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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States.It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance.The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.


MediaAlpha, Inc.is a subsidiary of White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.

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1.b. Last Insights on MAX

The recent performance of MediaAlpha, Inc. was negatively impacted by a Q4 earnings miss, with the company reporting a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago, and a subsequent earnings miss of $0.24 per share in Q4 2024. Additionally, the company faced a series of investigations and lawsuits, including securities fraud allegations, which may have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the company. Furthermore, the company's financial performance was not strong enough to offset the rising costs, and the company's growth prospects were not as robust as expected.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. MediaAlpha's Q4 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Robust Year

Adjusted EBITDA came in above expectations, with the company generating $99 million in free cash flow in 2025. This was a significant beat, driven by the company's focus on optimizing its operations and improving its risk profile. The company's P&C business is off to a strong start in 2026, with carriers remaining solidly profitable and focusing on customer growth, leading to increased competition and advertising budgets.

Publication Date: Mar -09

📋 Highlights
  • P&C Insurance Vertical Growth:: Strong performance in auto insurance, driving 35% growth in 2026 with increased carrier and agent ad spend.
  • Free Cash Flow & Share Repurchases:: Generated $99M in 2025 FCF and returned $47.3M via buybacks; expects $90–$100M in 2026 FCF.
  • Q4 2025 Financial Outcomes:: Adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance high-end, while transaction value slightly missed due to P&C seasonality normalization.
  • 2026 Transaction Value Guidance:: Targets $570–$595M (23% YoY growth), with P&C contributing 35% growth amid competitive ad budgets.
  • AI Impact on Search:: 20% YoY click volume increase in Q4 from AI-driven search, creating new ad channels while maintaining carrier system integrations.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.5, beating analyst estimates of $0.25. This was a significant beat, driven by the company's strong operational performance and its ability to optimize its costs.

Impact of AI on MediaAlpha's Business

As the company looks to 2026, it expects to benefit from the growing trend towards a more open marketplace, with private transaction value decreasing and open transaction value increasing. The company's focus on platform solutions capabilities, offering hosted optimized conversion experiences to underpenetrated carriers, is expected to drive growth and enable these carriers to optimize campaigns and be more competitive in the marketplace.

Valuation and Outlook

As the company looks to the future, it is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for insurance products and to continue its strong performance. With a solid track record of execution and a clear strategy for growth, MediaAlpha is poised for continued success in the years to come.

3. NewsRoom

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MAX Power Closes $20.5 Million Brokered Offering With Eric Sprott as Lead Order

Mar -20

Source: globenewswire.com

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MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE:MAX) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” by Analysts

Mar -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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MAX Power Announces $20 Million Brokered Offering

Mar -09

Source: globenewswire.com

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Air Canada's Fleet Transformation Takes Flight as 737 MAX Aircraft Begin Air Canada Rouge Service

Mar -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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RECX Appoints TRL Outdoors to Accelerate MAX ATV Dealer Expansion and Commercial Market Growth

Feb -27

Source: globenewswire.com

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Max Resource Confirms Continuation of Mineralization from Underground Channel Sampling Program on the Mora Gold Silver Property in Colombia

Feb -26

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

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MediaAlpha (MAX) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Feb -24

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.90%)

6. Segments

Health Insurance

Expected Growth: 8.23%

MediaAlpha's Health Insurance segment growth of 8.23% is driven by increasing healthcare expenditure, an aging population, and government initiatives promoting health insurance adoption. Additionally, the company's digital marketing platform and data analytics capabilities enable insurers to effectively target and engage with customers, further fueling growth.

Property & Casualty Insurance

Expected Growth: 7.4%

MediaAlpha's Property & Casualty Insurance growth of 7.4% is driven by increasing online insurance shopping, rising demand for digital insurance platforms, and strategic partnerships with top carriers. Additionally, the company's data-driven marketing approach and proprietary technology platform enable efficient customer acquisition and retention, contributing to the segment's rapid growth.

Life Insurance

Expected Growth: 7.43%

MediaAlpha's 7.43% growth in Life Insurance is driven by increasing demand for online insurance platforms, strategic partnerships with leading carriers, and targeted marketing efforts. Additionally, the company's data-driven approach to customer acquisition and retention, as well as its user-friendly online experience, contribute to its rapid expansion in the life insurance market.

Other

Expected Growth: 10.43%

MediaAlpha's 10.43% growth is driven by increasing demand for insurance comparison platforms, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's proprietary technology and data analytics capabilities also contribute to its growth, enabling it to optimize customer acquisition costs and improve conversion rates.

7. Detailed Products

MediaAlpha for Advertisers

A platform that enables advertisers to reach their target audience across multiple channels, including search, display, and native ads.

MediaAlpha for Publishers

A solution that helps publishers monetize their online properties by connecting them with top advertisers and optimizing ad revenue.

MediaAlpha for Agencies

A platform that enables agencies to manage multiple client campaigns across various channels, including search, social, and display ads.

MediaAlpha for Data Providers

A solution that enables data providers to monetize their data assets by connecting them with advertisers and agencies.

8. MediaAlpha, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

MediaAlpha, Inc. operates in a niche market, but there are some substitutes available. However, the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

MediaAlpha, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are highly specialized, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

MediaAlpha, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its operations. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size and reputation, suppliers still have some leverage in negotiations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The digital marketing industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily enter the market. MediaAlpha, Inc. must continuously innovate and improve its products and services to stay ahead of new competitors.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The digital marketing industry is highly competitive, and MediaAlpha, Inc. faces intense rivalry from established players. The company must focus on differentiating its products and services to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 106.24%
Debt Cost 8.81%
Equity Weight -6.24%
Equity Cost 10.57%
WACC 8.70%
Leverage -1701.99%

11. Quality Control: MediaAlpha, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Groupon

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
MediaAlpha

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
comScore

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vivid Seats

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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BuzzFeed

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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TrueCar

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.59$

Current Price

9.59$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows