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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Ecuador.As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved undeveloped reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Colombia.The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on GTE

Here is a 90-word analysis of the negative drivers behind Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s recent stock performance: Gran Tierra Energy's recent earnings release revealed a loss of $34.2 million in its fourth quarter, with a per-share loss of $1.04. The company's high operating costs and strategic debt management efforts are likely weighing on its performance. Additionally, the company's 2025 guidance may have fallen short of expectations, contributing to the negative sentiment. The recent joint venture transaction and partnership with Logan Energy Corp. may not have provided the expected boost, and investors may be concerned about the company's ability to navigate the challenging energy industry landscape.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Gran Tierra Energy's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Production Growth

Gran Tierra Energy reported a significant increase in production, averaging 42,685 BOE per day in Q3 2025, up 30% from the previous year. However, the company's EPS came out at -$0.54, missing estimates of -$0.23. The revenue growth was driven by the Canadian acquisition and exploration success in Ecuador. The operating cash flow was $48 million, up 39% from Q2, and the company ended the quarter with $49 million in cash and a net debt position of approximately $755 million.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • Prepayment Facility Secured: $150M initial advance from a 4-year facility at SOFR+3.8%, with $50M potential, secured by Ecuadorian crude production.
  • Production Growth: 30% YoY increase to 42,685 BOE/day (Q3 2025), driven by Canadian acquisition and Ecuador exploration, despite temporary disruptions.
  • Strong Cash Flow: Generated $48M operating cash flow (39% QoQ growth) with $49M cash balance, but net debt remains at $755M.
  • Operational Momentum: Colombia's northern area production doubled via waterflood success; Ecuador achieves record output post-exploration commitments.
  • 2026 Free Cash Flow Focus: Capital spending to decline, with budget release in December outlining debt reduction roadmap and free cash flow strategies.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational strength was evident in its record production in Ecuador and successful drilling in Canada. The waterflood in Colombia continues to deliver excellent results, with production more than doubling in the northern area. The company completed all exploration commitments in Ecuador and is now focused on increasing production and establishing a development phase.

Financial Flexibility and Debt Reduction

Gran Tierra Energy secured a new prepayment facility backed by Ecuadorian crude production, with an initial advance of $150 million and potential for another $50 million. The facility has a 4-year term with a price of SOFR plus 3.8%. The company plans to provide a clear roadmap for debt reduction when it releases its 2026 budget. According to Ryan Ellson, "the company is laser-focused on generating free cash flow in 2026 and beyond, and will continue to look at optimizing the portfolio through asset sales."

Valuation and Growth Prospects

The company's P/S Ratio is 0.26, indicating that investors are pricing in moderate revenue growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.4%. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 0.69, suggesting that Gran Tierra Energy's enterprise value is relatively low compared to its EBITDA. However, the company's high Net Debt / EBITDA ratio indicates a significant debt burden. The ROE is -28.79%, reflecting the company's current net loss position.

Outlook and Expectations

Gran Tierra Energy expects to finish the year strong, with an expected exit rate of 47,000 to 50,000 BOE per day. The company is focused on generating free cash flow in 2026 and beyond. The 2026 capital program is expected to be released in mid-December, with a decrease in capital expenditures and emphasis on free cash flow generation.

3. NewsRoom

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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Announces Amendment of the Previously Announced Exchange Offer of Certain Existing Notes for New Notes and the Solicitation of Consents to Proposed Amendments to the Existing Indenture

Feb -05

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Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) Soared This Week. Here is Why

Jan -31

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Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Jan -30

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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Provides Operations Update and Certain Preliminary Unaudited 2025 Financial Data

Jan -29

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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Announces Exchange Offer of Certain Existing Notes for New Notes and the Solicitation of Consents to Proposed Amendments to the Existing Indenture

Jan -29

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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Reports Seventh Consecutive Year of South American Reserves Growth

Jan -29

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Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Canadian Natural Resources, InPlay Oil and Gran Tierra

Jan -19

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Canadian E&P Industry Outlook 2026 and 3 Stocks to Watch

Jan -16

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.00%)

6. Segments

Oil and Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s 3.0 growth in Oil and Natural Gas is driven by increased production from Colombian assets, successful exploration and development activities, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiencies, cost reductions, and favorable oil prices contribute to the growth. The company's focus on high-impact exploration and development of existing assets also supports the growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. is a leading independent oil and gas company that explores, develops, and produces crude oil in South America.

Natural Gas

The company also explores, develops, and produces natural gas in South America, providing a clean-burning fuel for power generation and industrial processes.

Condensate

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. produces condensate, a type of light oil, in its operations in South America.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

The company also produces NGLs, which are used as a feedstock for petrochemicals and as a fuel for power generation.

8. Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. operates in the oil and gas industry, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing focus on renewable energy sources and electric vehicles may pose a threat to the company's operations.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. sells its products to a diverse range of customers, reducing the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are essential to its customers' operations, giving Gran Tierra Energy Inc. an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its operations. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers may still have some leverage in negotiations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to join the market, reducing the threat of new competition for Gran Tierra Energy Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Gran Tierra Energy Inc. must continually innovate and improve its operations to remain competitive in this environment.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 58.34%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 41.66%
Equity Cost 11.66%
WACC 7.16%
Leverage 140.05%

11. Quality Control: Gran Tierra Energy Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lucero Energy

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Ring Energy

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vital Energy

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Gran Tierra Energy

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Amplify Energy

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.12$

Current Price

8.12$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows