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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States.The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy.It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services.


As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites.National Vision Holdings, Inc.was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on EYE

National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong Q2 earnings and revenue beats, with sales acceleration and margin expansion. The company's transformation program and lifestyle selling approach are yielding results. Premium frame sales are rising, and managed care strategy is driving higher-value customers. The company raised its FY25 guidance, signaling a clear inflection point. A recent presentation at the Goldman Sachs 32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference highlighted the company's progress. Rating upgrades reflect the successful turnaround strategy.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. National Vision's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report

National Vision delivered a robust third quarter 2025, with net revenue increasing by 7.9% to drive adjusted operating income of $19.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.13 per share, beating estimates of $0.12. The company's adjusted operating margin expanded by 90 basis points, driven by a successful strategy focusing on higher-value customers and enhancing the patient and customer experience. The revenue growth was fueled by an adjusted comparable store sales growth of 7.7%, with managed care business seeing comp sales growth in the low teens.

Publication Date: Nov -29

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted Comp Growth:: 7.7% year-over-year driven by higher-value customer mix and enhanced patient experience.
  • Operating Margin Expansion:: 90 basis points increase YoY due to traffic-neutral performance and higher average ticket.
  • Managed Care Sales:: Low teens comp growth with penetration rising at low double digits toward 50% target.
  • Revenue Guidance Raised:: $1.97B–$1.99B for 2025, up from prior expectations, with 53rd week adding $35M net revenue.
  • Meta Glasses Pilot:: Expanded to 250 stores with top-tier sell-through performance in initial 50 locations.

Business Performance

The company's efforts to evolve its customer mix towards higher-value segments are yielding positive results, with growth in progressive lens wearers and outside Rx customers. The launch of the "Every Eye Deserves Better" campaign for America's Best has resulted in a significant increase in unaided brand awareness. The company is also seeing success with its first journeys targeting lapsed customers, with significant improvement in click-through and open rates.

Financial Guidance

National Vision raised its expectations for the year, expecting revenue of $1.97 billion to $1.99 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of 5% to 6%, adjusted operating income of $92 million to $98 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.63 to $0.71. The company's outlook includes the benefit of the 53rd week, which is expected to add approximately $35 million of net revenue and approximately $3 million of adjusted operating income for the year.

Valuation Metrics

With the current 'P/E Ratio' not available due to negative earnings in the past, we can look at other metrics such as 'P/S Ratio' at 1.19 and 'EV/EBITDA' at 23.29 to understand what's priced in. The 'P/B Ratio' is 2.66, indicating a relatively stable valuation. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.0%, which may impact the stock's performance.

Operational Highlights

The company is making progress in doctor recruiting and availability, with a recruiting rate of over 10% of the graduating class every year. The Meta glasses pilot is scaling to 250 stores, with great performance in the first 50 locations. The company is also shifting its focus to more targeted digital assets to better engage with managed care customers.

3. NewsRoom

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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Presents at Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Atika Capital Management LLC Buys Shares of 414,200 National Vision Holdings, Inc. $EYE

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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National Vision Announces Participation in Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference

Nov -26

Source: businesswire.com

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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

Nov -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

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New Investment Thesis: Fund Picks Optical Retailer Stock

Nov -21

Source: fool.com

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National Vision Holdings, Inc. Details Transformation Strategy and Long-Term Financial Objectives Underpinning Bold Reinvention

Nov -17

Source: businesswire.com

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Sells 12,764 Shares of National Vision Holdings, Inc. $EYE

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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Critical Contrast: Albertsons Companies (NYSE:ACI) versus National Vision (NASDAQ:EYE)

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.67%)

6. Segments

Owned & Host

Expected Growth: 2%

National Vision Holdings' Owned & Host segment growth is driven by increasing demand for affordable eye care, expansion of on-site managed vision care services, and strategic partnerships with leading retailers, resulting in a 2% growth rate.

Corporate/Other

Expected Growth: 1%

National Vision Holdings' Corporate/Other segment growth is driven by strategic investments in technology, expansion of its e-commerce platform, and increased focus on cost savings initiatives, resulting in improved operational efficiency and enhanced customer experience.

Legacy

Expected Growth: -1%

National Vision Holdings' legacy segment growth rate of -1% is driven by declining same-store sales, increased competition from online eyewear retailers, and a shift in consumer spending habits towards more affordable and convenient options. Additionally, the segment's high dependence on mature markets and lack of innovation in product offerings have contributed to the decline.

Reconciliations

Expected Growth: 3%

National Vision Holdings' 3% growth is driven by increasing demand for eye care services, expansion of insurance coverage, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives, improved operational efficiency, and effective inventory management have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the rise of online eye care platforms and telemedicine services have also boosted the company's revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Eyeglasses

National Vision Holdings, Inc. offers a wide range of eyeglasses for men, women, and children, including designer frames, value frames, and kids' frames.

Contact Lenses

The company provides a variety of contact lenses, including daily disposables, monthly disposables, and color contact lenses.

Sunglasses

National Vision Holdings, Inc. offers a selection of sunglasses, including prescription sunglasses and non-prescription sunglasses.

Eye Exams

The company provides comprehensive eye exams, including contact lens fittings and medical eye exams.

Lasik Surgery

National Vision Holdings, Inc. offers LASIK surgery through its partnership with LASIK providers.

Managed Vision Care

The company provides managed vision care services, including network management and claims administration.

8. National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates in the retail optical industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative options for consumers, such as online eyewear retailers, the need for professional eye exams and personalized service limits the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

National Vision Holdings, Inc. has a large customer base, but individual customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's scale and market presence.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

National Vision Holdings, Inc. relies on a diverse supplier base for its optical products, which limits the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for certain products may give them some bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The retail optical industry has moderate barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and the need for significant capital investment. This limits the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The retail optical industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. National Vision Holdings, Inc. faces intense competition from other optical retailers, which may lead to pricing pressure and advertising wars.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 38.67%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 61.33%
Equity Cost 11.28%
WACC 8.44%
Leverage 63.07%

11. Quality Control: National Vision Holdings, Inc. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Hour Loop

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
National Vision

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

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CarParts

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Solo Brands

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Beyond

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 0.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Sportsman's Warehouse

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

29.28$

Current Price

29.28$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows