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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Global Business Travel Group, Inc.provides business-to-business (B2B) travel platform.The company's platform offers a suite of technology-enabled solutions to business travelers and corporate clients, travel content suppliers, and third-party travel agencies.


Its platform manages travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies.The company has built marketplace in B2B travel to deliver unrivalled choice, value, and experiences.Global Business Travel Group, Inc.


is based in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on GBTG

Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q2 earnings, beating estimates with $0.03 per share, and raising its full-year guidance. The pending acquisition of CWT is expected to accelerate margin expansion, adding $75 million in free cash flow next year. The company's adjusted EBITDA margins are set to expand by 130 basis points this year. Additionally, the dismissal of the US Department of Justice lawsuit challenging the CWT acquisition removed a significant overhang. This momentum positions the company for sustained growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Amex GBT's Strong Q3 2025 Results: A Turning Point for Growth?

American Express Global Business Travel reported robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching $674 million, up 13% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 9% to $128 million, and the company generated $38 million of free cash flow. However, the actual EPS came out at -$0.07, missing estimates of $0.1202. The adjusted gross profit margin stood at 60%, indicating a stable profitability profile.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • TTV Growth Accelerated:: Total transaction value (TTV) surged 23% YoY, driving 13% revenue growth in Q3 2025.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $128M, with full-year 2025 guidance raised to $523M–$533M.
  • CWT Acquisition Impact:: Closed $1.1B CWT acquisition, targeting $155M in synergies by 2026, boosting full-year revenue guidance to $2.705B–$2.725B.
  • Free Cash Flow Generation:: Generated $38M in Q3 free cash flow, with full-year 2025 guidance at $90M–$110M, excluding CWT and M&A costs.
  • SME Growth Runway:: < 10% SME segment penetration in travel, with SAP Concur partnership targeting 80% of SMEs for next-gen travel & expense solutions in 2026.

Growth Acceleration and Synergies

The acquisition of CWT has been a significant catalyst for growth, with the company now expecting to deliver $155 million in synergies. As Karen Williams noted, "We are confident in the midpoint of our previous guidance," and the company is already making progress on integration. The partnership with SAP Concur is also expected to drive growth, particularly in the SME segment, where Amex GBT sees a significant runway for expansion.

Outlook and Valuation

For 2026, the company forecasts 19% to 21% revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of $615 million to $645 million. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 17.5% for next year. With a P/S Ratio of 1.34 and EV/EBITDA of 8.78, the stock appears reasonably valued. However, the P/E Ratio of 348.82 raises concerns about the stock's valuation. The company's ROE of 0.82% and ROIC of 0.39% indicate room for improvement in returns.

Key Drivers and Risks

The company's growth prospects are tied to its ability to integrate CWT, drive synergies, and expand in the SME segment. The partnership with SAP Concur is a key driver, and the development of Agentic AI capabilities is expected to improve revenue performance and customer experience. Risks include integration challenges, competitive pressures, and potential economic downturns.

Conclusion on Financial Health

The company's leverage ratio stands at 1.9x, slightly up from last quarter due to the CWT acquisition funding. The Free Cash Flow Yield of 3.66% is attractive, indicating a reasonable valuation. Overall, Amex GBT's strong Q3 results and growth prospects make it an interesting stock to watch, but investors should be cautious about the valuation and potential risks.

3. NewsRoom

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Why One Investor Made a $58 Million Bet on This Travel Platform Stock

Nov -29

Source: fool.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Nov -10

Source: zacks.com

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American Express Global Business Travel Reports 13% Revenue Growth and 9% Adjusted EBITDA Growth in Q3 2025

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

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Boundary Creek Takes $2.7 Million Share Position in Global Business Travel Group (GBTG)

Nov -08

Source: fool.com

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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. $GBTG Shares Sold by Ethic Inc.

Nov -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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American Express Global Business Travel to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 10, 2025

Oct -27

Source: businesswire.com

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Amex GBT Completes Acquisition of CWT

Sep -02

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.60%)

6. Segments

Travel

Expected Growth: 8%

Global Business Travel Group's 8% growth is driven by increasing corporate travel demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and mobile apps has enhanced the user experience, leading to higher customer retention and increased bookings. Furthermore, the growing trend of bleisure travel and the rise of the gig economy are also contributing to the company's growth.

Products and Professional Services

Expected Growth: 6%

The 6% growth in Products and Professional Services from Global Business Travel Group, Inc. is driven by increasing corporate travel demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and data analytics has enhanced its service offerings, leading to higher customer retention and acquisition rates.

7. Detailed Products

Travel Management

A comprehensive travel management solution that helps companies manage their business travel programs, including booking, expense reporting, and travel policy compliance.

Meetings and Events

A specialized service that helps plan, execute, and manage meetings and events, including venue selection, catering, and logistics.

Traveler Risk Management

A solution that helps companies identify, assess, and mitigate travel-related risks, including duty of care, travel alerts, and emergency response.

Expense Management

A platform that streamlines expense reporting, approval, and reimbursement, ensuring compliance with company policies and regulatory requirements.

Business Intelligence and Analytics

A data analytics platform that provides insights into travel spend, behavior, and trends, enabling data-driven decisions and cost optimization.

8. Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Global Business Travel Group, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative travel management companies and online booking platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the large number of travel management companies and online booking platforms available, giving customers a wide range of options.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large scale of operations and ability to negotiate better rates with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is medium due to the moderate barriers to entry in the travel management industry, including the need for significant investment in technology and infrastructure.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the travel management industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 53.30%
Debt Cost 6.99%
Equity Weight 46.70%
Equity Cost 6.99%
WACC 6.99%
Leverage 114.16%

11. Quality Control: Global Business Travel Group, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Calix

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Freshworks

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Intapp

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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GBTG

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Unity Software

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Rumble

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.92$

Current Price

7.92$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows