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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Global Business Travel Group, Inc.provides business-to-business (B2B) travel platform.The company's platform offers a suite of technology-enabled solutions to business travelers and corporate clients, travel content suppliers, and third-party travel agencies.


Its platform manages travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies.The company has built marketplace in B2B travel to deliver unrivalled choice, value, and experiences.Global Business Travel Group, Inc.


is based in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on GBTG

Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q2 earnings, beating estimates with $0.03 per share, and raising its full-year guidance. The pending acquisition of CWT is expected to accelerate margin expansion, adding $75 million in free cash flow next year. The company's adjusted EBITDA margins are set to expand by 130 basis points this year. Additionally, the dismissal of the US Department of Justice lawsuit challenging the CWT acquisition removed a significant overhang. This momentum positions the company for sustained growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Amex GBT's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) reported outstanding results for its third-quarter 2025 earnings, with total transaction value (TTV) growing 23% to $9.5 billion, driven by the acquisition of CWT and 9% growth in the core business. Revenue grew 13% to $674 million, with an adjusted gross profit margin of 60%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 9% to $128 million, and free cash flow was $38 million. The actual EPS came out at '-0.07' relative to estimates at '0.1202', indicating a loss.

Publication Date: Dec -25

📋 Highlights
  • TTV Surge:: Total transaction value (TTV) grew 23% to $9.5 billion, driven by CWT acquisition and 9% core business growth.
  • Revenue and Profit Growth:: Revenue rose 13% to $674 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 9% to $128 million and free cash flow at $38 million.
  • CWT Synergies:: Acquisition expected to deliver $155 million in net cost synergies over three years.
  • 2025 Guidance Raised:: Revenue targeted $2.705B–$2.725B (12% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $523M–$533M; 2026 preliminary guidance forecasts 19–21% revenue growth.
  • SME Growth Opportunity:: $625 billion unmanaged SME market opportunity, with 95% core customer retention and 80% SAP Concur SME customer alignment.

Financial Performance Highlights

The company's core business performance was in line with expectations, with a customer retention rate of 95% over the last 12 months. The acquisition of CWT is expected to deliver $155 million in net cost synergies over three years. Amex GBT raised its full-year 2025 guidance, with revenue expected to be $2.705 billion to $2.725 billion, representing approximately 12% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $523 million to $533 million.

Growth Prospects and Strategic Initiatives

Amex GBT has a strong value proposition for SMEs, with an estimated $625 billion of the global SME opportunity unmanaged, representing a long runway for future growth. The company's strategic alliance with SAP Concur is expected to strengthen its value proposition, accelerate growth, and develop a larger expense revenue stream. As Karen Williams stated, "We've given the preliminary expectations for 2026 based upon what we see today." The company expects top-line growth not currently reflected in consensus or sell-side analyst estimates.

Valuation and Outlook

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 20.0%. With a P/S Ratio of 1.45 and EV/EBITDA of 12.39, the market seems to have a reasonable expectation of the company's growth prospects. The company's ROE is 0.82%, and ROIC is 0.58%, indicating a relatively low return on equity and invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 2.77, suggesting a moderate level of debt. As the company continues to execute its strategic initiatives, including the integration of CWT and the launch of a next-gen Egencia Travel and Expense solution, it is well-positioned to drive growth and create value for shareholders.

Future Expectations

For full-year 2026, Amex GBT expects 19% to 21% revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of $615 million to $645 million, representing 16% to 22% year-over-year growth. The guidance philosophy remains based on observed trends. The SAP Concur partnership is expected to accelerate SME growth, particularly with the new flagship Complete T&E product, and unlock the unmanaged segment.

3. NewsRoom

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American Express Global Business Travel Reduces Interest Rate and Increases Liquidity

Jan -21

Source: businesswire.com

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Carronade Capital Management LP Reduces Stock Holdings in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. $GBTG

Dec -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Why One Investor Made a $58 Million Bet on This Travel Platform Stock

Nov -29

Source: fool.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -10

Source: zacks.com

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American Express Global Business Travel Reports 13% Revenue Growth and 9% Adjusted EBITDA Growth in Q3 2025

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

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Boundary Creek Takes $2.7 Million Share Position in Global Business Travel Group (GBTG)

Nov -08

Source: fool.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. $GBTG Shares Sold by Ethic Inc.

Nov -01

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.60%)

6. Segments

Travel

Expected Growth: 8%

Global Business Travel Group's 8% growth is driven by increasing corporate travel demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and mobile apps has enhanced the user experience, leading to higher customer retention and increased bookings. Furthermore, the growing trend of bleisure travel and the rise of the gig economy are also contributing to the company's growth.

Products and Professional Services

Expected Growth: 6%

The 6% growth in Products and Professional Services from Global Business Travel Group, Inc. is driven by increasing corporate travel demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and data analytics has enhanced its service offerings, leading to higher customer retention and acquisition rates.

7. Detailed Products

Travel Management

A comprehensive travel management solution that helps companies manage their business travel programs, including booking, expense reporting, and travel policy compliance.

Meetings and Events

A specialized service that helps plan, execute, and manage meetings and events, including venue selection, catering, and logistics.

Traveler Risk Management

A solution that helps companies identify, assess, and mitigate travel-related risks, including duty of care, travel alerts, and emergency response.

Expense Management

A platform that streamlines expense reporting, approval, and reimbursement, ensuring compliance with company policies and regulatory requirements.

Business Intelligence and Analytics

A data analytics platform that provides insights into travel spend, behavior, and trends, enabling data-driven decisions and cost optimization.

8. Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Global Business Travel Group, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative travel management companies and online booking platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the large number of travel management companies and online booking platforms available, giving customers a wide range of options.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large scale of operations and ability to negotiate better rates with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is medium due to the moderate barriers to entry in the travel management industry, including the need for significant investment in technology and infrastructure.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the travel management industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 53.30%
Debt Cost 6.99%
Equity Weight 46.70%
Equity Cost 6.99%
WACC 6.99%
Leverage 114.16%

11. Quality Control: Global Business Travel Group, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Calix

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Unity Software

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Intapp

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.7

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Freshworks

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.0

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GBTG

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Rumble

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.61$

Current Price

5.61$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows