanol segment growth is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon fuels, government incentives for biofuels, and rising crude oil prices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, such as Asia, and investments in operational efficiency improvements are expected to contribute to the 3% growth rate.

Agribusiness and Energy

Expected Growth: 2%

Green Plains Inc.'s Agribusiness and Energy segments are driven by increasing global demand for ethanol and animal feed, coupled with strategic acquisitions and capacity expansions. Additionally, government incentives for renewable energy and growing adoption of E15 fuel also contribute to the 2% growth rate.

Partnership

Expected Growth: 4%

Partnership with Green Plains Inc. driven by increasing demand for low-carbon fuels, strategic expansion into new markets, and optimization of production processes. Additionally, the partnership enables access to Green Plains' expertise in ethanol production, further enhancing growth prospects.

7. Detailed Products

Ethanol

A biofuel produced from corn and other plant materials, used as a renewable energy source to power vehicles and other engines.

Distillers Grains

A high-protein animal feed product derived from the ethanol production process, used as a nutritious feed supplement for livestock.

Corn Oil

A vegetable oil extracted from corn, used in food products, biodiesel, and industrial applications.

Protein

A high-protein product derived from the ethanol production process, used as a nutritional supplement in animal feed and human nutrition.

8. Green Plains Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Green Plains Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the company's focus on ethanol production and its established market presence mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Green Plains Inc. due to the company's diversified customer base and the lack of concentration in the market. This reduces the negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for Green Plains Inc. due to the availability of alternative suppliers of corn and other raw materials. However, the company's long-term contracts with suppliers mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Green Plains Inc. due to the high barriers to entry in the ethanol production industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Green Plains Inc. due to the competitive nature of the ethanol production industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.50%
Debt Cost 5.98%
Equity Weight 55.50%
Equity Cost 12.08%
WACC 9.36%
Leverage 80.18%

11. Quality Control: Green Plains Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Ingevity

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Lightwave Logic

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 0.7

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Gevo

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Alto Ingredients

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

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Trinseo

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 1.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

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Green Plains

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 1.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.74$

Current Price

9.74$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows